Trump's power is so 'illusory' that 'even MAGA voters have taken notice': analysis

Washington Monthly reporter David Atkins said despondency about the future — or “doomerism” — on social media is not-entirely-unearned with President Donald Trump threatening to upend the constitutional republic system of government and usher in a new age of authoritarianism.

Atkins pointed out that Trump is indeed using the Justice Department to persecute political opponents, and deploying the military in American cities. He’s also openly blackmailing corporations and state governments by threatening to withhold media licenses and merger approvals. Additionally, Atkins observed a compliant MAGA-stacked Supreme Court is standing by while Trump pushes state legislators to gerrymander Congress to favor GOP constituencies.

“But despair is the wrong choice,” said Atkins, because while the Supreme Court is "giving Trump almost everything he wants," lower courts and other sectors of the government are putting up severe resistance.

And Atkins noted that Trump has a significant popularity problem.

“For dictators to overthrow democracies, they typically must be largely popular and partially solve (or convince people they have solved) deep-seated problems the majority want fixed,” said Atkins. “The Axis dictators in 1930s Europe were taking over basket case economies and unstable governments. President Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador both became wildly popular by implementing brutal crackdowns on criminal activity that was hobbling their nations.”

But Trump has no such claim. Crime in the United States has been falling for decades. And while immigration problems did annoy voters, “an overwhelming supermajority prefers tightened borders alongside empathetic asylum protections and pathways to citizenship for those already here.”

Trump was reelected in 2024 primarily on promises to reduce the cost of living, but his tariffs have instead “substantially increased prices” according to Atkins, to the point where "even MAGA voters have taken notice, and Trump’s handling of the economy is deeply underwater with voters."

“Trump and his regime are extremely unpopular. His net approval is underwater by 11 points. The intensity gap is worse: The number of voters who strongly disapprove of his presidency is double that of those who strongly approve. Trump’s previously unshakeable hold on non-voters has also slipped,” Atkins said.

“That Trump is pushing states to gerrymander [districts] mid-decade is an indication that he both fears the upcoming midterms and expects them to be determined by actual voters. Otherwise, there would be no need to bully Republican governors and statehouses to redraw the lines,” Atkins said.

And as a lame-duck president, Trump is in an extremely weak position to attempt to overrun American democracy because there appears to be no clear successor to take over the MAGA movement when he’s gone. Trump’s “charismatic appeal to lower-information voters” is unique.

“So, yes, there is reason to fear the worst,” said Atkins, “but … Trump’s power is, in many ways, an illusory projection based on our democracy’s willingness to acquiesce. The doomers are wrong.”

Read the Washington Monthly report at this link.