navi pillay

Trump warned he could 'suddenly risk arrest' over latest attack on court

President Donald Trump has been warned that he could end up in handcuffs in International Criminal Court member countries over his administration's sanctions, according to a former Human Rights Watch chief.

Kenneth Roth, the former executive director of the organization and a senior fellow at Yale, made the argument in a column for The Guardian that Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio could be subject to prosecution under a provision of the court's founding treaty which prohibits retaliation against its personnel.

The warning came after Trump's latest attack against the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which has been looking into allegations of war crimes committed by Israeli officials and has previously looked into allegations of abuse by US personnel in Afghanistan.

Roth stated that Article 70 of the Rome Statute criminalizes obstructing justice by intimidation or retaliation against judicial officers and that such an offense is punishable by up to 5 years' imprisonment.

He argued the sanctions on the judges, the prosecutors and now the institution itself would fall within that provision.

"They would suddenly risk arrest if they traveled to any ICC member state," Roth wrote, describing what could happen if the court brought charges against Trump or Rubio.

He also added: "Trump's pardon power doesn't extend to the ICC." He used Russian President Vladimir Putin as an example, pointing to his lack of attendance at BRICS summits in South Africa and Brazil due to fear of being arrested.

He acknowledged charging President Trump would be a "big deal" and would require a brave chief prosecutor, which they currently do not have.

Roth said that the administration has already sanctioned 13 ICC judges and prosecutors. The latest actions are set to have the effect of cutting off the court from financial transactions within six months, which would in effect mean that it would be restricted in its access to banking, communications and technology services.

Roth connected the most recent escalation to the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to South African human rights lawyer Navi Pillay, who was previously an ICC judge and chair of the UN inquiry into Israel's actions in Gaza.

The Trump admin is arguing that the ICC is a threat to US sovereignty because it's asserting jurisdiction over states that have not joined the court.

Roth responded that the Tribunal can investigate alleged crimes which have been committed on the territory of member states even if the accused is from a non-member state. He gave the examples of Palestine and Afghanistan.

Roth also called on the EU to bring into force the legislation which would enable it to circumvent certain foreign sanctions, thus allowing EU companies to continue to support the court.

He accused Trump of having “lawless views on American and Israeli crimes” but concluded that “no one else should.”

Trump has 'nothing left to lose' — and Putin has everything to win: Krugman

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman argued on Tuesday that Donald Trump’s increasingly open support for Russian President Vladimir Putin is really more about refusing to hide his longstanding support for the foreign leader.

In the column, Krugman warned that Trump’s weakening political position is making him more willing to indulge his authoritarian instincts, like Putin.

David Sanger's recent reporting for the New York Times walked through the president's efforts to rehabilitate Russia after years of war against Ukraine.

“Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine,” Trump claimed while speaking to reporters before leaving for a campaign rally.

“We’ve given a lot to Ukraine. They’ve given nothing to us. Remember that," Trump complained.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky replied to Trump's comment with a photo of a baby girl who was dead in a stroller after another Russian bombing of civilians in a park near a cafe.

Krugman agreed with Sanger's assessment that Trump's support for a dictator like Putin is unusual from an American president.

"What makes Trump’s support for Putin even more remarkable is that Russia has, by many accounts, been actively aiding Iran against America in the war Trump started. Who says so? Well, among others, Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. And the aid goes beyond intelligence sharing that has helped Iran target U.S. forces. Russia has also reportedly been sending Iran explosives and weapons components," said Krugman.

He wondered what Republicans would be saying if a Democratic president made the same move: "Even as that dictator was helping another nation kill American troops? They would be crying 'treason.' But this is all apparently 'fine' with Trump."

The reality is that Trump hasn't made a "pivot," the way the right appears to be claiming, said Krugman. When Trump claims "we" gave Ukraine "a lot," Krugman wondered what he means by "we," since Trump "cut off all economic and military aid to Ukraine as soon as he took office."

Krugman described it as a kind of "political bankruptcy" and the freedom to be the worst version of himself, which supports "corrupt, murderous dictators."

He also thinks that Trump resents Zelensky’s demonstrated courage.

The economist predicts much more is coming, largely because Trump has nothing left to lose if he flops in the midterms. Electoral pressures will no longer restrain the president and what he wants to get out of Putin.

"Trump can’t and won’t make America great again. But he can betray everything America stands for, and he’s doing it as we speak," Krugman closed.

Political guru calls Trump 'extraordinary' traitor amid newest 'betrayal'

Calling his latest pro-Russia moves a major "betrayal" of the country, a prominent political guru told The Daily Beast that President Donald Trump has become a historic and "extraordinary" traitor, on the level of the infamous Benedict Arnold.

This week, David Rothkopf, a prolific political commentator and former Clinton administration official, appeared on The Daily Beast Podcast to discuss the continuing fallout from Trump's efforts to appease and make deals with Vladimir Putin. This has included a controversial deal to purchase diesel fuel from Russia amid soaring prices in the U.S., and an executive order that exempted the country from new economic sanctions, a move that left many Republicans in Congress aghast.

Amid all of that, Trump has made a greater push against Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, claiming that their strikes on Russian oil refineries are to blame for rising fuel costs and claiming that Zelensky "doesn’t want to end this war, and probably never did." Ukraine has also claimed that these efforts from Trump are part of a push to get it to surrender to Russia as the war between the two nations nears the five-year mark.

Rothkopf argued that this push from Trump comes at a time when Russia is in a "pinch," and when the midterms have the president in his own sort of pinch, setting the stage for all-time worst betrayal of the U.S. and its values.

“The timing of this is associated [with] Russia being in a pinch, and because Trump is in an electoral pinch,” Rothkopf explained. “And those things coincided and have produced what is really one of the most extraordinary acts of betrayal of the United States by any public official ever, and in that I include Benedict Arnold.”

Arnold was a noted Revolutionary War general who infamously defected to the British and began commanding their forces, making him synonymous with betrayal in American culture. Rothkopf suggested that, in continuing to twist American policy to benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump has put himself on the same level as Arnold, and exposed how thoroughly he is under the thrall of the Kremlin.

“I think that he has — or, at least until recently, he has — tried to present the idea that he was not completely under their thumb," Rothkop said. "And I would say, as of the past week, that’s over. The whole idea that we won the Cold War? Over. Donald Trump is subordinate to taking orders from Vladimir Putin."

He added: “You know those stories that came out after World War II, that there was some Japanese guy and he was living on an island for 20 years and he thought the war was still going on and he was still fighting it? Well, here is this KGB guy, Vladimir Putin, who... still believes in the old Soviet Union, feels the end of the Soviet Union was the worst thing that ever happened in history. He said that. And he wants to restore Russia to Soviet glory and Soviet dominance and achieve Soviet goals. That is what they’re doing. Donald Trump is weakening the U.S. military; he’s weakening our institutions; he’s weakening our democracy; he’s undermining our standing in the world; he’s weakening our alliances; he’s weakening our economy. Now, in addition to doing all of these things, which are kind of on Vladimir Putin’s to-do list for Don, he’s now doing this thing of overtly helping Putin and overtly blaming Ukraine for the illegal Russian aggression and war crimes that have taken place against Ukraine.”

Lindsey Graham was saved from a bribery investigation by Trump's FBI

On March 3, 2020, Sen. Lindsey Graham walked into a private dining room at Charlie Palmer Steak in Washington, D.C. Graham’s time was expensive. He was meeting with two executives and a lobbyist from a Hawaiian naval defense contractor called Navatek. And he had required them to commit to $40,000 in campaign contributions for a 45-minute meeting.

