Amid his self-made national rancor, President Donald Trump is retreating to safe ground in Iowa. But this reliable red state today is providing little comfort.
“… [T]his time, the trip comes less as a victory lap than an attempt to reinvigorate voters in territory where Republicans are surprisingly playing defense,” reports Politico's Megan Messerly and Lisa Kashinsky.
Dan Naylor, chair of the Republican party in Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania, said the president needs to connect the dots for voters, for example, on why the U.S. captured a Venezuelan dictator and why he wants Greenland so badly.
“The average person is like, ‘What in the world is he doing all these crazy things for?’ and I think when he gets out on the trail, he’ll be able to define those issues a little bit better,” said Naylor.
The president is avoiding even potentially purple or bluish Iowa city centers and instead swinging through the Des Moines suburbs, however, visiting local businesses, meeting allied lawmakers and attempting to give speeches on the economy. Politico describes this as the “latest example of the White House deploying Trump to energize the GOP in districts he carried.”
“It reflects a bet that his physical presence, more than any specific policy message, will boost turnout among voters who showed up for him in 2024 but are less likely to vote in a midterm election where he’s not on the ballot,” Messerly and Kashinsky wrote.
“Trump’s visit comes amid a moment of growing political strain for the White House as Trump faces flagging poll numbers, persistent voter frustrations about the economy and mounting backlash over his immigration agenda, which has only grown after the shooting death of a protester in Minneapolis over the weekend,” they continued.
Even this could be a challenge, with Politico pointing to Trump’s recent history with mocking voters’ economic pain and calling it a Democratic “hoax.” But the stakes of losing what should be safe House districts “are high,” per the report.
The GOP majority in the House is “particularly narrow,” according to Messerly and Kashinsky. Losing that majority would upend Trump’s final two years in office, with Democrats likely to again pursue impeachment inquiries against him along with investigations over enriching himself and his family. Trump's refusal to follow U.S. law and release the entirety of the Epstein files last year could also complicate Trump's midterm hopes, and Democrats are eyeing two U.S. House districts in Iowa that Trump carried.
“Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks held onto her seat in 2024 by just 798 votes, despite Trump winning the district by roughly 8 points, a mismatch that has made Iowa a quiet focus of early Democratic recruitment and Republican defensive planning,” Politico reported, adding that Democrats are already preparing to weaponize Trump’s presence Miller-Meeks and other Republicans like Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running to replace outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa).
Additionally, Democrats have repeatedly targeted the seat of Republican Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), who won his seat by only 3.9 points in 2024.
While Trump hopes to drum up midterm indifference among MAGA and Republican voters, Democrats are hoping to use the president’s unpopularity as an overweight albatross to weigh down his team.
“The reality is that we are here in Iowa, where we’re seeing the effects of Trump’s policies, and it’s not been positive,” Iowa Democratic Party chair Rita Hart, told Politico, while citing high health care premiums and groceries as a result of Republican policies and law. “What are these Republicans going to do about all these ways that people are struggling here in Iowa?”
