U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the signing ceremony for an executive order on mail ballots, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., March 31, 2026. REUTERS Evan Vucci
Douglas MacKinnon, who served in the White House as a writer for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush and later he served in a joint command at the Pentagon, has been in the coal mine of politics long enough to see when a canary is choking.
And Republicans’ bird is cooked if they don’t open their eyes and ears to voters — quick.
“As we rapidly approach the midterms in November and the 2028 presidential election, history and reality are working against the Republicans,” MacKinnon told the Hill. “History reminds us that in 20 of the last 22 midterm elections, the party not occupying the Oval Office gained ground. That, coupled with the reality of more and more working-class Americans struggling economically, should be a five-alarm warning for Republicans. Yet, so many seem blissfully oblivious to it all.”
So-called election experts — who keep being wrong — remain the go-to people for much of the media, despite many of them living in bubbles far away from Main Street and working-class voting population. MacKinnon, however, grew up in poverty, and he says his “rich friends are getting richer” in Trump’s economy despite the administration claiming “until the cows come home that the stock market is doing great.”
“Politics, like much of life, is cyclical. Democrats used to be really good at addressing bread and butter issues. Then Republicans cleverly hijacked that winning formula. And now, it seems to be swinging back toward the Democrats,” he said.
But it’s not just bread and butter issues, he added. The party is putting up some very flawed candidates this year.
“Republicans are wasting time and money attacking [Democratic senate candidate James] Talarico’s personal life,” he said while voters are not missing the horrible flaws in Republican candidate Ken Paxton. That, and “working-class Texas feels shunned by Republicans promoting what is supposed to be a great economy based on 401(k) performances.”
And things are no better in the Florida governor’s race, said MacKinnon, with many voters feeling Ron DeSantis’ wife Casey to have been a shoe in to replace the term-limited governor.
“But we will never know,” complained MacKinnon. “President Trump … endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) before the Republican primary for governor had even begun. The primary is still coming up, but Donalds will be the Republican nominee.”
Meanwhile Donalds is already “getting pounded by negative attack ads” that will be used against him by eventual Democratic nominee David Jolly — formerly a Republican but now a Democrat.
“Florida Republicans I know are nervous,” said MacKinnon.
“I am no expert, but if I were the Republican leadership, I might be trying to figure out how to get some emergency oxygen to these canaries before it is too late,” he concluded.
