Republicans are "at a crossroads" ahead of next year's midterm elections, per a new analysis by Roll Call, facing the prospects of two less-than-ideal outcomes, dragged down by a poor political environment for them, and resorting to excuses that are "things losing candidates say."
The GOP's midterm prospects have looked increasingly dire over the last few months, with President Donald Trump's approval ratings sinking fast over his handling of the economy and Democrats notching strong victories in the off-year elections. Writing for Roll Call, reporter Nathan L. Gonzalez predicted that the party is looking at two possible outcomes in 2026, with one more likely than the other: a "squeaker" or a "wipeout."
In the former case, Republicans would defy historical trends and Trump's political gravity and either win a few House seats or lose fewer than four to Democrats, which would mean they retain their majority in the chamber by a slim margin. Based "on the current trajectory," Gonzalez said that things are more "likely to get more difficult for Republicans."
"It’s clear that GOP strategists believe the current political environment is poor when a common refrain heard is 'There’s still time,'" Gonzalez wrote. "Not only should that be added to the list of 'Things Losing Candidates Say,' but there’s little evidence that time will help Republicans since the current trend line is working against them."
Based on the current generic ballot ratings, Democrats have a three-point lead over Republicans, which would indicate enough momentum and favorability to take the House majority. Factoring in their strong margins in the off-year elections and the general swing to the left even in races where they lost, Gonzalez suggested that their prospects could be even stronger.
"A similar overperformance in November would deliver the House to Democrats with plenty of seats to spare and put the Senate within reach," he wrote. "Republicans should win GOP-leaning states such as Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Alaska under normal political conditions. But if 2026 is extraordinary for Democrats, the elections could feel closer to 2018, 2010 or 2006 than to 2022."
In order for Republicans' midterm odds to improve, voter sentiment around Trump's presidency would need to recover, which is unlikely. Citing statistics from pollster Nate Silver, Gonzalez noted that Trump's approval rating has slipped by nine points since the start of his second term, down to around 43 percent. In 2018, when his approval rating was around 38 percent, Democrats won 41 House seats and took back the majority. Trump's overall approval continuously fell during his first term, indicating that it's unlikely his current fortunes will reverse.
