Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes polls and election updates, has previously predicted that Republicans are in trouble in the 2026 midterms, that one party or the other is likely to sweep and that traditionally red states such as Iowa are currently in play. Now a Cook Political Report expert is telling Republicans that President Donald Trump’s controversies are putting two more solidly Republican districts into election jeopardy.
“We're shifting three races from solid Republican to likely Republican,” Cook Political Report analyst Erin Covey told CNN anchor Erin Burnett on Thursday. “That means these are races that are no longer totally safe for the Republican incumbents. It's Ohio's 15th district, held by Republican Congressman Mike Carey. This is in Columbus, stretches all the way out to southwest Ohio. Ohio's 10th District, held by Congressman Mike Turner, the former Intelligence Committee chairman — this is a seat that's anchored in Dayton, Ohio.”
Covey added, “And then we're moving Colorado's 3rd district, a seat held by Congressman Jeff Hurd. It takes in all of the western side of the state. That one is also shifting to likely. So this just means that these are seats where Republicans are still favored, but they do have the potential to become more competitive under this current political environment.”
Burnett then asked Covey why the races are shifting in this way at this specific moment in American political history.
“Here at the Cook Political Report, what we do is throughout the cycle, we are gathering information on all of the candidates, all the money that they're raising, and polling, much of which still has yet to be conducted across all of these House districts,” Covey told Burnett. “So the more polling that we get, the more information we have about which parties are spending where, then we're able to make decisions on which of the races are going to be competitive in November.”
She continued, “Overall, of course, the national environment looks good for Democrats due to President Trump's severely underwater approval rating in many of these seats. And these are all seats that really haven't been seriously contested by Democrats in recent years, with the exception of Colorado's 3rd. And so it's notable that they're kind of shifting onto the board at this point.”
Burnett then specifically asked about Rep. Max Miller (R-OH), whose seat was originally listed as likely Republican but was moved to toss-up. Because Miller has been accused of physically abusing multiple women and his two-year-old child, Burnett wanted to know if Covey thought those allegations — which explain his seat being suddenly wide open — are impacting other House races.
“It's a good question,” Covey told Burnett. “Look, I mean, I think it's notable that Republican Senator John Husted, who is locked in a very competitive race with former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, called for him to resign from Congress. I think that for all the Republicans who are running in Ohio, this issue is going to be more of an issue for them in the media cycle more so than in other congressional districts across the country.”
She added, “I think it remains to be seen how much of an effect it has on all the other races. Certainly for Max Miller's race, he's in a much more vulnerable position now. At the presidential level, Max Miller's district, Mike Carey's district, Mike Turner's district — these are all seats that Trump won by about 10 points in 2024. So under a more neutral political environment, they really shouldn't be competitive.’
Burnett observed, “But of course, Miller's seat is now a toss-up due to the allegations against him. And Turner's and Carey's seats, while they're still certainly favored, are no longer safe for them.”
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