Trump just threatened to commit a crime — and nobody stopped him

On March 21, at 7:44 pm, Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Iran didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. He posted his threat on social media (so transparent! so strong!), promising that if Iran didn’t open the Strait “within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time,” the U.S. “will hit and obliterate” their power plants. And, because the world is his subordinate, he thanked it for its attention to this matter.

Iran relies on 130 thermal plants across the country for more than 95% of its electricity. Targeting all those plants would be a war crime. (This is my own legal opinion so I’m skipping the favored punt, “likely,” as in, it would likely be a war crime. Those lawyers are likely afraid of being sued; this one likely is not.) Intentionally bombing any non-military infrastructure essential to the survival of civilians, like power plants, is a violation of international humanitarian law.

Why? Because when power plants collapse, water pumping and desalination stations stop functioning. With no water, civilians die from dehydration and organ failure, some within days, some within hours. Children and the elderly die first. When hospitals lose power, life-support machines shut down, and surgeries are cancelled. Food production and distribution also collapse without power. Amnesty International observed that, “By threatening such strikes, (Trump was) effectively indicating willingness to plunge an entire country into darkness, and to potentially deprive its people of their human rights to life, water, food, healthcare and adequate standard of living, and to subject them to severe pain and suffering.”

TACO, anyone?

Instead of immediately capitulating, Iran was immediately defiant and threatened war crimes of its own, again against energy and desalination facilities. It’s like watching a cage match of hairy fisted cavemen, only with forced audience participation. We’re paying $8 billion a week for Trump’s war instead of subsidizing healthcare, but we’re getting off relatively easy: Iranians are getting bombed and their children are dying.

Iran told Trump to pound sand and raised him one, promising to close the Strait completely if Trump carried out his threats. Just when the barrel he’d voluntarily jumped into was about to go over Niagara Falls, Trump jumped out. He announced that the U.S. and Iran had suddenly engaged in “constructive” talks and that he was, therefore “pausing” his 48 hour ultimatum.

While Trump managed to save face for now, Iran said there were no such talks, and vehemently denied his claim. Their foreign ministry said there had been “no direct or indirect contact” with Washington whatsoever. So either Trump fabricated an off ramp from his own jump, or the talks are so secret only Jared Kushner knows about them. Trump didn’t say who was doing the talking (strategic ambiguity? or obviously lying?). Perhaps Trump and Jared are sending “constructive” texts to each other.

The war will go on, even if Trump withdraws

In front of audiences that don’t ask hard questions, Trump has repeatedly claimed that the war is “already won” and “very complete.” He told Fox News that he would end the conflict in Iran whenever the hell he felt like it. “It’ll end,” Trump said, when “I feel it in my bones.”

Someone in Trump’s orbit must have figured out by now that Iranians have bones too. The U.S. can’t unilaterally stop Iran from attacking Israel, U.S. assets or the Gulf states. After Trump intentionally alienated allies and started a war without consulting them, the U.S. and Israel stand alone. Even if the U.S. withdraws altogether, Iran is now issuing demands including massive reparations.

Multiple analysts report that Iran is better positioned for a protracted war on its own terrain than the U.S. will ever be. Even though the U.S. enjoys overwhelming conventional military superiority, a protracted conflict would favor Iran’s “asymmetric strategies” including proxy militias, drone swarms, and missile attacks.

Trump made Israel’s problem America’s problem

Just before the bombing started, it looked as if U.S. and Iranian negotiators might have struck a deal. Oman's Foreign Minister, Badr al-Busaidi, acting as a mediator in the talks, reported a potential breakthrough on Feb. 27. He announced that Iran was willing to stop stockpiling uranium, and that a deal on inspections was “within reach.” Unlike his fabricated ‘constructive’ talks, Trump didn’t give the real negotiations 5 days but instead started bombing the next day, on February 28.

Israel had lobbied for US military action against Iran for decades, claiming Iran posed an existential threat to Israel, but other presidents could not be persuaded. Presidents Bush and Obama routinely rejected Israel’s requests because they wanted to avoid another unpredictable Middle Eastern conflict that would exacerbate regional destabilization and bring high U.S. casualties.

Both presidents opted for diplomatic solutions instead. Under the JCPOA, which Trump killed, Iran agreed to constrain its nuclear program by limiting its fuel cycle activities and the production of weapons-grade uranium or plutonium. Iran also agreed to unannounced inspections. But in 2018, Trump pulled the U.S. out of the JCPOA, claiming not that Iran had violated it, but that it was a ‘bad deal.’ Trump argued that the deal's expiration dates or ‘sunset dates’ on some restrictions could eventually lead Iran down a "legitimate" path to a nuclear weapon. Sounds familiar. Also sounds like he killed the deal, and we are at war for Trump’s ego, because it was an Obama achievement.

No one knows where, when, or how this war will end, least of all Trump. In war, nothing is ever certain. But I feel confident I can offer at least this one guarantee: Whatever happens, no matter how many more Americans, Iranians, and others die, Fox News will declare Trump victorious, and 38% of the nation will blindly celebrate him as a hero for it.

Sabrina Haake is a columnist and 25+ year federal trial attorney specializing in 1st and 14th A defense. She writes the free Substack, The Haake Take.