Dem pollsters say party ripe for 'earthquake in the midterms' after learning a key lesson

In an article for The Washington Post published Wednesday, veteran Democratic pollsters James Carville and Stanley B. Greenberg argued that socialist Zohran Mamdani's victory in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary on Tuesday hints at a potential boon for Democrats in next year's congressional and gubernatorial elections.

"Watch for an earthquake in the midterms," they wrote.

Carville and Greenberg wrote that while the common belief is that Democrats are struggling — with voters seeing their leaders as ineffective on middle-class issues and primary voters favoring far-left candidates like Mamdani — the real story is more nuanced.

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Recent primary results in New Jersey and Virginia, they argued, contradict that narrative. They noted that in both states, Democratic voters chose candidates with bipartisan appeal: Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and prosecutor in New Jersey, and Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer in Virginia

Their wins, the pollsters argued, suggest Democrats are moving toward a more moderate, mainstream path, picking leaders who resonate with a broader electorate rather than the activist fringe.

"In the past two years, no mainstream statewide candidate has lost to a challenger from the Bernie Sanders wing. In fact, two members of 'the Squad' — Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri — lost their House seats in Democratic primaries last year," they added.

"The party’s primary voters are the party. They’ve been picking candidates who are taking the Democratic Party in a different direction and by and large addressing its horrible brand problems," the pollsters wrote in the joint article.

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According to Carville and Greenberg, "the reason is the great majority of Democratic voters hate the activist, elite agenda that dominated the Democratic Party under President Joe Biden."