The top global political-risk research and consulting firm, the Eurasia Group, penned its "Top Risks" to watch for in 2026 and named President Donald Trump's leadership of the United States among the major concerns.
Ian Bremmer, who leads the Eurasia Group, cautioned, "The United States is itself unwinding its own global order. The world's most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution."
"In our lifetimes, we have never witnessed an American president so committed to and so capable of changing the political system and, accordingly, the United States' role in the world," he added.
The report explains that 2026 is a "tipping point year."
In a video for the top risk, Bremmer explained that they rank the items by calculating "the impact, the likelihood and the imminence, altogether." The list must include items with global implications and not be limited to any particular region of the world.
"The U.S. is undoing its own global order and having the capacity to drive that disruption," Bremmer explained in the video.
One of the top revolutions of the past century, he said, was the political revolution in the U.S. by Trump "meant to weaponize political institutions and levels of power that Trump believes has been weaponized against him, undo the administrative state, make it loyal to the presidency, and reduce or destroy the checks and balances on the US executive."
He noted that it's unclear whether the Trump revolution will be successful, but said thus far the checks and balances have been "weaker than most would have expected."
For example, he cited the Democrats in Congress, who, he said, "have been weaker than expected in responding." Another is the "corporate institutions, financial institutions, the corporate media, privately have been concerned, but publicly have been very unwilling to take on an oppositional role for fear that they're going to get steamrolled or worse."
It means, he said, that there is a higher likelihood that Trump's political revolution will be "more successful" before it's stopped.
