2023 will 'put to rest' fantasies of 'optimistic pre-Trump conservatism' returning: GOP strategist
In 2020, Republican strategist Sarah Longwell was among the many Never Trump conservatives who endorsed Democrat Joe Biden for president. The move infuriated Trump supporters, who slammed Longwell as a RINO: Republican In Name Only. But Longwell, founder of Republican Accountability (formerly Republican Voters Against Trump) didn't budge and maintained that Trump and the MAGA movement have been terrible for conservatism.
Twenty-seven months into Biden's presidency, Longwell hasn't changed her views; she is still adamantly anti-Trump and anti-MAGA. Analyzing the 2024 GOP presidential primary in an article published by The Bulwark on April 17, Longwell predicts that 2023 will "put to rest" any hopes of the GOP returning to a pre-MAGA brand of conservatism.
The GOP, she observes, has its BT (Before Trump) era and its AT (After Trump) eras. And the AT mindset, Longwell laments, will prevail in the 2024 primary.
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"I've sat through hundreds of focus groups with GOP voters over the last four years, and one thing is perfectly clear: The Republican Party has been irretrievably altered," Longwell argues. "And, as one GOP voter put it succinctly, 'We're never going back.'"
So far, Republicans who have entered the 2024 GOP presidential primary include Trump, Nikki Haley (former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and ex-governor of South Carolina), and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Sen. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina) has launched an exploratory committee, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to run even though he hasn't made an official announcement.
"It's easy to identify people who don't realize the transformation undergone by GOP voters," Longwell observes. "Many of them, in fact, have been talking about running for president. Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pompeo — these are Before Trump (BT) politicians who don't quite realize they're living in an After Trump (AT) world…. If you forged your political identity pre-Trump, then you belong to a GOP establishment now loathed by a majority of Republican primary voters."
Longwell describes DeSantis as "the only viable challenger to Trump at the moment," noting that there is a "stark difference" between him and "other potential Republican candidates."
"Nikki Haley et al. seem to believe that they can win the nomination by returning to the optimistic conservatism of the 2015 Republican Party," the Never Trumper observes. "DeSantis realizes that his only chance to win the nomination is to convince voters that the optimistic, conservative BT version of himself didn't exist. Yet whatever happens from here on out, I suspect that 2023 will be the year that puts to rest the view that the old days will return."
In an opinion column published by the Daily Beast on April 17, Never Trump conservative Matt Lewis describes Scott's chances of becoming the GOP's 2024 presidential nominee as a "longshot" but says the South Carolina senator might have a chance if Trump and DeSantis "go nuclear' in the primary and tear one another to pieces.
Lewis argues, "Sometimes, frontrunners destroy each other and leave room for a breakout candidate to run up the middle. It’s theoretically possible that Trump and DeSantis could go nuclear on each other to the degree that the electorate yearns for some counter-programming. Scott's amiable and positive persona would stand in stark contrast to the personalities of both Trump and DeSantis."
The Beast columnist acknowledges, however, that it's unlikely Scott will be the nominee.
"Personally, I hope Tim Scott can pull it off," Lewis writes. "Putting aside the obvious character flaws involved in making excuses for Trump’s atrocities, Republicans could do a lot worse than a President or Vice President Tim Scott. Although it's a longshot, the notion that he could somehow emerge as the leading Republican contender for 2028 would provide a glimmer of hope for us otherwise homeless conservatives."
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Sarah Longwell's full Bulwark article is available at this link. Matt Lewis' Daily Beast column is here (subscription required).
