'Trump knows he's in trouble': Expert says 'jobs recession' could cost GOP in midterms

One expert says President Donald Trump "knows he's in trouble" given how voters are perceiving his management of the economy, and that Republicans in Congress are fighting an uphill battle to stay in power after this fall's midterm elections.

In a Friday segment on MS NOW, former CNN host John Harwood – who is now a distinguished fellow at Duke University — said Americans connect the poor economy "directly" to Trump's tariffs on U.S. trade partners. He noted that despite Trump campaigning to undo economic conditions under former President Joe Biden "on day one," most Americans' conditions "have gotten a little worse" since Trump's second term began. He added that Trump's lack of focus on kitchen-table issues has only built up more resentment among the public.

"People can see that they've gotten worse because of things he has done. He has done including these tariff policies. And they also see that he's not focused on their issues," Harwood said. "... He's focused on pardons, on starting a war with Venezuela, on renaming the Kennedy Center and doing all sorts of things that are not about the pocketbook of the average person."

Currently, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is weighing whether to uphold Trump's tariffs that he imposed under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. Harwood predicted that Republicans would secretly "be delighted" if SCOTUS invalidated Trump's tariffs, as it would improve the economy and " reduce some of the crazy uncertainty that businesses have to deal with." Still, Harwood observed that the jobs market would likely remain difficult for Americans looking for full-time employment in 2026, and that those Americans would hold that against the GOP majority in November.

"Americans know that jobs are harder to get now than they were a year ago. The labor market has cooled down considerably. There hasn't been much job creation lately," he said. "You can't talk people out of that, just like you can't talk them into thinking that their grocery costs have gone down."

"We're not in a what economists call a recession because the GDP is still growing," he continued. "But for all practical purposes, a jobs recession is what ordinary Americans think of as a recession, right? ... It's going in the wrong direction and it's going in the wrong direction as they head into an election year. Republicans know it. This is one of the reasons why Democrats are headed for a strong midterm election unless things change."

Watch Harwood's segment below:

- YouTube www.youtube.com