Trump's top plan faces reality check as data guru shows it won't likely gain traction

President Donald Trump is likely anticipating a “rally around the flag” boost in his approval rating as a result of his recently-declared war against Iran — but he is not likely to get it, one expert recently explained.

“Trump is getting no rally-around-the-flag bounce — and probably never will,”

journalist and polling analyst G. Elliott Morris explained for his Substack on Thursday. “Presidents historically see approval bumps after military crises. Bush Sr. got a 29-point bounce from the Gulf War. FDR got nearly 20 points after Pearl Harbor. Bush Jr. gained after both Afghanistan and Iraq. But Trump’s approval is stuck at 39 - 40 percent, completely unchanged since the U.S. struck Iran on February 28.”

Morris pointed out that presidents need several conditions for a “rally” to occur. First, there must be a dramatic shock or attack on the homeland, such as the Pearl Harbor or September 11th terrorist attacks. Additionally, there needs to be a preexisting and effective movement among “elites” to convince the public that war is necessary. Alongside this the media needs to confirm the elites’ narrative. Finally the war must appear legitimate, which is not the case here because Trump never received congressional authorization.

“Rising gas prices will likely make the reaction to Iran worse,” Morris said. “A viewer asked whether rising gas prices from the Iran war would further erode public support. Short answer: yes. Trump was elected on two promises — lower prices and ending foreign wars — and this war violates both.”

He added, “Gas is already up about a dollar, and trade disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of global trade flows) will push grocery prices up too. About 80-85% of hardcore MAGA voters still back the war, but independents and soft Republicans who lent Trump their votes for economic relief are the ones most likely to peel off.”

Steve Schmidt, a Republican political strategist who advised President George W. Bush during his own unpopular Middle Eastern war, wrote on his Substack earlier this week that Trump’s war is “wretched.”

“Trust is a rare commodity in our wretched times,” Schmidt argued. “These are the days of corruption, self-dealing, incompetence and faithlessness to the Constitution.”

Using the epithet “tiny men and women” to refer to Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Schmidt argued none of them are demonstrating any kind of aptitude to prosecute a war.

“We deserve to know,” Schmidt argued. “There is no plan. There is no strategy. There is only incoherence. There is only incompetence.”

Jonathan V. Last, a conservative commentator for The Bulwark, similarly denounced Trump’s Iran war build-up.

“The American military is now telling the New York Times that, far from collapsing, the Iranian regime is adapting to the Israeli–American onslaught and finding our weaknesses,” Last argued.

He later added, “How is it possible that the people in charge of running America’s war—by which I mean the commander-in-chief and his secretary of defense—could have misunderestimated Iran so completely?”