In order to take control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms, Democrats would need to flip at least four GOP-held seats while holding all of the seats they're defending. Democratic strategists are feeling bullish about their chances of recapturing the U.S. House of Representatives, while Republican insiders fear that the Senate is in play for Democrats as well. But according to The Hill's Alexander Bolton, Republicans are hoping and praying that possible upsets in three northern states will help save their Senate majority.
Those northern states are Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire. While Donald Trump narrowly won Michigan, he lost New Hampshire by only 3 percent — which isn't a lot for a New English state. And Trump lost Minnesota by roughly 4 percent.
"Republicans argued they've expanded the map to put Michigan and Minnesota — two Democratic-leaning seats — within their reach, as well as the race for the seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)," Bolton explains. "Cook rates New Hampshire and Michigan as toss-ups, while Minnesota is likely Democratic.
But Real Clear Politics, the nonpartisan media company that tracks polls and elections, on Friday, moved the Minnesota Senate race to 'toss-up' status."
Bolton notes that if Democrats pull off upsets in any Senate races in any red states — for example, Alaska, Kansas or Texas — GOP upsets in Michigan, Minnesota or New Hampshire would soften the blow for Republicans.
"Senators in both parties say the Senate midterm election battleground map has expanded significantly six months before Election Day, putting the GOP majority in greater jeopardy," Bolton reports. "Several solidly Republican-leaning states — including Kansas and Nebraska — are now seen as being in play, the senators say. Democrats can also add New Hampshire to the list of toss-up seats they are defending. The Granite State and Michigan are hosting competitive races that are providing hope for Republicans and some nervousness for Democrats. But overall, the widening map is putting more pressure on Republicans."
Bolton adds, "While Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) is seen as relatively safe in Georgia, a number of GOP incumbents are looking nervously at polls given the changing dynamics. The senators point to voter anger over rising gas and diesel prices as the biggest factor driving the shift of sentiment toward Democrats even in traditionally GOP-leaning states."
Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vermont) argues that Trump is making it harder for Senate Republicans to win reelection.
Welch told The Hill, "Donald Trump is doing everything he can to sabotage the campaigns of Republican incumbents. This could be a big blue wave, absolutely."
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island) told The Hill, "I think we have nine Senate pickups possible and need to put our resources into making sure we win as many of those that we can."
