Trump betting that being jailed for contempt of court will help him get re-elected: analyst

Given his increasingly hostile social media posts, the multiple gag orders judges have imposed on former President Donald Trump don't appear to be having an effect. A columnist for a conservative publication is arguing that Trump may actually be hoping for legal consequences to manifest, as it could increase support from his base.

Following New York judge Arthur Engoron fining Trump on two separate occasions for violating his gag order, Trump tore into Engoron himself on his Truth Social platform, which has roughly six million followers. And in Washington, DC, after Judge Tanya Chutkan reinstated a gag order on the former president, Trump attacked his former Attorney General, Bill Barr, who is a potential witness in the January 6 case Chutkan is overseeing.

National Review columnist Henry Olsen — a senior fellow at a conservative think tank — wrote on Thursday that Trump's strategy may very well to be jailed for his comments and be seen as a martyr by his followers.

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"[A] man like Trump could rationally conclude that provoking the judges helps his reelection chances more than it hurts him in court. That is likely to be especially true with respect to Judge Chutkan, who is an Obama appointee who has already taken a tough line in sentencing January 6 defendants and hence is easier to paint as a partisan in judicial robes," Olsen wrote. "Imagine what the outcry from his team would be if Judge Chutkan confined him to Mar-a-Lago or even appointed an overseer of his social-media accounts to enforce her order."

Olsen's theory could indeed be exploited by the former president, given his past statements on the campaign trail. Trump's polling position has continued to rise despite facing 91 felony counts in three separate jurisdictions, and he continues to dismiss the prosecutions as politically motivated.

"I consider it a great badge of courage. I'm being indicted for you," Trump said in June. "I believe the 'you' is more than 200 million people that love our country that are out there, and they love our country. This is a continuation of the greatest witch hunt of all time."

According to Olsen, Trump deliberately provoking judges on social media, effectively daring them to jail him for contempt, tracks with his mercurial and chaotic demeanor.

READ MORE: 'Blatant and open loathing': Trump attacks Judge Chutkan after she re-imposes gag order

"The idea of a former president maneuvering himself into being disciplined by the court, or perhaps even jailed, for political advantage would have been laughably fantastic just a decade ago," he wrote. "In today’s Trump-dominated fun-house version of politics, it is depressingly likely."

Read Olsen's full column here.