Navatek’s CEO, Martin Kao, was confident that was all the time he needed.

“Shoot all he has to really do is stop by and say ‘yes,’” Kao wrote to a Navatek lobbyist and a fellow executive the day before, in an email seen by ProPublica. “That should only take a minute and he’s on his way. We don’t need to pretend we give a shit about each other.”

At the dinner, Graham ate little and talked a lot. But Kao got the “yes” he was hoping for: Graham agreed to steer a $10 million government contract Navatek’s way in his native South Carolina, Kao later recounted to the FBI. In exchange, he said, Graham asked Kao to pledge a total of $100,000 to his reelection campaign.

In early 2025, the FBI opened a sweeping investigation into bribery on Capitol Hill with Graham’s steakhouse dinner at the center. Kao confessed to federal agents that his business model consisted of bribing public officials in exchange for government contracts, and that the research Navatek was providing to the government was often worthless.

The scheme involved some of the most powerful figures in Congress, he said — in both parties. In South Carolina, Kao told agents, Navatek made a campaign cash-for-contracts deal not only with Graham, but also with the state’s top Democrat, Rep. James Clyburn, and another influential Republican, Rep. Joe Wilson.

Kao told agents that Graham in particular left little room for ambiguity: “This is how much I want, and how much I am going to give you,” Kao remembered Graham saying, according to notes one agent took during their debrief in late 2024.

Kao’s admissions would constitute a vast criminal bribery scheme if they could be proved in court — a challenge, given recent Supreme Court rulings that have made it more difficult to win corruption cases. Kao himself posed another hurdle. He was facing prison for fraud and campaign finance violations and was speaking to the FBI in the hopes of reducing his sentence.

But the FBI agents who took Kao’s confession — two experienced anti-corruption investigators — could see that much of it lined up with a trove of records they had seized from Navatek. They forged ahead. The FBI took the formal step of naming two former Navatek executives who had worked with Kao as subjects of a bribery investigation. The agency did not designate Graham, Clyburn and Wilson that way, but the agents were actively investigating their interactions with Kao. The agents indicated to their superiors that the lawmakers could become subjects in the future, according to records viewed by ProPublica.

The details of this investigation have not previously been reported.

President Donald Trump returned to the White House and almost immediately gutted the specialized FBI and Department of Justice teams dedicated to taking on public corruption — an act of revenge for having previously investigated him. The two experienced agents on the case were swept up in the purge, and the career prosecutor assisting them quit after Trump appointees forbid the DOJ’s anti-corruption section from filing any new cases. Today, there is no one left to look into Kao’s explosive allegations, as the Trump administration has abandoned any pretense of prosecuting public corruption. The case is dead.

ProPublica has unearthed the investigation by reviewing thousands of pages of legal documents, internal company emails, evidence the FBI used to vet Kao’s claims and dozens of interviews with people who saw how Navatek operated, including an eyewitness to Graham and Kao’s secret steakhouse dinner.

This story is part of a series based on our reporting. Last month, ProPublica reported that the FBI had probed the conduct of Maine Sen. Susan Collins, who steered millions in government funding toward Navatek while Kao gave her illegal campaign donations. Collins denied wrongdoing and dismissed Kao as a “convicted liar.”

Kao is indeed the only person involved to serve prison time. He pleaded guilty to making illegal campaign donations and a loan fraud scheme in 2022. In 2025, he was sentenced to 87 months in prison.

Graham died at 71 earlier this year. His sister, Darline Graham, who was appointed to fill his seat, retained most of his senior staff, including those who dealt with Navatek. She even took up some of his committee assignments, including appropriations. Darline Graham is running for a full term in office this November.

Clyburn, 86, is one of the most powerful Democrats in Washington. He is widely credited with tipping the scales for Joe Biden during the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. Wilson remains influential on national defense spending from his senior perch on the Armed Services Committee.

“Whatever a donor may think or say, a donation would never cause Congressman Clyburn to increase his support for the donor’s request,” Jami LaRue, Clyburn’s communications director, wrote in response to detailed questions. “The Congressman has always striven to assist the University of South Carolina and all of the colleges and universities in his district when called upon to further their important missions. The crimes and lies of an imprisoned fraudster will not cause the Congressman to waver in his support for these fine institutions.”

David Snider, Wilson’s communications director, did not address a detailed list of questions sent by ProPublica. “Congressman Wilson does and has always abided by campaign donation regulations set forth by the Federal Election Commission,” Snider said in an email.

In an emailed statement, Taylor Reidy, who was Lindsey Graham’s communications director and now holds the same post for his sister, wrote that “any allegations of quid-pro-quo behavior or wrongdoing by the late Senator Lindsey Graham or his staff are simply false.” She said the accusations were the “ravings of a convicted felon” and that her office was never contacted by the FBI about the matter. After Kao’s arrest, they disgorged his donations, she added.

The two executives who were subjects of the FBI investigation, Duke Hartman and Joshua Knight, were never charged. Hartman, the other executive at the dinner meeting with Graham, is now the CEO of a new naval research company called Integer Technologies that he co-founded with Knight after Kao’s arrest. Integer was recently recognized as one of the fastest-growing government contractors in the country. It also became the ultimate beneficiary of the Graham dinner meeting, picking up the contract Graham allegedly agreed to facilitate that night.

Hartman and Knight did not respond to detailed requests for comment.

“[It’s] corruption at its best,” Kao wrote to ProPublica from federal detention in South Dakota, before cutting off contact. “But I am the only one rotting in prison.”

Small Company, Big Ambitions

Kao’s dinner with Graham was part of his grandiose plan to make Navatek a major defense contractor.

He had become the CEO at an uncertain moment in the company’s history. Founded in Hawaii in the 1970s, the company originally thrived on a close relationship with the state’s powerful senior senator, Daniel Inouye. When Kao assumed ownership in 2019, it had been several years since Inouye had died, and Navatek was in need of a new patron in Washington.

At times, Kao hardly seemed the person to pull this off. He had started out as the company’s CFO and was openly uninterested in its technology. He told bombastic lies about his personal life. Former employees said he regaled them with tales of selling newspapers for members of the Bloods and Crips street gangs as a youth. In a deposition, Kao later admitted that wasn’t true.

But what he lacked in engineering chops he made up with ambition. Once, Kao held a company town hall using a map of the U.S. dotted with future Navatek offices as his backdrop, a former employee recalled. “He would talk about how we’re a $10 million company, and in the next three years, we’re going to be a billion-dollar company,” said a former engineer. “He was an absolute megalomaniac.”

Kao hatched a plan to expand Navatek’s presence across the country, making new friends in Congress along the way. He courted politicians using something he called “the method,” as ProPublica detailed in September.

Navatek would open an office in the state or district of a powerful member of Congress and partner with a local university to concoct a proposal for federally funded research. Then, aided by a well-connected lobbyist and the sheen of credibility from its association with the university, Navatek would approach the member for federal research funding.

Kao told the FBI he would strike deals in small, face-to-face meetings with the members or their trusted staff. Navatek — through executives, family members and lobbyists — would make generous campaign donations. In exchange, the member would add detailed language to the defense budget to fund the company’s work.

