The staff at The Bulwark took inventory on predictions made as President Donald Trump muscled his way back into the White House last year. Some forecasts — such as Trump having the proper judgment to fire the worst of his bumbling staff — fell flat as Americans learned Trump’s mental state was a lower bar than predicted.
Others, however, panned out as expected.
“My dark horse prediction for 2025 is that Donald Trump has a health event,” said Bulwark podcaster Tim Miller. “And I think that this is inevitable based on the actuarial tables to happen during his presidency, because … Donald Trump's machismo and his strength is such an important part of his political brand.”
Bulwark columnist Mona Charen, acting as judge for Bulwark’s prediction, said Miller did not foresee the administration’s talent for covering up the president’s health, however.
“He's declining noticeably,” said Charen. “His health is declining. That's clear. He's got those things on his hands. He's stumbling a bit. He's falling asleep. But that's not a health event.”
Bulwark Managing Editor Sam Stein disagreed, however, pointing out that its not Miller’s fault the administration is a brick wall on the president’s failing vigor.
“I would give Tim at least one point,” said Stein. “I think with the hand stuff, there's something up there. And there's all this question about why he had an MRI. They're not really being forthcoming about it. We don't know. And because it's so clouded in uncertainty, I feel like that deserves at least one point. So, we have a little bit of a disagreement.”
Both “Judge” Stein and Charen ruled in favor of Bulwark writer Will Saletan, whose dark horse prediction for 2025 was that Donald Trump was going to pardon New York Mayor Eric Adams.
“Why would Donald Trump pardon a Democrat? The reason is Donald Trump is not fundamentally a Republican. Donald Trump is fundamentally a criminal,” said Saletan a year ago. “And so he loves white collar criminals like himself. … [H]e sympathizes with guys who have been convicted by law enforcement, by the justice system.”
Stein and Charen disagreed on the semantics of the pardon, however, seeing as how Trump did not pardon Adams but merely instructed his politicized DOJ to drop its corruption case against the mayor.”
The judges also awarded top points to Bulwark White House Correspondent Andrew Egger for correctly predicting “more MAGA infighting” in 2025.
“I actually had forgotten about Egger, so he also gets a five,” said Charen, referencing the current war underway between antisemitic and pro-Israel factions duking it out over the Heritage Foundation’s embrace of MAGA influencer and white nationalist Nick Fuentes and the people who give Fuentes a platform.
There’s also division in the MAGA ranks over Trump’s foot-dragging on the release of the files of convicted sex-trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, wherein Trump’s name is generously peppered. That division appears to be between young MAGA influencers and aging Fox News elites.
“Completely spot on,” agreed Stein. “I mean, not exactly the craziest prediction — he didn't really walk out [on a limb] with that one. But I think the actual magnitude of the infighting is much bigger than I actually expected. So, Egger gets five. And everyone knows I'm loathe to give Egger any credit whatsoever. So, this is a real five.”
Watch the Bulwark podcast at this link.
