Trump gamble backfires as Dems poised to seize control of 10 GOP-held statehouses

Following a string of special election victories, Democrats have a path to flip several Republican-held legislative chambers and break GOP supermajorities in states across the country this November.

High prices and overall voter dissatisfaction with Washington have put control of the U.S. House and Senate in play this year — a dynamic that has trickled down, with heightened Democratic enthusiasm in many state contests.

“I think for the most part the Republicans are kind of playing defense more than offense,” said Katy Owens Hubler, director of elections and redistricting at the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Midterm elections generally favor the party that doesn’t control the White House. Still, it’s unlikely Democrats can capture the majority in states: GOP lawmakers currently hold nearly 55% of the nation’s 7,386 state legislative seats.

That gives Republicans control in 28 state legislatures and Democrats control in 18, while three states have divided control of chambers, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. NCSL is eyeing 10 Republican-held chambers, four Democratic-held chambers and the tied state House in Minnesota for potential flips in control in November.

“My feeling generally is that it is going to be a good year for Democrats,” Owens Hubler said, “but it’s not going to be a blowout year.”

Wins in some states could deliver Democrats total control of state government — both legislative chambers and the governor, known as a trifecta — making it much easier to pass progressive legislation. In other states, weakening Republican majorities or breaking veto-proof supermajorities would make it easier for Democrats to object to GOP policies.

Since President Donald Trump’s second term began, Democrats have flipped a dozen seats in special elections in Arkansas, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Texas, according to tracking by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which works to elect Democrats at the state level. They also flipped another 18 seats in last year’s general elections in New Jersey and Virginia.

Republicans have not flipped a single Democratic legislative seat.

“2026 is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fundamentally transform state legislative power,” said Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

The committee is touting record numbers of Democratic candidates running for office in some states and has announced plans to spend a record $50 million on state legislative races this year, with aims of flipping more than 650 legislative seats. And just as in 2024, the state of the economy — and ever-rising prices — are proving a central campaign message.

In Michigan, defending their state Senate majority and winning control of the state House would give Democrats a trifecta. They would need to flip four Republican-held House seats to do so.

Michigan Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks said she’s confident her party will maintain or even grow its Senate majority. The House will be a “tougher lift,” she said, but the party’s chances look good now.

“I feel very confident that we will be working with a Democratic legislature in both chambers next term,” she said.

Following months of GOP obstruction in the House, Democratic control of both chambers would reverse the current gridlock in Lansing. Brinks, who is term-limited, said she expects a Democratic trifecta will focus on the issues that matter to Michiganders, including regulations on data centers, childcare accessibility and affordability.

“There are things that we know we could do that make people’s lives easier and more affordable,” she said. “So I think that in general you’ll see us try to tackle those things.”

Nationwide, Republicans have acknowledged growing voter frustrations over affordability while also arguing voters should support them for their work to redraw congressional districts.

Set off by a White House push to give Republicans more seats in the U.S. House, 10 states have completed middecade redistricting — a phenomenon unseen since the 1800s.

Earlier this month, the Republican State Leadership Committee, which works to elect GOP state legislators, highlighted the party’s redistricting successes and underscored that current races for statehouse control will determine which party draws future maps.

In a statement to Stateline, Committee President Edith Jorge-Tuñón said Democrats can brag all they want about fundraising success, “but no amount of cash changes the fact that their party is being pulled further left by the socialist wing calling the shots.”

“We know Democrats and their national allies will continue to pour millions into state legislative races because they understand what’s at stake: the legislators elected in 2026 will shape redistricting and the balance of power for years to come.”

‘Things are looking really good’

In Iowa, Democrats flipped two state Senate seats in special elections last year to break the GOP supermajority, leaving Republicans with a 33-17 majority in the upper chamber.

Democrats hope to deprive Republicans of winning back that supermajority and to break the supermajority in the state House in November. It’s especially high stakes this cycle as polling has shown a very competitive race for governor, with Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand ahead of Republican Zach Lahn in some tracking.