That legislative language would not name the company. But it would describe specific work that Navatek was already planning to do behind the scenes, making it the only logical choice for the eventual government contract. The lawmakers’ staff would also backchannel with the Navy after the bill was passed to make sure contracting offices knew to direct the money to Navatek, emails seen by ProPublica show — even though the contracts were in theory competitive.

Kao “wanted to build a company as big as he could as fast as he could,” a former executive later testified in court. For a while, he succeeded. Under Kao, Navatek went from having to “rebuild,” as the executive put it, to winning $40.7 million in new government contracts in 2020.

Hartman, the other Navatek executive who went to dinner with Graham, was in charge of maintaining friendly ties in Congress while tracking the millions of dollars the company had requested in research funds. He kept careful tabs on the company’s progress using dozens of color-coded spreadsheets. “If anyone knows the impropriety of the business model, it’s him,” Kao told the FBI, referring to Hartman.

Later, these spreadsheets provided the FBI a detailed picture of which congressional offices worked closest with Navatek. In the tables devoted to South Carolina, Navatek denoted Graham as a “key supporter.”

The company primarily targeted lawmakers from smaller states who sat on appropriations committees, like Collins, Kao explained to the FBI, because they wielded huge power over the budget while having fewer “constituents to ‘feed.’”

The senior senator from South Carolina was another prime target. “You can get access to Lindsey Graham,” Eric Schiff, a former Navatek executive, said in an interview.

Kao, Hartman and other Navatek executives approached the offices of Graham, Clyburn and Wilson — all powerful members of the South Carolina delegation — in the beginning of 2019. The company had recruited the University of South Carolina for a joint research project, and together they asked the lawmakers to find $9.5 million to fund the work. If it succeeded, Navatek planned to ask Congress to re-up the funding for two more years as well as green-light two more projects, internal company records show, for a total of up to $90 million in South Carolina alone.

Yet Navatek had “zero people” capable of doing the research it was pitching, said a former executive with direct knowledge of the work.

Its $9.5 million “power and energy” proposal promised cutting-edge research on how to distribute the limited power on board a ship between multiple energy-intense systems, like radars, lasers and rail guns. Graham’s office later boasted that the work would lead to new technology that would “ensure that our fleet is ready for the fights of the future.”

In reality, Navatek’s initial research “looked like a college senior’s graduation project,” the executive said. “Something you go get from RadioShack.” Graham’s office referred questions about the quality of the work to the Navy and the university. The Office of Naval Research, which awarded the contract, did not respond to questions.

But for Congress, that lack of expertise wasn’t a problem. Throughout 2019, the FBI noted, as the ensuing year’s budget came together, both Graham’s and Clyburn’s offices took steps to make sure it included Navatek’s funding.

In May 2019, Willie Lyles III, Clyburn’s legislative director, alerted Navatek that the House Appropriations Committee would endorse new funding for a “modular and scalable integrated power and thermal system capable of powering a directed energy weapon system of 100 or more kilowatts,” according to an email flagged by the FBI. Three days later, that exact language appeared in the House Appropriations Committee report. Lyles did not reply to a request for comment.

In September, the Senate Appropriations Committee — Graham’s committee — released a budget report that set aside $9.5 million in funding for “Talent and Technology for Navy Power and Energy Systems.” Agents noted that Navatek may have ghostwritten the technical description that accompanied this line item because “an almost identical paragraph” appeared in Hartman’s internal spreadsheets two months before the Senate report became public.

After the Senate advanced its version of the budget in the fall, Navatek dropped $4,799 to send bourbon to a handful of lawmakers, including Graham and Collins, the FBI found in company records — a likely violation of Senate gift rules. Both Collins’ and Graham’s offices denied receiving bourbon. Navatek later sent Clyburn a fruit basket from Edible Arrangements for $102.60.

Congress passed the final spending bill containing $9.5 million for Navatek’s pet project on Dec. 19, 2019.

At that point, Kao and other Navatek executives had not made any donations to Clyburn, Wilson or even Graham.

That would change within days of Congress passing the budget, when an executive pledged $750 to Wilson’s campaign at a fundraiser held at Bullfeathers, a Capitol Hill watering hole for lobbyists and Hill staffers, emails show. In the following weeks, Kao and his lobbyist gave Wilson’s campaign $3,500.

And bigger checks were imminent. Kao kicked off 2020 by making plans to spend $300,000 at a slew of political fundraisers, according to text messages filed in court and a recent deposition. Navatek’s lobbyists at that time were seeking private meetings with Graham, Wilson and Clyburn, where Kao planned to ask for significantly more federal funding. Kao eventually met with all three, and each asked for $100,000, he told the FBI.

During that same period, Kao and Hartman met a top fundraiser for Collins at a Corner Bakery in Washington, D.C. As ProPublica reported, that meeting led Kao to donate $150,000 to the pro-Collins super PAC. Kao told the FBI that the money was a bribe in exchange for the senator’s support for more Navatek funding. The head of the super PAC and Collins have denied Kao’s version of events.

Kao told the FBI it was not unusual for donations to come after the favor: “We became clever in our own right and figured out how to dangle the carrot,” he wrote in a memo seen by ProPublica, “until we saw some assurance that the Ask was in the budget.”

To secure a meeting with Graham, Kao hired Michael Tongour, a veteran South Carolina lobbyist who was old law school friends with the senator and family friends with Clyburn and Wilson. Graham was up for reelection against a well-funded challenger, Jaime Harrison, and had a crowded fundraising schedule, said Tongour, but they eventually found a time.

“The Graham fundraiser says that it [sic] you want to reserve a date for Senator Graham to attend a private dinner, the campaign wants to get $40,000 in contributions,” Tongour wrote to Kao, Hartman and lobbyist Andy Winer, in an undated email seen by ProPublica. Winer, whom Kao described as Navatek’s chief lobbyist, chimed in to say that Graham could stay only 45 minutes, and Kao replied that all they needed to hear was “yes.”

“These discussions are very frank and oddly not at all awkward,” Kao told the FBI. “I suppose once we got that far, everyone knows the deal.”

A Dinner With Graham

Graham showed up late to his March 3, 2020, dinner with Kao, Hartman and Tongour. A fundraiser working for Graham appeared first and accepted an envelope from Kao containing checks made out to Graham’s campaign, Kao said. Kao did not know the fundraiser’s name; in an FBI debrief, he simply referred to the person as the “money man.” After that person departed, Graham entered.

Graham, Kao recalled to the FBI, was “very abrupt” and “straight to the point”: He asked how much Navatek wanted, to which they said $10 million a year for three years. Graham asked Kao to pledge $100,000 in donations in exchange for his support, Kao told the FBI.

Navatek was juggling multiple proposals in South Carolina worth around $10 million, and it’s not clear which one Kao was describing.

Congress had just approved the $9.5 million for the power and energy project, but Navatek still needed the Navy to award the money in the form of a contract. The company was also about to ask Congress to fund the same project for a second year at $10.5 million. On top of that, Navatek was planning to pitch a new research proposal, at $10 million, to study the transport of supplies inland from ships using autonomous vehicles. It was another area where Navatek had “zero past performance,” the former executive said.

The same week of the steakhouse dinner, Graham’s office was working behind the scenes with Navatek and the University of South Carolina to make sure the Navy sent the first $9.5 million to the right company.

