Swing House district seen as a bellwether for 2024 will be decided by these 2 factors: expert

Control of the House of Representatives will likely come down to a handful of contested seats, and one military-heavy congressional district that could play a decisive role in determining the next House speaker is especially hard-fought.

The Washington Post reported that in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, in which Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal is running against Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia), the winner will likely be determined by a razor-thin margin at the very last minute. FiveThirtyEight's aggregated polling data shows that Cotter Smasal is within the margin of error, and the district is increasingly being seen as a bellwether for the 2024 election at large given that it will be among the first races to have a winner announced next Tuesday.

The district was previously represented by Democrat Elaine Luria after she defeated the Republican incumbent, before Kiggans unseated Luria in 2022. And while former Democratic Governor Ralph Northam won the district in 2017, Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin won a majority of the 2nd district's voters in 2021. It's also a swing district in presidential elections, as former President Donald Trump took the 2nd district in 2016, while President Joe Biden won it in 2020.

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Sojo Akomolafe, who is the chair of the political science department at Norfolk State University, said VA-2 is "the quintessential definition of a swing district." And he opined that the eventual winner would be determined by two factors: Voter enthusiasm and Black voter turnout.

"It’s not depending on the party but on who the candidate is, how vibrant that candidate is," Akomolafe said. "That means, until the very last minute, you’re not sure who’s going to win it."

Kiggans has sought to keep her reelection campaign focused on bread-and-butter issues, like local infrastructure projects and strengthening the Department of Veterans Affairs, given the strong military presence in the district. However, Cotter Smasal has painted her as a MAGA extremist, given Kiggans' appearance at a Trump rally in Virginia and her kind words for Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene, whom she called "so kind" and saying that both she and Greene "want the same thing." Kiggans also recently campaigned with Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the far-right firebrand who chairs the House Judiciary Committee and scheduled multiple hearings concerning allegations about Biden and his son, Hunter, that ultimately failed to yield articles of impeachment or a criminal referral to the Department of Justice.

Like the presidential election, abortion could end up being a decisive issue in the VA-2 race. Cotter Smasal has campaigned hard on restoring the abortion rights that were gutted in 2022 when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Cindy Arnold, a Virginia Beach resident the Post identified as a "former Republican," supports Cotter Smasal largely due to that issue.

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"Abortion is a big issue — I have granddaughters," Arnold said. "And just — character. Able to do the job and know about reality. If she can’t say who won the last presidential election, I’m sorry. Years ago I probably would have split tickets, but I don’t think that’s possible these days."

Meanwhile, Cotter Smasal sought to shore up Black turnout by campaigning alongside House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York). During their joint appearance, Cotter Smasal said that if Democrats took back the House, she would be eager to cast her vote for Jeffries as speaker, noting that he would be the first Black Speaker of the House in U.S. history.

Click here to read the Post's report in its entirety (subscription required).

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