Over the weekend, researchers at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore reported yet another grim milestone: the coronavirus pandemic has now killed more than 500,000 people worldwide. Roughly one-fourth of those deaths are in the world’s #1 coronavirus hotspot: the United States, where the number of new coronavirus infections has been surging in Florida, Texas and other Sun Belt states. And that surge, according to Politico reporters Natasha Korecki and Marc Caputo, could pose a major threat to President Donald Trump’s reelection prospects.
“The explosion of COVID-19 cases in Sun Belt states is becoming another albatross for President Donald Trump’s reelection hopes — and creating a new opening for Joe Biden and Democrats in November,” Korecki and Caputo explain. “Republican governors in Florida, Arizona and Texas followed Trump’s lead by quickly reopening their states while taking a lax approach to social distancing and mask-wearing. Now, each of them is seeing skyrocketing coronavirus caseloads and rising hospitalizations…. It’s hard to overstate the gravity of the situation for Trump: lose any one of the three states, and his reelection is all but doomed.”
Former Vice President Biden, the presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, has been vehemently critical of Trump’s response to the pandemic — and the increase in new coronavirus infections in Sun Belt states, according to Korecki and Caputo, gives Biden even more political ammunition to use against Trump and the Republican Party.
“Liberal outside groups and the Biden campaign have launched digital and TV ads in Florida, Arizona and Texas, hitting Trump for allowing a second wave of coronavirus,” Korecki and Caputo report. “The developments have buttressed Biden’s main argument against Trump: that he’s incapable of bringing stability or healing in a time of crisis.”
Florida, Arizona and Texas are all states that Trump won in 2016. While Florida and Arizona are swing states, Texas is still a light red state — although a recent Fox News poll found Biden leading Trump by 1% in Texas, which is well within the margin of error but is still a shocker in light of the advantage that Republicans have had in the Lone Star State. Trump won Texas by 9% in 2016.
“Texas is a bedrock of Trump’s reelection, akin to California’s importance to Democrats,” Korecki and Caputo note. “The Lone Star State hasn’t been won by a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976, but polls show the competition between Trump and Biden for its 38 Electoral College votes is unexpectedly close.
Brendan Steinhauser, a conservative Texas-based political consultant, believes that Trump will carry Texas in November “but not by much.”
Florida, meanwhile, can be quite volatile politically. Although President Barack Obama won Florida in 2008 and 2012, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was unable to get past the finish line in Florida in 2016. And in 2018, Florida’s gubernatorial race was incredibly close: far-right Gov. Ron DeSantis defeated his liberal/progressive Democratic opponent, Andrew Gillum, by less than 1%.
Korecki and Caputo observe, “Of the three states, only Florida has been a true presidential swing state in recent decades. If Trump loses its 29 Electoral College votes, his chances of a second term are close to zero.”
Florida has been a swing state much longer than Arizona, which was considered a hardcore red state in the past and was closely identified with Sen. Barry Goldwater and his successor, Sen. John McCain (a self-described “Goldwater conservative”). If Democrat Mark Kelly defeats incumbent GOP Sen. Martha McSally in November, Arizona could end up with two Democratic U.S. senators (the other is centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who won in 2018). And polls have shown Biden narrowly leading Trump.
“Demographic change and the recent surge in COVID-19 cases have put Arizona and its 11 Electoral College votes up for grabs,” Korecki and Caputo write. “The last time a Democratic nominee carried the state was Bill Clinton in 1996.”