A day before the dinner, an official with the Office of Naval Research emailed Graham’s office to ask about the money, which “the Senator may have an interest in.” Craig Abele, Graham’s national security adviser, called her a few days later to confirm that Graham’s office had intended the money to be awarded to the Navatek partnership, emails show. “Spoke to ONR this morning,” Abele wrote March 6. “Should be set.”

The company received the contract, which it split with the university, in July 2020.

Abele became Graham’s deputy chief of staff and still holds the position for Darline. He did not reply to an email requesting comment. A Graham spokesperson confirmed to ProPublica that their office had indeed added the $9.5 million to the budget at the request of the university and Navatek. The spokesperson said the research was supported by the Navy and rejected the notion that Graham was motivated by campaign cash.

Graham’s spokesperson said requiring a fundraising minimum for a dinner was normal practice.

“[It’s] corruption at its best. But I am the only one rotting in prison.”
Former Navatek CEO Martin Kao

The checks Kao handed over at the dinner added up to about half of the $40,000 he had agreed to raise for the dinner, according to Tongour. The rest came in May, campaign records show.

“My understanding at the time was that the contributions associated with the event were lawful political contributions,” Winer said. “I never advised Kao to make a political contribution in exchange for official action. I never participated in, witnessed or had knowledge of any illegal political contribution.”

After Kao’s 2020 indictment, the University of South Carolina broke off the partnership. “University officials were not aware of any political contributions from Navatek,” Jeff Stensland, a university spokesperson, wrote in an email. “Our sole objective in partnering with them was to expand our research enterprise.”

One week after the dinner, on March 10, a University of South Carolina lobbyist sent written requests to Graham’s office for $20.5 million in appropriations: $10.5 million to continue Navatek’s power and energy research and $10 million for its new autonomous vehicle research.

Tongour confirmed many elements of Kao’s story. In a recent interview with ProPublica and subsequent emails, he remembered Kao giving the envelope full of checks to Graham’s fundraiser and even agreed that Graham kept the meeting short. “I don’t recall that he stayed more than 30 minutes,” Tongour said in an email. “Certainly not for appetizers, entrée, and dessert.”

But he denied Kao’s most significant claim: that Graham and Navatek struck an explicit, potentially illegal deal for contracts.

“I would remember that forever,” Tongour said. Graham supported Navatek’s requests, he said, because they were good for the state. “If I had seen that kind of quid pro quo, I would have quit earlier.” Tongour fired Navatek as a client later that year, immediately after Kao’s arrest.

Navatek considered Graham its chief patron in South Carolina, internal records show, just as it viewed Collins in Maine. But the company also wanted support in the House.

For that, Navatek turned to Clyburn, a member of Democratic party leadership and one of the most powerful figures in Congress. Agents found Navatek emails setting a meeting with Clyburn for early March. The goal, Kao said, was to make sure that the House draft of the budget “mirrored” whatever Graham inserted in the Senate version.

Over a meal, Clyburn asked Kao how much he was donating to Graham and then asked for the same amount, $100,000, Kao told the FBI.

The FBI tallied $20,000 in contributions that Kao and his family members made to Clyburn a few days after their scheduled meeting. A month later, Hartman arranged for a $10,000 gift to Clyburn’s alma mater, South Carolina State University, according to an email seen by ProPublica. Hartman noted it was “Congressman Clyburn’s favorite school.”

The spokesperson for Clyburn confirmed the dinner occurred but did not respond to questions about what was discussed.

Kao and Hartman struck a similar bargain with Wilson, Kao told the FBI, at a private lunch he secured by donating to his campaign. The FBI pulled records of $3,500 in donations Kao and Tongour made in late 2019 and early 2020.

Wilson has an influential role on the House Armed Services Committee, which authorizes defense spending. Wilson was “very clear and knew what the ask was,” Kao told the FBI. He wanted however much Clyburn was getting in campaign contributions in exchange for his support, Kao said.

Tongour denied this. “There was no ‘pay to play’ with Joe Wilson or his staff either,” he wrote in an email, adding that he donated because Wilson “is a friend and I want to see him re-elected.”

Kao claimed to the FBI that he paid for meals with all three politicians, but campaign finance records appear to show the lawmakers’ campaigns picked up the check.

By August 2020, Hartman had gotten word that Graham’s and Wilson’s committees would each support part of the company’s requests, internal company records show. Clyburn was not on key committees while he was a party leader. In one of his myriad spreadsheets, Hartman projected that the final budget could include up to $15.5 million of the $20.5 million the company had lobbied for.

Kao told agents he was gearing up to make more significant donations to Graham, Clyburn and Wilson by the end of the year. Instead, on Sept. 30, 2020, he was arrested.

Kao reflected on his time at Navatek in a deposition taken last month inside a federal prison. The company’s founder has sued Kao, saying his stewardship defrauded Navatek of millions.

“It’s nothing more than government contracting done through placating senior appropriation members for contracts,” Kao said. “The whole thing is a grand lie.”

An Arrest, a Lifeboat

Kao’s arrest plunged Navatek into disarray. Federal prosecutors charged him with defrauding a federal loan program; not long after, he was also charged with making illegal donations to the Collins campaign and super PAC. Lobbyists, universities and congressional offices abruptly cut off contact. “Don’t call us,” one congressional office told an executive, he later testified.

The Collins campaign said it disgorged Kao’s contribution. Yet the senator, facing a tight reelection bid, has had to field questions following the ProPublica report about her support for Navatek and why the super PAC supporting her accepted the $150,000 donation from the shell company in the first place.

As Navatek sank, Hartman began building himself a lifeboat. In 2021, he and Knight started a new military research company headquartered in South Carolina called Integer Technologies. Integer’s first project was one that Navatek had brokered with Graham.

Hartman didn’t face any criminal charges at the time and left Navatek largely unscathed. He would later settle a civil lawsuit brought by his former employer, which contended he played a role in Kao’s campaign finance and loan fraud schemes, for $425,000. He admitted no wrongdoing.

In September 2024, FBI agents flew to Hawaii for what would be their final interview with Kao. They pressed him for details about what happened in South Carolina, quizzing him on his dinner with Graham and a second in-person meeting he said he had with Clyburn. Agents wanted Kao to help them find more records that would back up his account and asked him to point them toward lobbyists in D.C. who he said facilitated the pay-for-play scheme.

As the year came to a close, FBI agent Michelle Ball felt she had enough material to move forward. The FBI had “uncovered a lengthy history” of a government contractor making donations “in exchange for government contracts,” she wrote in a Dec. 9, 2024, memo viewed by ProPublica.

In federal corruption probes, agents often begin by focusing on lower-level targets with a goal of working their way up to more prominent figures. Ball named Hartman; his business partner, Knight; and their company, Integer, as the formal subjects of the probe, as they prepared to potentially issue subpoenas and gather more evidence. They had Graham, Clyburn and Wilson in their sights. Ball devoted entire sections of the memo to detailing the lawmakers’ conduct. And she flagged the case as a sensitive matter that might implicate politicians in the future.

In the summer of 2024, Kate Fifield, a prosecutor in the Justice Department’s anti-corruption section, had been assigned to join the case. Fifield was wrapping up a high-profile prosecution of a retired Navy admiral who traded a government contract for a future job. Turning her attention to Kao, she and the FBI agents weighed their options. They considered getting high-level approval to deploy undercover agents. Proving an exchange of cash for favors often requires the kind of inconvertible evidence that undercover recordings can provide.

