Trump facing these 5 'warning signs' in 2026

After Donald Trump narrowly defeated then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the United States' 2024 presidential election, Democratic strategists spent months feeling demoralized. It was a close election — Trump won the national popular vote by roughly 1.5 percent — yet he made gains with Latinos, Generation Z, independents and swing voters and flipped six states that Joe Biden won in 2020: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin.

Moreover, Republicans retook Congress' upper chamber when three Democratic U.S. senators — Pennsylvania's Bob Casey Jr., Ohio's Sherrod Brown and Montana's Jon Tester — were voted out of office.

But a series of elections in November and December went well for Democrats, including double-digit victories in gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia and landslides in three Pennsylvania Supreme Court retention elections. And Eileen Higgins became the first Democrat to win a mayoral race in Miami in 30 years.

In a listicle published on the last day of 2025, The Hill's Julia Mueller lays out five takeaways from these Democratic victories.

"This year's elections offered early signs of what to expect in next year's midterms," Mueller explains. "After much of the country shifted rightward last year, Democrats got a much-needed shot in the arm with a string of impressive victories. The elections have also underscored some of President Trump's weaknesses as his party looks to hold onto both chambers of Congress next year."

Mueller's takeaways are: (1) "Democrats find their momentum," (2) "Economy sends warning signs for GOP," (3) "Redistricting is major wild card," (4) "Democrats are still divided," and (5) "2028 primary is already underway."

"The economy was the top issue for voters throughout the 2025 elections, serving as a warning sign for Trump and the GOP ahead of the midterms," Mueller observes. "Democrats' most high-profile 2025 winners put affordability and economic concerns at the center of their campaigns, while the president is logging some of his lowest economic approval ratings ever, recent polls show. Amid steep tariffs, high prices and cost-of-living issues, some Republicans have also raised concerns about Trump's approach to the issue of affordability, which he's dismissed in recent weeks as a Democratic 'con job.'"

Mueller adds, "Though Trump has said he'd give the economy an 'A-plus-plus-plus-plus' mark, polls suggest many Americans give him a failing grade on the issue and think he's losing the battle against inflation."

Although the 2026 midterms are only a little over 10 months away, Democratic and GOP strategists are already thinking about the 2028 presidential race.

"Leading Democrats are asserting themselves on the national stage, from visits in key early voting states to cross-country book tours, as they eye potential bids to become the party's next standard-bearer," Mueller notes. "California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has emerged as an early frontrunner, alongside a number of his fellow Democratic governors…. On the GOP side, Vice President Vance is widely viewed as an heir apparent to Trump, who has said the Constitution is 'pretty clear' that he could not seek a third term, despite rumors that he was considering the possibility."

Mueller continues, "But growing fissures in the MAGA base raise questions about who might take the reins of the president's movement in 2028. A little less than three years out, the next presidential election could be anyone's game."

Read Julia Mueller's first listicle for The Hill at this link.