MAGA facing 'tough political climate' — even in deep-red Trump district

After Democrats enjoyed a long list of victories in 2025's off-year elections on Tuesday, November 4 — from gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey to three Pennsylvania Supreme Court retention races — political analysts on CNN and MS NOW (formerly MSNBC) were quick to comment on the margins of their victories. Polls showed New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill with narrow leads over GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli; in the end, she defeated him by 14 percent.

The fact that Virginia and Pennsylvania are swing states and New Jersey is light blue (as opposed to deep blue like Massachusetts, Maryland or California) drew a lot of attention, and the races became largely a referendum of Donald Trump's second presidency and the far-right MAGA movement.

Now, almost a month after the November 4 races, a special U.S. House election in Tennessee's deep red 7th Congressional District is drawing close scrutiny because of how close it is in polls — which have found Republican Matt Van Epps narrowly leading Democrat Aftyn Behn, a state lawmaker.

In an article published on December 2, the Washington Post reports that Republicans are nervous about Van Epps' performance in polls — as he should have double-digit leads in a district that Trump carried by 22 percent in 2024.

Merica explains, "Republicans are looking to hang on to a ruby-red congressional district Tuesday in a surprisingly competitive special election that has become a high-profile test of voters' attitudes about President Donald Trump's agenda and Democrats' response less than a year before the midterm elections…. Strategists in both parties say they see a competitive race that tilts toward the Republican candidate as each side has flooded the district with money, ads and prominent surrogates not typically seen in such a partisan stronghold…. That national attention was evident on Monday, (December 1), with Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) campaigning for Republican Matt Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn hosting a virtual rally featuring Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) and former Vice President Al Gore."

Conservative Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tennessee) acknowledges that Van Epps is underperforming in polls given how Republican that district is.

Burchett told the Post, "It's fair to say this Republican is a little nervous. It's an off-year. It's a special election. It's around the holiday, and there's just a lot of things that could play into the Democrats' favor."

Republicans, Merica notes, are "spending millions of dollars trying to boost Van Epps across the finish line" — which, according to the Post reporter, shows that they are facing a "tough political climate."

"Tuesday's vote is shaping up as a final exam of sorts for both parties at the end of a tumultuous political year," Merica explains. "Trump's approval rating is in negative territory, polls show, leaving Republicans nervous about 2026. Democrats have been heartened by their electoral victories, but many remain troubled by polls showing that the public holds them in low regard."

If Van Epps wins but only by the single digits, political voices say, it would be an ominous sign for Republicans.

John G. Geer, a Vanderbilt University political scientist, told the Post, "It's interesting that Van Epps isn't in a strong enough position just to ignore her. That tells me they’re worried."

Read Dan Merica's full Washington Post article at this link (subscription required).