President Donald Trump returns to the White House, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Washington, D.C., March 1, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
President Donald Trump and his administration have taken every opportunity to claim a "great victory in Iran," but according to a new analysis from The Hill, he cannot ignore the very real "political injury" the war has caused him.
In a piece published Tuesday morning, The Hill broke down the current standing of the war in Iran, arguing that while the U.S. and Israel have dealt significant damage to the country's military capabilities, "the question of strategic victory is a very different one — especially since Iran has displayed an ability to block the vital Strait of Hormuz, sending oil and gas prices to levels far above their prewar range." Beyond those issues, Trump has also suffered severe "political ramifications" on the homefront as well.
"White House chief of staff Susie Wiles was reported to be meeting with Republican strategists on Monday to help plot out a course in advance of the midterms. But Democrats believe they have the momentum — and that Trump’s Iran war has added to it," the report explained. "For the moment, Trump continues to proclaim success — though often in a conspicuously defensive tone."
The report continued: "... A new poll from NBC News released Sunday found Trump’s approval rating at the lowest point of his second term. Just 37 percent of surveyed adults support his performance in office so far, while 63 percent disapprove. The poll found 67 percent of Americans disapprove of how Trump has handled the war in Iran, while just 33 percent approve."
The war's effect on gas prices, the most visible indicator of rising prices all across the U.S., is at the heart of the damage Trump has sustained from the war. GOP insiders, according to reports, have privately admitted that their chances of salvaging the midterms are dependent on the average cost of a gallon of gas dipping below $3 before November, something Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted this week was unlikely to happen for the rest of the year. Adding to the administration's messy messaging strategy, Trump later said that his own Cabinet official was "wrong" in making that claim.
"Politically, the war has steepened an already rough climb for Republicans in November’s midterm elections," The Hill added. "Democrats are now the heavy favorites to claim the majority in the House, and, even more surprisingly, gaining control of the Senate is now a realistic goal. The upper chamber had, until recently, been seen as beyond Democrats’ grasp, largely because they have to defend seats in states Trump carried in 2024, including Michigan and Georgia, while picking up seats elsewhere. GOP figures continue to evince some level of confidence that they will at least hold the Senate."
“The Republicans have no message,” Democratic strategist Mark Longabaugh told the outlet. “Their whole message is defending a war that nobody wants and nobody approves of... If you are a Republican House candidate, or even one of these Senate candidates, what are you going to say about gas prices? They are not going to have an answer.”
