On Wednesday, a former White House insider asserted that once President Donald Trump enters his lame duck stage and loses power, the GOP will “splinter” as it fights over the future of the party. This is according to strategist and former President Bill Clinton senior advisor Doug Sosnik, who writes in the New York Times that the post-Trump era will bring political tumult as the country struggles to move forward and rebuild.
“The chaos of the 20 months since President Donald Trump returned to office is nothing compared with the volatility that will follow the midterms,” writes Sosnik. “In less than 40 days, the convergence of multiple forces will further destabilize the U.S. political system as the country moves beyond an era dominated by Trump. This period will trigger a full-throated debate about the future of the country.” According to Sosnik, the first moment of struggle will come if and when the Democrats take the majority in the House and possibly the Senate, which could lead to Trump challenging the election results in a manner that has the potential to “destabilize American democracy.”
“Once Democrats take control, Trump will functionally become a lame-duck president,” writes Sosnik. “Trump has always made his own interests his top priority — and significant midterm losses for the Republicans could increase the urgency he feels to define his legacy before he leaves office. As Trump continues to age, his attempts to secure his place in history will probably be paired with even more erratic behavior. That will put even more distance between his administration and the rest of the GOP.”
It is then that the party will begin to “splinter,” asserts Sosnik. Trump’s coalition was always comprised of factions that were in conflict, and there is no other figure who can sustain that fragile alliance. “The factions will begin fighting over who will define the party,” asserts Sosnik. “Heavy Republican losses in November would widen these divisions. Already, the populist and establishment wings of the party are split. In an August NBC News Decision Desk poll, 45 percent of Republicans said they supported the MAGA movement over the party.” Sosnik predicts that populist forces will continue to gain power, and could play a major role in what the party’s message looks like in 2028. It will be the first open-seat presidential election in 12 years, in which no incumbent is vying for the position and pushing a first-term message, which will result in fierce debate over the political future.
With all this in mind, warns Sosnik, “The two years between the midterms and the 2028 election will be a period of transition between two political eras: the Age of Trump and the Age After Trump. Although little of substance is likely to get done, the policy fights in Washington and in the presidential campaign will shape the country’s direction after the election. The Age of Trump will probably be remembered less for building a new architecture for American governance than for dismantling the old one. It will fall to the next president to begin building something new. Until then, expect disorder.”
