President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) speaking to reporters at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., Tuesday, May 20, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
Many of the GOP lawmakers who are deciding against seeking reelection in the 2026 midterms fear coming up against tough Democratic challengers in the general election — especially in light of all the victories Democrats have been enjoying in special elections.
But MS NOW's Ryan Teague Beckwith, in an opinion column published on April 28, examines the possible motivations of House Republicans who aren't seeking reelection despite being in either safely red districts or in red states.
"The number of House members who have opted not to run for reelection has surged, marking the largest wave of departures in three decades," Beckwith observes. "A handful of them are Republicans from swing districts who appeared to be headed toward a loss in the November elections. But a lot more are from safe GOP seats that would likely withstand the biggest of blue waves, and their possible reasons for leaving are an indication of what’s going wrong in Washington."
Beckwith adds, "In all, 55 incumbents have announced they will not run for reelection, the highest since 1992, when a record 65 members of both parties retired after it was revealed that many of them were intentionally overdrawing their House bank accounts by thousands of dollars without paying a penalty."
According to Beckwith, the deep polarization in U.S. politics is a key factor.
"In the past, a lawmaker who literally could not lose might have stuck around even when in the minority, since they could still influence bills while going through committee or as part of a negotiation with the majority," Beckwith explains. "But partisan polarization has turned more legislating into party-line votes and massive omnibus bills introduced at the last minute, leaving members of the minority with little to do. Even being in the majority has not been much fun for the current crop of Republicans, who not only have to answer questions about President Donald Trump's constant controversies but also don’t have much to show for it."
Beckwith adds, "The current Congress is likely to be one of the least productive sessions in history, with fewer votes taken and laws passed than usual."
Trump, according to the MS NOW columnist, "bears a lot of the blame" — along with a view that Congress has become a "partisan, dysfunctional and underpaid mess."
"(Trump) has spent much of his second term legislating by fiat — signing executive orders, allowing the Department of Government Efficiency to run wild and directing members of his Cabinet to take actions that would have gone through Congress in the past," Beckwith notes. "He regularly has said he can 'do whatever I want as president' and does not 'need Congress' to take such actions as attacking Iran, imposing tariffs, withholding spending or potentially withdrawing from NATO. In October, Trump even said he already had gotten everything he needed for the rest of his term from Congress."
