Since the 1980s, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville has been describing Pennsylvania as the consummate swing state. And that hasn't changed. Pennsylvania has a Democratic U.S. senator (John Fetterman), a Republican U.S. senator (Dave McCormick) and a moderate Democratic governor (Josh Shapiro) who is often mentioned as a possible 2028 presidential candidate.
President Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, lost it to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, and won it a second time in 2024. But Trump's victory over 2024 Democratic nominee Kamala Harris was a narrow single-digit in the Keystone State, with the economy — especially inflation — weighing heavily on voters' minds.
Trump's strong points in 2024 included Central Pennsylvania, jokingly calling "Pennsyltucky" by the state's residents, and the Lehigh Valley north of Philadelphia. But according to Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Alfred Lubrano, the Lehigh Valley is a warning sign for Republicans a year into Trump's second presidency.
"Trump's biggest gains in the state in 2024 were concentrated in the Lehigh Valley and in Northeastern Pennsylvania," Lubrano reports in an article published on January 22. "But a year into his second presidency, there are signs that his winning coalition is splintering. In interviews across five counties in the region, some voters shared their disappointment with rising grocery prices and what they see as Trump's failure to keep his commitments. Even while hailing some of Trump's policies, several Republicans interviewed said they were put off by his manner as well as his stance on key issues. That disillusionment could spell trouble for Pennsylvania Republicans as they look to hold onto two key swing congressional seats in this region in November."
Robert DeJesus, a retired construction worker and independent voter who lives in Allentown, is a prime example of the type of problems the GOP is facing in Pennsylvania.
DeJesus, an independent, expressed his frustration over the economy by voting for Trump in 2024. But now, he considers that vote a "big mistake."
DeJesus told the Philadelphia Inquirer, "The guy makes 'cookie promises.' They're easy made and easy broken…. People say it's good the price of gas went down under Trump. But how we have to live, with high food and high rent, makes no sense."
Diana Kird, a 58-year-old Republican and 2024 Trump voter in the Lehigh Valley, is frustrated as well.
Kird told the Inquirer, "I don't know what we’re doing in Venezuela…. We need to stop getting into foreign wars…. He's wash-rinse-repeat for me, saying the same things over again…. yet doing nothing."
Although Trump isn't on the ballot in the 2026 midterms, Lubrano reports, Kird "plans to take her frustration out on U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, the freshman Republican who won the Lehigh Valley seat by a single point."
According to Lubrano, "Mackenzie and fellow freshman U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan, a Republican who won his neighboring Northeastern Pennsylvania district by less than a point, are among the top targets for Democrats in November as the party hopes it can win back the House with a focus on affordability.
Alfred Lubrano's full article for the Philadelphia Inquirer is available at this link (subscription required).
