Arizona latest battleground state in play as abortion access lands on ballot
Could Democrats take Arizona in November? An abortion ballot initiative may help.
In 2020 President Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in the state by a sliver, just 10,457 votes, after Trump in 2016 won the Grand Canyon State by a huge margin, beating Hillary Clinton by more than 1.1 million votes. Republican Mitt Romney beat President Barack Obama in 2012 by more than 200,000 votes, and Republican U.S. Senator John McCain beat Obama in 2008 by nearly 200,000 votes.
But some political experts say the state is once again in play. Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Governor Tim Walz, just had their chances improved after the Arizona Secretary of State, Democrat Adrian Fontes, certified a ballot initiative late Monday that seeks to put the right to abortion into the state’s constitution.
NBC News reports, “organizers shattered the record for the number of valid signatures gathered for a ballot initiative in the state,” a good sign it could pass, and a good sign it will draw voters to the polls. “Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, New York and South Dakota will have ballot measures to protect or expand abortion rights, and efforts are underway in four other states.”
The Lincoln Project’s Rick Wilson, a conservative political strategist and former Republican, told MSNBC’s Johnathan Capehart this weekend (video below), “The map has expanded for the Democrats. Kamala Harris has managed to expand the map and reactivate some places where it was looking grim. If Georgia is in play, and Nevada and Arizona and North Carolina are in play, then Donald Trump has to spread his resources even more thinly.”
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“There are even some weird hints, I’m not saying t5i yet, but right now with Vice President Harris up 15 points on Donald Trump in Dade County in Miami, that is a big deal.”
“All the flow is running to her direction,” Wilson added. “All the momentum in this campaign right now is with Vice President Harris, Governor Walz, and the Democratic candidates across the country. We’re seeing not only are the numbers holding up so far. We may have bad days ahead we may have good days ahead, but we’re also seeing Democratic state-wide officials open up bigger and bigger leads, such as in Arizona, where [U.S. Rep.] Ruben Gallego is now meaningfully ahead of ‘crazy Kari [Lake].'”
If the numbers continue to hold up, “Donald Trump is in real trouble. He doesn’t have anywhere to go and nowhere to grow. His base is even cracking a little bit around the edges in some states, like Florida, and he’s very worried, and I wouldn’t blame him for being very worried.”
Capehart noted The Cook Political Report moved Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from “lean Republican” to “toss up.”
“Democrats could still lose Arizona,” noted NewsNation political analyst Chris Stirewalt, “but the state is at least in play. You couldn’t say the same just a month ago.”
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Meanwhile, the FiveThirtyEight polling average now has Harris squeaking ahead of Trump.
On Saturday, Harris and Walz campaigned in Arizona, to a tremendous and enthusiastic crowd. During that speech Harris talked about “the freedom of a woman to make decisions about her own body,” before blasting Trump for hand-picking three U.S Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade.
