Anti-MAGA momentum builds as Dems gain ground in crucial swing state

In recent decades, Democrats have had their share of disappointments in Wisconsin. Former President Barack Obama won Wisconsin twice, yet Republicans gained a lot of ground in the midwestern state during the Obama years. And President Donald Trump has had more victories than losses in Wisconsin, which he lost to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 but carried in 2016 and 2024.

With a Democratic governor (Tony Evers), a Democratic U.S. senator (Tammy Baldwin) and a hard-right GOP senator (Ron Johnson), Wisconsin is a volatile swing state that can go either red or blue. Liberals have a narrow 4-3 majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, although the justices are technically nonpartisan.

In an article published by the conservative website The Bulwark on March 25, Madison, Wisconsin-based journalist Bill Lueders lays some reasons why Democratic strategists are feeling increasingly optimistic about the state as the 2026 midterms draw closer.

"There's something happening here," Lueders explains. "What it is ain't exactly clear. But at least some observers are seeing signs that the pivotal swing state of Wisconsin is shifting from purple to blue. The upcoming April 7 election for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court is shaping up to be a blowout win for the liberal contender, which would make it the third consecutive high-court contest to go the liberals' way. This fall's race to replace two-term Democratic Gov. Tony Evers seems to have a lopsided level of energy, with more than a half-dozen serious contenders on the Democratic side —

to be narrowed to one in an August 11 primary — and just one serious contender among Republicans: Tom Tiffany, an acolyte of President Donald Trump currently serving in the U.S. House. And even given existing skewed electoral maps, the Dems have a fighting chance of flipping one or even two of the state's eight congressional seats, for which Republicans now enjoy a six-to-two advantage."

Lueders continues, "Moreover, in recent weeks, several prominent Republican lawmakers, including Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and State Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, have announced that they will not be seeking reelection this November."

Conservative Brandon Scholz, who formerly served as executive director of the Wisconsin Republican Party but is now an independent, predicts that Democrats will flip the Wisconsin State Senate in November. Presently, Republicans control both houses of the Wisconsin State Legislature: the Senate and the State Assembly.

Scholz, who left the GOP after the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol Building, told The Bulwark, "Certainly, if they lost the majority, it's natural that everybody looks at leadership and tries to blame somebody. Devin (LeMahieu) would be at the top of that list because he's the majority leader. He's the one that makes the decision, casts the votes, puts the bills up, raises the money…. The Wisconsin Republican Party is a skeleton of itself."