Karl Rove warns GOP is on precipice of first statewide 'Democratic victory since 1994 in Texas'

Conservative political strategist and Fox News pundit Karl Rove says that if Texas nominates Attorney General Ken Paxton instead of incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), the state may very well flip blue, according to Mediaite.

Paxton is known for a series of high-profile lawsuits and was acquitted of 16 articles of impeachment brought by the House of Representatives including bribery and abuse of public trust. In April 2025, he announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate, setting up a primary challenge against incumbent Cornyn.

Paxton's campaign has sought to portray him as more aligned with President Donald Trump than Cornyn, but Rove says it's not so.

Talking to Fox's "Sunday Night in America with Trey Gowdy" host, Rove surmised Trump "understands that it would be problematic if he were to endorse against a sitting Republican senator, particularly one is respected as John Cornyn."

Rove maintained that "if Cornyn is the Republican nominee, [it’s] a gimme for the Republicans," but if not, Republicans are in deep trouble.

"And if his principal opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton,were to be the nominee, given the scandals, and indictments, and guilty pleas, and girlfriends, and mistresses, and jobs traded for mistresses, for influence inside the Attorney General’s office on issues important to corrupt, indicted, real estate guys, that’s not going to be a pleasant opportunity for Republicans to keep that seat," Rove says.

More than a win for Paxton, he says, it could mean a win for the Democrats, Rove warns.

"And we may, if Paxton were the nominee, see the first Democratic victory since 1994, statewide in Texas."