Why the 'biggest consequence' of the Iowa primary isn't in Iowa

While frontrunner Donald Trump appears to be on track to win the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has been outperforming Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as a second-place candidate in New Hampshire. And a Suffolk University poll released on January 11 found Haley in second place in Iowa as well.

If Haley outperforms DeSantis in the 2024 Iowa Caucuses and goes on to outperform him in New Hampshire, it will validate her supporters' view that she is the GOP's strongest alternative to Trump.

In a report published on January 15, the New York Times' Nate Cohn explains, "Any show of strength for Ms. Haley could be significant ahead of New Hampshire. She had already pulled to within striking distance of Mr. Trump there before Chris Christie withdrew from the race. Historically, primary polling is extremely volatile, and the candidates who surge late often keep surging."

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Cohn adds, "Ms. Haley might still need just about everything to go right, and a burst of favorable media coverage after Iowa would only help. If so — and no Iowan will want to hear this — the biggest consequence of Iowa might just be in New Hampshire."

The Times reporter stresses, however, that Trump, according to polls, is still way ahead of Haley in Iowa.

"Of course, even a Haley win in New Hampshire would still leave Mr. Trump as an overwhelming favorite to win the nomination," Cohn reports. "Her appeal is almost exclusively concentrated among highly educated and moderate Republicans and independents, who make up an outsize share of the New Hampshire electorate but will do very little for her elsewhere."

Cohn continues, "But with Mr. Trump's criminal trials still ahead, perhaps there is still a scenario, however remote, where second place in Iowa tonight turns out to matter more than we imagine today."

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Read the New York Times' full report at this link (subscription required).