But before the investigation took flight, the new Trump administration began to demolish the Justice Department. The president’s handpicked leaders ordered prosecutors to drop a corruption case against New York Mayor Eric Adams, triggering a wave of resignations in the Public Integrity Section where Fifield worked, and revoked the section’s authority to bring new cases.

Then Trump’s FBI director, Kash Patel, began to purge the anti-corruption unit in the Washington D.C., field office, where many agents had investigated Trump.

Ball was fired in October 2025. Kevin Gounaud, another agent who had been working with her on the investigation, was pushed out in early 2026. Through their lawyer, the agents declined to comment.

The corruption investigation, just launched, suddenly went dark.

The White House referred ProPublica’s questions to the FBI and DOJ.

The Department of Justice didn’t respond to detailed questions about the investigation.

“Under President Trump, the Justice Department is rooting out the weaponization, corruption, and institutional rot that ran rampant under Joe Biden’s two-tiered system of justice,” DOJ spokesperson Audrey Cook said.

Kao’s claims are “half baked” and “misleading,” FBI spokesperson Ben Williamson said. “Additionally, as we have said repeatedly, personnel are only removed at this FBI if they have been found to have acted unethically, undermined the mission, or engaged in weaponization of law enforcement.”

Meanwhile, Integer has rapidly expanded. Last year, it reported $81 million in contracts and announced that number would climb to $375 million by 2030. The company inked partnership deals with universities in New Hampshire, Louisiana and Mississippi. The University of South Carolina called its partnership with the firm a “model for public-private success.”

The company continues to forge ties with powerful politicians. In late 2024, Hartman posted a photo of himself with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson on his LinkedIn. “It was great to visit with the Speaker of the House today,” he wrote. “It’s good to know there are people in positions of power who seem to really care for the people they serve.” Johnson’s office did not reply to an email requesting comment.

The occasion was a new research partnership in Louisiana. Hartman thanked his lobbyist for making it happen.

Top Trump ally reveals why Republicans could be 'dead as a party'

A Trump ally and prominent Republican senator has warned that the GOP could be "dead" if they lose a key voting bloc.

Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno issued the warning in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday, arguing that the GOP can’t afford to lose working-class voters.

"It's the whole deal. If we don't hang on to those working-class voters, we're dead as a party. That's why I say with no hyperbole, if President Trump hadn’t won in 2016, the Republican Party would be dead. Because the Republican Party had abandoned working-class Americans.”

The senator, a close Trump ally, believes the president won because the Democrats abandoned the working-class voters, describing it as a void Trump managed to fill.

The report states that Trump scored a high percentage of the working-class white American vote in both 2016 and 2024. But Moreno's comments also exposed a growing problem for the GOP, which is the rising living costs and the war with Iran, which is leaving many voters to choose their wallets over loyalty to President Trump.

While Moreno didn’t name Trump directly, he said that the working-class voters "hate" the war.

Trump, along with Israel, started the war with Iran on February 28, 2026, and claimed it would be over quickly. The conflict has directly led to higher gas prices, which Moreno also acknowledged his voters “hate.”

He also said that he is unsure if Trump’s claims that Iran would have used a nuclear weapon if he didn’t attack the Middle Eastern nation would “penetrated enough.”

Moreno nevertheless defended the administration's military campaign, and said Republicans needed to do a better job explaining that case to voters.

His warning arrives with less than two weeks before the midterm elections, where Republicans are looking increasingly unlikely to maintain their majority in Congress.

A Fox News survey released October 14 found that 60 percent of voters identified the cost of living as their biggest economic concern and Trump's job approval stood at just 36 percent, which is the lowest for their polling history.

GOP candidates selling a bright economic future to voters have to contend with a president who repeatedly promised to restore prosperity and lower costs during his 2024 campaign and has so far done the opposite.

Despite Trump’s historic success with working-class voters, a Fox poll in May found that White voters without college degrees disapproved of his handling of the economy at 67 percent, a dramatic turn from one of his most loyal voting blocs.

For the Republicans, it is a difficult balancing act to defend Trump's economic and foreign policy decisions while at the same time convincing voters who are financially strained that the administration understands their immediate concerns.

He made it clear that the party's future, not just its November results, will depend on whether those working-class voters stay loyal.

Psychologist warns Trump’s confusion and seizures aren’t getting better

President Donald Trump continues to show "highly concerning" signs of confusion and "seizure-like episodes" during public events, according to a psychologist who has been tracking his apparent symptoms, and things are not getting better.

Dr. John Paul Garrison is a clinical and forensic psychologist specializing in body language cues, who also produces numerous YouTube videos in which he uses his professional insights to examine the behavior of public figures. Many of his recent videos have concerned Trump, with Garrison suggesting that the president is suffering from unavoidable physical and cognitive decline, based on several recurring symptoms.

In his latest video, Garrison examined some of Trump's recent appearances, pointing out "more highly concerning behaviors" exhibited during them that tie into his "apparent neurological decline." He began with Trump's White House event related to an executive order on women's health, in which he appeared to suffer another of his seizure-like episodes, something that Garrison has noticed in an increasing number of his public addresses.

"I've shown something very similar a couple of times before where we saw activity go from his right arm to his eyes to his mouth to his left arm," Garrison explained. "Now, I've shown a wide variety of... neurological glitches, but this is the one that appears to be most seizure-like."

He added later: "Now, obviously, I have not personally evaluated President Trump, but what we are observing certainly appears like seizure activity. We're seeing it spread from one side of his body to his face to the other side. There are many different reasons that people can experience this kind of neurological dysfunction. A couple of examples being the effects of a stroke or vascular dementia."

Trump also appeared to begin speaking a bit faster after the apparent episode, which Garrison said was an emerging "pattern" related to these behaviors that he has noticed more and more lately.

Earlier in the event, Garrison highlighted Trump once again appearing to slip into "microsleeps," including when he appeared to be closing his eyes while someone else was speaking. This issue could also be exacerbated by his "absurdly short attention span," since he lately appears to struggle "to sustain attention for more than a few seconds unless he's the one talking."

Later, while examining a rally appearance Trump made in Kentucky, Garrison noted signs of confusion in his address, including in a segment where he was attempting to mock former President Joe Biden, mentioning a supposed gaffe where Biden seemed to think he was in Florida while visiting Maine, also mentioning "the palm trees all over the place."

"What he's talking about makes no sense because I've researched this. I can't find where this gaffe that he's claiming happened actually occurred. And on top of that, if he was in Maine, there wouldn't be palm trees. What he's saying really makes no sense... But even President Trump seems to be confused by his own story. He starts trailing off there. Doesn't seem to know what he's talking about."

The truth behind Christiane Amanpour’s exit as CNN execs begged her to stay

Legendary host and reporter Christiane Amanpour announced she was leaving CNN on Monday, not long after David and Larry Ellison made their ownership official.

The Ellisons' purchase of CBS in Aug. 2025 ushered in the network's lack of independence on the news side, insiders have said over the past year. Less than 24 hours before Amanpour's announcement, Semafor reported that editor-in-chief Bari Weiss had CBS News reporters chasing conspiracy theories that Texas Democrat James Talarico was in a mental health facility in Ohio, among others.

What has happened at CBS News over the past year appears to have helped with Amanpour's decision to leave.

According to Oliver Darcy's "Status," Amanpour convened a meeting on Monday morning with her team and by 11 a.m., CNN chief Mark Thompson was sending a memo to the full network announcing she was leaving.

