The Jeffrey Epstein scandal that once helped power Donald Trump’s comeback played a real role in Republicans’ midterm rout on Tuesday, according to GOP insiders, pollsters and operatives who spoke to The Atlantic.
A Republican close to the White House described the Epstein issue as the “nuclear fuel” behind a new brand of American populism. It first lifted Trump, the magazine reported, but this week, it turned against him, “bringing him down to the lowest point of his presidency,” as many of his voters came to see his handling of the case as a betrayal.
Republican pollster Brent Buchanan told The Atlantic that Epstein became “a proxy for corruption” in the campaign. Rich Baris, director of Big Data Poll, traced the beginning of the fracture in the MAGA coalition to July 2025, when the Justice Department and FBI announced there would be no further Epstein disclosures. He said that the Iran war following the Epstein scandal made it “a devastating one-two punch.”
On the campaign trail, Trump promised to release the Epstein files and stocked his administration with figures who had stoked interest in the case, including Kash Patel, Dan Bongino and JD Vance. Once in power, the process sputtered. Attorney General Pam Bondi said the supposed client list was on her desk, only for the administration to reverse course months later with little explanation.
Trump then lashed out at his own base on Truth Social, writing of past supporters who believed the story: “I don’t want their support anymore!” Some former backers told pollsters that deepened their suspicions. Trump later tried to stop Congress from voting to release the files, relenting only once enough Republicans broke ranks to pass the measure.
Even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said the party should have voted to release the files sooner, calling the election as close to an “extinction-level event” for Republicans in parts of the country as any in probably a century.
Democrats seized on the issue, branding opponents the “Epstein class.” AdImpact tracked at least $76 million in ads mentioning Epstein, overwhelmingly from Democrats. Epstein surfaced in ads in at least 79 races across 26 states.
The White House pushed back. Spokesperson Lauren Bis said that “President Trump has done more for Epstein’s victims than anyone before him.” The Atlantic also noted the Iran war and soaring gas prices may have been most voters’ top concerns.
Now Democrats face their own test. Rep. Jamie Raskin, expected to chair the House Judiciary Committee, plans to press the Justice Department to release roughly 2.5 million remaining Epstein-related documents. The department says it has released everything the law requires.
Robert Garcia, the incoming House Oversight chair, summed up his plans in two words: “Lawyer up.”
