'Red flags' as off-year election delivers 'clear warning' for GOP

With the 2026 midterm elections ten and one-half months away, GOP and Democratic strategists are carefully studying 2025's off-year elections in an effort to gauge what could lie ahead. And many of the elections haven't gone the GOP's way, from double-digit Democratic victories in gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia to three Democrats winning state supreme court retention elections in Pennsylvania — a crucial swing state that President Donald Trump narrowly won in 2016 and 2024 but lost in 2020.

On December 9, Eileen Higgins became the first Democrat to win a mayoral race in 30 years.

According to Axios, these elections are "clear midterms warning" for Republicans.

"Voters swung left in every major election this year since President Trump's return to power in January," Axios reporter Avery Lotz reports in an article published on December 17. "Why it matters: The off-cycle election results — combined with low approval ratings on Trump's handling of the economy — are red flags for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms. For Democrats, the leftward current provides a much-needed confidence boost."

Lotz adds, "The big picture: In key congressional and state-level races this year, voters moved sharply to the left compared to last year's presidential election. In some races, the pendulum swung by double digits."

The Axios reporter notes that although Republican Matt Van Epps won a U.S. House race in a deep-red Tennessee district, the margins are bad news for the GOP.

"Earlier this month, Trump-backed Republican Matt Van Epps defeated a progressive Democrat to represent a conservative Nashville-area district by nine points," Lotz explains. "That's a far narrower victory than Trump's 22-point win in the district last year. The narrower margin of victory also paralleled closer-than-expected results in Florida's special House elections earlier this year."

Lotz points out that Democrats will "frame" the 2026 midterms as a "referendum on" Trump's presidency.

"Last month, Democrats bagged big wins in Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and California. Democratic victories were anticipated," Lotz observes. "But the size of the trouncing — including double-digit wins in the Virginia and New Jersey governor's races — turned heads."

Read Avery Lotz's full article for Axios at this link.