Democratic strategists are hoping that the 2026 midterms will be bring a major blue wave like the ones they enjoyed in 2018 during Donald Trump's first presidency and in 2006 when then-President George W. Bush was in office. And there were some hopeful signs for Democrats in November, including double-digit gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey and three landslide victories in Pennsylvania Supreme Court retention elections.
But it remains to be seen what will happen on Election Night 2026. According to Puck's Abby Livingston, "Republican leadership" is "bracing for a reckoning" as "Trump's deteriorating approval ratings push once-solidly-red districts into tossup territory."
During an interview with Livingston published in Q&A form on December 30, Jacob Rubashkin — deputy editor of Inside Elections — hesitated to predict a midterms blue wave, but he said that it's a strong possibility and noted that big surprises could happen in Texas and Michigan.
"Both parties often fall into the trap of thinking they have time to turn things around when, historically speaking, that's very difficult," Rubashkin told Livingston. "When things are going poorly, it's rare that they get better…. Trump continued to grow more unpopular. And when people are upset with the president, they take it out on his party. It's especially dangerous for Republicans at the moment because they've subsumed themselves pretty much entirely to Trump's will. There's no meaningful distinction between congressional Republicans and Trump at this point."
Rubashkin continued, "The worse Trump does, the more uncomfortable it's going to be for congressional Republicans. The one thing they thought could help is this massive nationwide redistricting push, which wouldn't change the political environment but would change the underlying math. And it's looking more and more like a wash."
The elections analyst, however, noted that while Democrats have a good shot at flipping the U.S. House of Representatives, they "still have a ways to go before they're positioned to flip the Senate."
"It's a really tough map for them," Rubashkin told Livingston. "2018 was a great example of a year that went incredibly well in the House and still fell short in the Senate because of the races at play. Obviously, there are differences. We're now talking about a tranche of states that's slightly more competitive: Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. But those are not easy states for Democrats. They still need small lucky bounces in each of them to put themselves in serious contention…. The Michigan Democratic Senate primary race has quietly gotten very interesting — nobody knows what's going to happen…. It's been a long time since we had a truly competitive Democratic Senate primary in a battleground state. Now, that could all come undone in Michigan in a three-way race."
Read Abby Livingston's full interview with Jacob Rubashkin for Puck News at this link (subscription required).
