The new 'bellwether' in American politics
When political scientists are trying to gauge the overall mood in U.S. politics, they typically look to volatile swing states like Pennsylvania as opposed to heavily Democratic states like California, Maryland and Massachusetts or GOP strongholds such as Alabama, Wyoming, Mississippi and Idaho.
Georgia used to be deep red, but in recent years, it has evolved into a swing state. In the 2022 midterms, Georgia's statewide victories ranged from Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger — both non-MAGA conservative Republicans — to liberal Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Former President Donald Trump won Georgia in 2016 but lost it to now-President Joe Biden in 2020, and Democratic strategists view the Peach State as a must-win for Biden in 2024.
In an article published by the conservative website The Bulwark on September 5, former federal prosecutor Dennis Aftergut lays out some reasons why Georgia has become the new "bellweather" in U.S. politics.
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Aftergut argues that Kemp's "willingness to separate himself from Trump" is a sign of trouble for Trump's 2024 campaign if he becomes the nominee. Kemp, the former prosecutor notes, wants no part of State Sen. Colton Moore's proposal to impeach Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. And Aftergut points out that distancing himself from Trump is not hurting Kemp politically.
"In a late June Morning Consult poll," Aftergut observes, "60 percent of the surveyed Georgians reported having a favorable view of Kemp, which is enviable in today's climate. A more recent poll, conducted for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in mid-August by the University of Georgia's Survey Research Center, reported that Georgians who 'somewhat' or 'strongly' approve of Kemp's job performance totaled a sky-high 80 percent."
These numbers, the former prosecutor stresses, show how politically complex Georgia has become.
"According to a June 2023 forecast from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics," Aftergut explains, "Georgia is one of only four swing states that will truly matter in 2024. For much of the last half century, it was to Ohio that political analysts looked for clues as to how a national election would go, much as Maine had been in an earlier era — leading to the now-outdated motto 'As goes Maine, so goes the nation.' Today, Georgia appears to have become one of the very few bellwether states."
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Read Dennis Aftergut's full article for The Bulwark at this link.