"After more than 43 years at CNN, Christiane has decided that the time is right to begin a new chapter," Thompson wrote. "Early in 2027, she will scale back her CNN International show, Amanpour, to once a week. The program will conclude in May, and she will leave CNN at the end of June."

Darcy explained that many CNN contracts expire in 2027, but Amanpour's public exit as the first doesn't bode well for the network's future.

The Daily Beast said that Thompson "personally begged" the reporter not to leave. Meanwhile, he also launched "a quiet, unsuccessful campaign to stop their premier international anchor from walking out the door." However, she had her own concerns about the news network under the new owners.

Darcy also learned that the journalist's health somewhat influenced her decision. The two-time cancer survivor revealed that her ovarian cancer returned for the third time, though she assured it was "being very well managed." But Amanpour decided it was time to move on anyway.

Thompson confessed in his message that he'd been trying to persuade her to stay for months, to no avail.

“Christiane has thought carefully about this decision, and she and I have been discussing it for some months,” Thompson wrote.

She, like many, is concerned that the Ellisons' acquisition of the network could shift the news networks away from fact-based reporting and more toward support for President Donald Trump and other Republicans.

When reporters told him on October 6, 2026, that the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger had closed, Trump cheered, “I’m happy about that. That’s great. It’s gonna be a great company. They’re terrific people, and it’s gonna be a great company.”

“That’s a great merger. I’m glad they let it go," he added.

Trump has long opposed CNN, claiming that the network is spreading “poison and lies." The network is one of three that Trump has attempted to remove from the White House. In fact, this year marked the second attempt Trump made to remove CNN, the first being with reporter Jim Acosta during his first term.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth similarly cheered, “The sooner David Ellison takes over that network, the better.”

Trump’s 'freak show' rallies have a problem even Republicans can’t ignore

A prominent Republican from Kansas has called out President Donald Trump’s campaign rallies and questioned how effective they are in getting voters to turn up at the polls.

Former Kansas Gov. Bill Graves compared Trump campaign events to a “freak show at the carnival” during a CNN interview Monday, questioning whether the president showing up to support Sen. Roger Marshall in his reelection campaign would actually help.

Graves, who governed deep-red Kansas from 1995 to 2003, told CNN’s Erin Burnett that people may show up simply to see Trump put on a clown show.

“It’s always very entertaining,” Graves said, but added that he finds it hard to believe it would translate into more votes for Marshall.

Trump took his multi-state campaign rally to Wichita Monday to support the Republican incumbent as polls show a surprisingly competitive Senate race in a state the president carried by about 16 points in 2024.

This intervention comes as Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, mounts a challenge in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1932.

Graves believes that Trump’s presence may actually help the Democrat win, telling Burnett:

“I mean, this is -- this is just another indication of, I think, Trump's infatuation with his own self loving to get in front of audiences. They're obviously, you know, the MAGA crowd that's going to adore him, which he gravitates towards, but whether it has any real. political benefit. In fact, if anything, as Adam Hamilton has said, this may end up energizing his supporters even more."

A recent New York Times poll puts both Marshall and Hamilton at 45 percent. CNN reported that Hamilton raised $9 million between July and September, compared with about $800,000 for Marshall over the same period, which appears to suggest the GOP underestimated how competitive this race would become.

Graves has already crossed party lines to support Hamilton; he criticized Marshall's record in Washington and said the senator gave voters no good reasons to reelect him.

Graves also mentioned rising prices and the damage caused by agricultural tariffs.

The former governor also maintained that Trump embrace of Marshall shows he is willing to follow the president rather than use his own judgment.

During the interview, Burnett showed clips of Trump calling Marshall one of the finest people in government and predicting his victory.

Hamilton told CNN he welcomed Trump’s appearance because it showed how tight the race actually is if they need to send the most powerful political figure to defend a seat that once appeared secure.

Trump acknowledged the contest was close before arriving in Kansas, but claimed the polls were fake.

Republican strategists still see his rallies as a way to mobilize supporters who might otherwise stay home, but many GOP candidates fighting for their seats are hesitant to embrace Trump due to his unpopular policies and deeply low approval ratings.

Graves also believes that Trump fans may not necessarily embrace Marshall. Despite the tight polling, the Cook Political Report still favored Republicans, moving the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”

Despite the polling, Graves believes Hamilton could win while acknowledging it would be difficult in such a red state.

Chaotic sprint for logic ignites GOP over Trump sanctions move

It took almost a year for Sen. Lindsey O. Graham Jr. to persuade Donald Trump to agree to the Russian sanctions package, notes the Associated Press.

It took a relative moment to destroy it, ignoring an overwhelming vote in Congress to ignore a newly passed law as it was about to take effect on Sunday.

The measure, designed to impose steep tariffs on countries that import large amounts of Russian oil and energy products, and was promoted to help halt the flow of funds fueling Vladimir’s Putin’s four-year war against Ukraine – and to support U.S. diplomatic efforts in seeking an end to the war with Iran, amid reports that Russia has been helping Iran to target U.S. service members.

By Monday, The Wall Street Journal was reporting that Trump is hearing a proposal to settle the Russia-Ukraine at a summit with Russia and China, ignoring Ukraine altogether.

What Trump has wrought just a couple of weeks before the November election is a chaotic sprint for logic and a boatload of anger from Ukraine, European allies, bipartisan blocs of legislators and voters.

Together with a deal with Russia to export diesel oil globally in hopes of lowering pre-election domestic pump costs (that is not happening) and pressure on Ukraine to stop bombing Russian oil facilities, Trump put the U.S. on the side of invader Russia in that war, and he weirdly is aligning U.S. interests with greater business hopes with Russia over the apparent safety of U.S. troops in the Middle East.

Trump called it a move in the “national interest” – which apparently, he alone determines – ignoring the ineffective effect for any extra diesel distribution and denying U.S. intelligence that points to Russian involvement in targeting U.S. and Gulf bases.

It is this Trump-alone declaration “national interest,” another in a set of deals that appear to benefit himself and family, another in a series of moves in which Trump thumbs his nose at Congress and the law, that should be our focus.

Given the clear case for sanctions, there is no reason to believe that Trump will not use the same power to declare “national interests” to justify interference with state-run elections, the seating of election winners, adherence to court decisions, approval for his gilded personal glorification projects or continued excess in his mass deportation campaign.

Trump’s Shift to Russia

As Axios notes, whether it was the diesel deal or a fight over Ukraine’s ability to use Starshield technology to defend itself against Russian munitions, or the public denial of Russian involvement in the Iran war, Trump has spent the last few days shifting America’s position on an old foe.

For sure, House and Senate Republicans are suddenly ornery about getting set aside, and threatening to block additional Pentagon funding in the lame-duck congressional session that will follow elections unless the administration recants, and get tougher on Russia. War/Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is seeking at least $350 billion in new military spending as part of a partisan reconciliation bill.

Rolling Stone Magazine is going further, raising the question of “treason” by Trump because of the suspension of sanctions. The legal definition of “treason” as a crime may not fit because the United States is not formally at war with Russia, and the president has broad constitutional authority to manage foreign affairs and sanctions.

But the sense shared internationally that there is a deep betrayal of national interest here by Trump is hard to avoid.

“Treason” as a charged crime is a reason cited in the Constitution for impeachment of the president. Betrayal is merely political.

