U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts attends inauguration ceremonies in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol on January 20, 2025 in Washington, DC. Chip Somodevilla/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
The Supreme Court’s recent decision to gut the 1965 Voting Rights Act has left both Democrats and Republicans scrambling to redistrict to their advantage — and at least one conservative is warning that the liberal party will not only work to keep up but plan big payback for the court that made it all necessary.
“Party leaders are already plotting how to counteract the gerrymanders that Republicans are expected to undertake in Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, and Louisiana,” The Bulwark’s Laura Egan wrote on Wednesday. “House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has pointed to New York, Illinois, Maryland, and Colorado as states where Democrats could redistrict ahead of the 2028 election cycle. Other Democratic officials whom I spoke with said there’s discussion about pursuing redistricting in Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, and New Jersey as well.”
Because the Supreme Court’s ruling is what ramped up insane gerrymandering, some Democrats are calling for the Supreme Court to be packed to offset the influence of the conservative judges. Overall, Egan explained that the dynamics of American politics have changed since Joe Biden stood down from Supreme Court reform.
“The political scene looks very different today from how it looked in 2020 when Biden was so gun-shy about reforming the Court,” Egan wrote. “Since then, SCOTUS has struck down Roe v. Wade, granted presidents immunity from criminal prosecution, and gutted the VRA. Not to mention the various ethics issues that have surfaced regarding Justice Clarence Thomas. A Pew Research Center survey last August found that the Court’s favorable rating was 22 percentage points lower than it was in August 2020.”
He added, “The circumstances have changed. The question Democrats will have to face is whether voter appetites have changed as well.”
Shortly after the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision, which curtailed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, Cook Political Report’s Erin Covey wrote that it is difficult to predict exactly which party will wind up ahead after they finish partisan gerrymandering.
“The Supreme Court’s April 29 decision in Louisiana v. Callais curtailed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, the provision of the law responsible for the creation of majority-minority districts,” Covey wrote. “The ruling has prompted an effort to redraw Louisiana’s maps before the 2026 midterm, which could net them up to two seats.”
Covey elaborated, “Republicans may also try to redistrict in other southern states — including Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama and Georgia — but it’s unclear whether gains will be possible for 2026 given the tight timelines lawmakers would be under to make changes.”
She further broke down the different dynamics facing each party.
“A best-case scenario for Republicans: new maps in Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri and Louisiana result in 13 Republican pick-ups, while new maps in California, Virginia and Utah result in seven Democratic pick-ups. Republicans would flip five seats, on net,” Covey argued. On the other hand, “a best-case scenario for Democrats: new maps in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas result in five Republican pick-ups. But new maps in California, Utah, and Virginia also allow Democrats to flip 10 seats, resulting in Democrats picking up five seats, on net.”