Iowa hasn’t had a Democratic governor since 2011.

“From my perspective right now, assuming we continue to do the work and we raise the money we need to, things are looking really good,” said Democratic state Sen. Janice Weiner, the minority leader.

Depriving Republicans of a veto-proof supermajority would give a potential Democratic governor much more power, Weiner said. And the more Democrats gain, the more they can challenge the policies of the GOP, which has enjoyed control of both chambers and the governor’s office for the past decade.

Senate Democrats have already used their newly won power by rejecting gubernatorial appointments, including a high-profile nomination for the leader of the state’s Health and Human Services Department.

Success in November could position Democrats to further contest the state Senate in 2028, when they could conceivably tie with a 25-25 split with Republicans, she said.

“It’s an accountability issue,” Weiner said. “You don’t have to be in the majority to start being a player.”

In a statement, Iowa Republican House Speaker Pat Grassley acknowledged the uphill battle that midterms can present for incumbents. But he said Republicans have faced similar pressures before, particularly in the 2020 election, and have only grown their House majority in Des Moines.

Republicans currently hold 67 of 100 Iowa House seats, all of which are up for election this year. Democrats only need to flip one seat to end the Republican House supermajority.

“We have a lot of territory to defend, including several districts that historically voted for Democrats. Our success in these areas isn’t a fluke,” Grassley’s statement said. “With our battle-tested incumbents and a dynamic slate of hardworking candidates, we are in a strong position in every corner of the state.”

What’s at stake

In this year’s legislative special elections, Democrats have overperformed general election outcomes by a median of 10.4 points compared with how their districts voted in 2024 elections, according to government relations and lobbying firm MultiState. If Democrats maintain that kind of performance through November, the firm said, it could result in one of the largest wave elections in recent history.

But special elections are not necessarily predictive of general elections, said Chris Cooper, a professor of political science and public affairs at Western Carolina University in Cullowhee, North Carolina.

North Carolina Democrats are aiming to prevent a House Republican supermajority and break the Senate GOP supermajority — which would require flipping just one seat.

“I think breaking the supermajority does seem very much in reach,” Cooper said. “Getting the majority in the Senate isn’t going to happen unless we have a political earthquake the likes of which we haven’t seen in many decades.”

Increasing their numbers in the legislature would greatly increase the power of Democratic Gov. Josh Stein, who has seen a dozen of his vetoes overridden by the GOP-controlled legislature. Among other issues, those overrides have allowed laws to be enacted punishing so-called sanctuary cities and eliminating diversity, equity and inclusion policies from public education.

“It’s extremely consequential,” Cooper said. “It doesn’t mean that Democrats are going to be able to do what they want, but it does mean they’re going to be able to stop the Republicans from doing what they want.”

For Democrats, statehouse races provide a critical opportunity to oppose policies enacted by the federal government’s Republican trifecta.

“I think part of it is that people are waking up to the power that states have always had,” said Andrew Grunwald, vice president of political strategy at The States Project, an organization working to help Democrats gain power in states.

State lawmakers who win election this year will have a huge impact on future congressional races as states continue to redraw U.S. House maps. But Grunwald said states also have the ability to immediately legislate on affordability issues that are top of mind for voters.

“When you look at who is passing laws that impact your everyday life, it’s your state lawmakers,” he said.

That’s particularly true in states with split partisan governance, including Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

He also pointed to Pennsylvania, where Democrats control the state House but Republicans control the Senate. That divide has left hundreds of Democratic bills to die in the upper chamber. Winning a Senate majority there would require flipping three seats but could have a major impact on what legislation ultimately becomes signed by Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro.

While the national environment looks favorable now, Grunwald acknowledged things can change quickly.

“We need to be doing the work now,” he said. “…If we’re not doing the work, voters will recognize that and if we’re meeting voters where they are and responding to their concerns they will recognize that as well.”

Stateline reporter Kevin Hardy can be reached at khardy@stateline.org.