For sure, Trump, who also insisted that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to a non-existent, immediate energy ceasefire, has risked more civilian Ukrainian lives to Russian missile attacks on non-military electricity plants, and made resistance much more difficult just before onset of winter. As well, Trump has done nothing to advance the resolution of the more immediate causes of oil interruptions with Iran.

The Politics Make No Sense

Moving deliberately closer to Russia and Putin raises a host of legal, moral, diplomatic and strategic questions, of course. Doing so just before an election in which Republican candidates are fighting to retain a majority in Congress while trying to defend these moves is a head-scratcher. It makes no sense politically either.

The sheer number of normally silent Republican senators who are finding fault with Trump over the Russia shuffle is noteworthy – including Sen. Darline Graham, sister of the senator whose name and reputation are all over the sanctions bill.

Clearly Democrats are seizing on the moment to point out Trump’s historic lean over time to find reason to support Russia, even as Trump fights relentlessly against perceptions that a “weaponized” Justice Department had investigated longtime ties between his family and business with Russian operatives and oligarchs.

Trump made public statements about national security to justify a change in sanctions policies, then backed off a bit. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Trump would take 60 days to review global and U.S. economic impacts from imposing sanctions on Russia and other countries, considering tariffs already in place.

New York Rep. Gregory Meeks, ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee who had led opposition to the Graham bill — warned that Trump would flout the law. He has introduced legislation to block Trump’s diesel deal with Putin.
The sanctions were scheduled to kick in Sunday designed to squeeze Russia’s economy and deprive it of cash to fund its war against Ukraine. The legislation also targets the world’s top five buyers of Russian oil and gas and extends sanctions against Iran. Some pre-2026 sanctions by the U.S. and Europe remain in place to restrict Russian energy export, shadow fleets and other trade goods.

Terry H. Schwadron retired as a senior editor at The New York Times, Deputy Managing Editor at The Los Angeles Times and leadership jobs at The Providence (RI) Journal-Bulletin. He was part of a Pulitzer Gold Medal team in Los Angeles, and his team part of several Pulitzers in New York.

Delusional Truth Social rant proves Trump has finally lost the plot

Defending Karl Rove isn't something that comes easily to anyone who observed his Machiavellian machinations during the second Bush administration. But whatever guilt he may bear from that era, the political strategist his boss called "Turd Blossom" is getting a bum rap from the current president.

Evidently Donald Trump wants to blame Rove for the impending Republican disaster in Texas, where James Talarico now looks like he can edge Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race. Losing the Lone Star State would be an epoch-making event for the GOP -- and in a lengthy Truth Social post, Trump is already attempting to deflect blame for the disaster.

At this point it must be said, in order to avoid inviting bad juju, that the current opinion polls cannot predict what will happen in Texas or any of the midterm elections next month. But what can be said with great confidence is that should Paxton and a host of other Republican Senatorial nominees suffer such a momentous loss, the fault will not lie with Rove or any other MAGA scapegoat.

That responsibility will fall squarely on Trump, whose ranting and raving will achieve nothing except to reinforce the widespread sense that he is losing the plot. Whatever the ultimate results may be, Republicans now face the likelihood that they will lose dozens of House seats and the possibility that they will lose the Senate too -- an unexpected set of perils that can only be attributed to one man (along with his eager stooges).

Trump proclaimed that Rove and Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), the incumbent ousted in the primary after he endorsed Paxton, "are doing everything possible to make it hard for Ken Paxton to win." But Trump unintentionally revealed the real obstacle for Texas Republicans in that post's delusional description of Paxton as "the Greatest Attorney General in the History of Texas, and one of the Best in the United States." In fact, Paxton is a credibly suspected crook who narrowly escaped removal from office by the Texas legislature -- and whose own staff thought he should be prosecuted for corruption.

Beyond all that, Paxton campaigns under the shadow of Trump himself, a president who won Texas by a wide margin and now suffers negative approval ratings there.

None of this would have happened if Trump had merely stifled his own dislike of Cornyn and his irrepressible impulse to promote any politician who kisses his rump with sufficient gusto.

If the Republicans lose any of other battleground Senate races -- again underlining if -- then Trump will assuredly assign culpability to someone else, just as he has resisted answering for any failure, bankruptcy or defeat throughout his long life. But in each and every case -- if the Republican loses -- there will be nobody else to hold accountable.

Look at the two races that the Senate Republican leadership has apparently abandoned as hopeless by canceling millions of dollars in advertising. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, the Democratic incumbent, was seen as highly vulnerable when the cycle began last year. But that was before Trump intervened to tilt the Republican nomination to Rep. Mike Collins, a tainted politician under investigation by the House Ethics Committee and seemingly surrounded by white supremacists on his staff and campaign.

Or consider North Carolina, where Trump first drove GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, a decent bet for reelection, into retirement -- and then pushed the nomination to Michael Whatley, a party hack with no record of accomplishment. Best known for screwing up the state's recovery from Hurricane Helene, Whatley has wrecked his own chances -- despite Trump's fulsome description of him as "a great man" and "a great leader."

As for the incumbent Republicans whose tenure now seems threatened, they too can trace their woes to Trump. Without his burdensome presence around their necks, GOP senators like Ohio's Jon Husted, Kansas's Roger Marshall and Nebraska's Pete Ricketts surely would have cruised into another term without a drop of sweat.

They all may win on Nov. 3. Yet should they lose, or win by a razor-thin margin, everyone except Trump will understand why -- and that will underscore just how gravely he has damaged his own party and the country.

Trump blamed Democrats — but now 67% of Americans blame him

On the first day of his second term, President Donald Trump declared that the United States was experiencing a “national energy emergency.” The “harmful and shortsighted policies of the previous administration,” he wrote in an executive order, had left the nation’s energy resources “far too inadequate,” a situation that “causes and makes worse the high energy prices that devastate Americans.” Since then, Trump has attempted to use the emergency declaration to speed up permits for fossil fuel development and bolster the nation’s power grid with more fossil fuel resources.

This story was originally published by Grist. Sign up for Grist's weekly newsletter here.


Almost two years later, as Trump stares down a midterm election, his claim of an emergency has an ironic ring. The United States is experiencing a kind of energy emergency characterized by high fuel prices, but it is not the one he described when he took office. Not only that, but the executive powers he unlocked with his emergency order have proven useless for mitigating the current crisis and for lowering the high prices he decried upon taking office.

“The genesis of the problem is the war in Iran,” said Gbenga Ajilore, the chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan economic think tank, who has analyzed Trump’s energy policy. Trump’s attack on the country has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of refineries and oil fields, which has reduced the global supply of refined fuels like gasoline and diesel. The supply crunch for these refined fuels has been even worse than for crude oil, and has hit wallets harder.

This irony points to a hard truth about how the fossil fuel system works. Even with all the powers available to the executive branch, Trump has not been able to tamp down prices either for petroleum fuels or for electricity. He has been able to muscle through specific oil projects and keep certain power plants open, but the markets for oil and power are so large and complex that these interventions have made no difference in consumer prices. Whether these high prices constitute an emergency or not, there isn’t much he can do about it — short of ending the war in Iran.

“If you reverse that, it may not drop like a rock, but it’s going to start going down,” said Ajilore. “Outside of that, there really isn’t much to do.”

