President Donald Trump has grown accustomed to doing what he wants and then quickly improvising if things go south, says Axios.
But this time, some in his inner circle have what one official called "buyer's remorse" — growing fears that attacking Iran was a mistake.
Axios reports that a source close to the administration said some key officials around Trump were reluctant or wanted more time. "He ended up saying, 'I just want to do it,'" the source said. "He grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops."
The Axios source said Trump was "high on his own supply" after last summer's quick strikes in Iran and January's abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro: "He saw multiple decisive quick victories with extraordinary military competence."
Some officials close to him had hoped he'd be able to show some quick gains and declare victory, Axios states. Now, it's not apparent how he'd do that convincingly. “The Iran war, now entering Week 3, is the first time Trump’s style has made it impossible for him to easily talk or improvise his way out.”
What’s happening now is that Trump risks getting caught in an “escalation trap” as he works to free the oil jam in the Persian Gulf. The escalation trap is “where a stronger force is incentivized to keep attacking to demonstrate dominance amid diminishing returns.”
An anonymous Trump administration official laid it out for Axios reporter Marc Caputo: “The Iranians f——ing around with the Strait [of Hormuz] makes (Trump) more dug in.”
Pressure from Israel is also a factor in the escalation trap. Axios contends Trump has a history of being convinced by Benjamin Netanyahu to take his side. For the Iranians' part, survival is the key, and its retaliation proves “it can impose pain, militarily and economically, to scare off future attacks.”
Unlike tariffs that are easily yanked, the Iran war’s outcome “is beyond unilateral control and quick fixes. And Iran gets a say,” Axios states.
Axios notes that it’s fair to assume the Trump administration expected the conflict to run about 4 to 6 weeks. That timeline would make April 1 (day 33 of the war) “a real gut-check moment.”
There is no easy path out for Trump, Axios claims. “The Iranians have made it clear in private and in public that even if Trump decides to end the war, they could continue shooting missiles and rockets until they get guarantees that this is the end of the war, not just a temporary ceasefire.”
Trump faces new territory now, Axios says. He has to make a decision on a significant military escalation. He had hoped for some gains that would allow him to declare victory. But that’s not happening.