Electricity: Keeping coal plants running

The practical impacts of Trump’s energy emergency declaration have affected two key parts of the energy system, the areas where the president had the biggest disagreements with the Biden administration. The first was the power grid, where former president Joe Biden sought to deploy large new amounts of solar and wind power even as data centers drove up electricity demand. Trump promised on the campaign trail that he would cut energy bills in half, and he directed federal agencies to “identify and exercise any lawful emergency authorities available to them” to facilitate power generation.

The Energy Department took the order and ran with it. Secretary Chris Wright, a noted champion of fossil fuels, has issued several emergency orders to prevent the scheduled retirement of coal plants around the country. The secretary argued in these orders that strained grid conditions made it necessary to preserve all available power capacity, even though the utilities that ran the plants were trying to shut them down.

Instead of reducing energy prices, these orders have come at significant costs. In Michigan, keeping the J.H. Campbell plant open has cost ratepayers in the Midwest almost $300 million on net, even though the plant is generating far less power than it did before the order. In Colorado, a utility has had to continue operating a coal plant it was about to retire even though the plant is broken and needs serious maintenance. In many cases, the retiring plants were among the oldest and least efficient facilities in their region, so keeping them on doesn’t save consumers money even if they do add power to the grid.

It took a while, but the courts have started to question these interventions. In September, after Michigan sued over the coal plant mandate at Campbell, an appellate court blocked the Department of Energy’s order, rejecting the administration’s reading of federal law. The judge in the case also took issue with the administration’s claims of an energy emergency in the region’s grid, writing that Wright’s assertion of an emergency was “unpersuasive” and that his policy “invites frequent federal interventions that … threaten the stability of the energy market.”

“We saw in the Michigan case that the facts just don’t match up with the claims and with the law, and I suspect that in some of these other cases, if not all of them, we’ll see similar decisions,” said Melissa Birchard, the mitigation program director at the Georgetown Climate Center, a research institute based at Georgetown Law School. The state’s utility commission and the regional grid operator both rejected the idea that there was an energy shortage in the region around the Campbell plant.

Crude oil: Drill, baby, drill

The other area where the administration used the emergency declaration to reverse Biden-era policy was in the oil and gas sector. Here, too, there was no critical shortage, as U.S. oil and natural gas production were both near all-time highs. While Biden approved some large drilling projects such as the Willow effort in Alaska, he attempted to block oil leases in the Gulf of Mexico and canceled the Keystone XL oil pipeline. Trump’s executive order attempts to steamroll the environmental and procedural permits that have slowed down energy development in the past — the order directs agencies to use “all relevant lawful emergency and other authorities” to “expedite” the construction of oil wells, pipelines, and other energy facilities. It also seeks to waive the Clean Water Act and the Endangered Species Act wherever possible.

The order has produced a few notable wins for the fossil fuel industry. Earlier this year the Trump administration convened what is known as the “God Squad,” a committee of Cabinet secretaries with the power to override the Endangered Species Act. In a meeting that lasted only a few minutes, the committee waived all species protections for oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, a measure that will enable BP to pursue a deepwater rig project known as Kaskida.

The order also directed the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to speed through permitting for pipelines and other infrastructure under the Clean Water Act, and the Corps last year identified a list of around 600 projects eligible for fast-tracking. It later withdrew that list, but some projects on its permitting database are still tagged with “energy emergency,” such as Enbridge’s Line 5 oil pipeline replacement, a mineral sands mine owned by Chemours, and a natural gas pipeline in Florida. It’s unclear whether and when these projects would have moved forward absent the order, but expediting them won’t do anything to bring down the high prices Trump mentioned in his emergency declaration. The largest of them, Kaskida, is years away from producing oil, and would only produce a small fraction of the oil that moves through the Strait of Hormuz in a normal month.

In addition to Michigan’s Campbell lawsuit, around a dozen states have sued the Trump administration over his original executive order, arguing that there is no energy emergency in the United States. The oral argument in that case is scheduled for October 20, and Birchard expects that the courts will view the “emergency” declaration with the same skepticism as in the Campbell case.

“We see this accumulated effort to declare emergencies,” Birchard said. The question is “whether the courts are going to start saying, ‘Hey, one emergency we might have believed, two emergencies we might’ve believed, but now we’re seeing a pattern of many, many emergencies. How do we set up, you know, a set of facts that really supports that many emergencies?”

Meanwhile, a separate crisis has unfolded in a segment of the energy system where Trump’s order has had almost no effect. The United States and the rest of the world are experiencing a shortage of refined fuels like gasoline and diesel, which has driven up prices not only at the gas pump but also for major goods that are hauled on diesel trucks. The price of gasoline remains well above $4 a gallon, and the price of diesel is at an historic high of over $6 a gallon. The so-called “crack spread,” or difference in price between refined and crude oil, reached a multi-year high over the summer as well.

The primary cause of this shortage is the war in Iran, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz and destroyed numerous Middle Eastern refineries, but Ukraine’s attacks on Russia have also destroyed several oil refineries. The flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered over the eight months of the war thanks in part to American military escorts for tankers, and countries like Saudi Arabia have also managed to export their oil through other channels, which has prevented a global crude shortage. The problem is that consumers don’t buy crude oil. They buy gasoline and diesel, products that are produced at massive refineries.

There is little Trump can do to mitigate this rise in prices. Refineries in the U.S. are already operating at maximum capacity to take advantage of high profit margins, and many large refineries have delayed scheduled maintenance so they can keep producing as much fuel as possible while high prices last.

“Refiners are running close to flat out,” said Abhi Rajendran, the head of research at Energy Intelligence, a firm that analyzes developments in the oil and gas sector. “They’re making money, but there’s not really any kind of slack to ramp things up.”

The only solution to high prices would be to produce more gasoline and diesel, but the refinery system isn’t flexible enough to do that. There are only a few dozen major refineries in the country, as opposed to many thousands of oil wells, and each refinery can only produce so much before it needs maintenance. Refineries cost many billions of dollars to build, they break or shut down all the time, and companies like Marathon and Chevron see no reason to construct new ones in the United States. Overall demand for refined products has declined over the past few years as cars grow more fuel-efficient and consumers embrace electric vehicles.

“Refined product demand has actually been in decline for a long time,” said Rajendran. “In normal times, [refinery capacity] is more than adequate. There’s no real economic case for new refineries, because if these wars end, then it’s just wasted money.”

Trump’s original executive order mentions refining, but it did not do anything to expand refinery capacity, which has left the president with few good options. He considered a diesel export ban, which would prevent companies from selling American diesel overseas, but backed off after opposition from the oil and gas industry. In any case, it would only have caused a marginal decrease in prices, and might have caused prices to rise further as refiners cut back their production.

The president’s other efforts, like buying Russian diesel and encouraging states to expand diesel subsidies, will likely have an even smaller impact. The total amount of diesel that Russia has promised to deliver “immediately” as part of Trump’s recent deal is equivalent to less than one day of U.S. diesel consumption.

The upshot is that absent a breakthrough in Iran, high fuel prices will likely last through the year. While the states that sued Trump over the emergency order argue that steep energy prices themselves don’t constitute an emergency, it seems clear that many Americans feel strained by their gasoline and power bills. A recent Fox News poll found that more than 8 in ten Americans are concerned about gas prices, while the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell this summer to its lowest level on record. Another recent poll, from the Associated Press, found that two-thirds of Americans blame Trump for high costs, while only one-third blamed “factors outside Trump’s control.”

Grist is a nonprofit, independent media organization dedicated to reporting on climate change.

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