President Donald Trump’s own base is ruining one of his biggest plans, according to a conservative commentator — namely, his potential desire to anoint Secretary of State Marco Rubio as his successor instead of Vice President JD Vance.

“We begin with two quotes. They won’t seem related, but they are,” wrote Nick Catoggio of The Dispatch on Tuesday. “The first: ‘I would not support the Republican Party. There’s no chance I would support the Republican Party…. How could I or any American voter support a political party that’s not loyal to the United States, that puts the interests of a foreign country above those of its own citizens?... I’ve voted Republican my entire life … [but] I’m out. And if I’m out, then I think a lot of other people are out.’”

The first quote came from conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, Catoggio said, and the second quote — “Cubans love gold.” — came from Trump. He added that the context, as gleaned from a recent book by New York Times reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, was Trump refusing to remove the gilded updates to the Oval Office decor in case he is succeeded as president by Rubio.

“Tucker’s quote speaks for itself and will be received warmly on both ends of the American right,” Catoggio added. “To postliberals, isolationists, Israel obsessives, and other creatures who inhabit the GOP’s chud wing, it’s a righteous cri de coeur against the White House’s foolish war in Iran. To classical liberals, hawks, Israel supporters, and the rest of what remains of the party’s negligible conservative faction, it’s a long-overdue matter of ‘good riddance.’”

Yet despite Trump seemingly wanting Rubio to succeed him, Catoggio doubts that this will manifest as easily as he wants. Carlson’s recent defection from the Republican Party over his war against Iran speaks to a possible future in which the party base does not automatically do the president’s bidding.

“A right-wing base that trends toward Tuckerism in the aftermath of our national embarrassment will come to appreciate Vance as an avatar of peace,” Catoggio opined. “He doesn’t start silly, self-defeating wars. He gets America out of them.”

He added, “That's what a winning wager looks like for the veep. Whereas a losing wager looks like this: Republican voters decide that the fatal mistake with Iran was failing to ‘finish the job’ by using military force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Doves like Vance are schmucks twice over, they come to believe, having first discouraged Trump from prosecuting the war to an honorable end and later selling him on a deal that will shower billions of dollars on a terrorist regime.”

Catoggio continued, “The vice president isn’t an avatar of peace in this view; he’s an avatar of American humiliation. The United States needs a leader who isn’t afraid to use military power and who’ll prioritize victory once he chooses to do so: If that’s where GOP opinion lands when the Iran smoke clears—and given the right’s faith in ‘toughness’ and ‘strength,’ it’s more likely than not—then Rubio will be the obvious beneficiary.”

Breaking down prevailing sentiments within the Republican Party, however, Catoggio concluded that Vance’s bet is the better one.

“Vance is more likely to unite the right than Rubio is,” Catoggio wrote. “It will be easier for the vice president to persuade skeptical right-wing hawks to turn out for him in a general election, I think, than it will be for the secretary of state to persuade skeptical Lindberghians to do so.”

He added, “The sort of rank-and-file Republican partisan who defaults toward hawkishness and who might resent Vance for the Iran deal will nonetheless faithfully prioritize tribal victory over Democrats in 2028. No amount of Trump blather in 2024 about ‘warmongering’ by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will disabuse the American right of its atavistic fear that a foreign policy led by leftists will be dangerously weak relative to whatever’s on offer from the GOP.”

Ultimately, though, Catoggio doubted whether Rubio’s proximity to Trump will be an asset in a general election.

“I still wouldn’t bet on a Cuban American in the Oval Office in 2029, though,” Catoggio wrote. “The inevitable trajectory of the president’s final two and a half years in office will leave the electorate hungry for change, and ‘Donald Trump’s secretary of state’ isn’t very change-y. But if you’re trying to envision a Rubio administration, I’ve given you the path. All it’ll take is deep, lasting disillusionment with postliberalism in government and right-wing infotainment by a party rank-and-file that’s spent 10 years being indoctrinated into an authoritarian cult. Good luck, Marco.”

An extensive passage from an upcoming book exposing the inner workings of the second Trump administration has leaked to Axios, and it once again shows his proclivity for pitting his would-be MAGA successors against each other.

Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, veteran New York Times reporters who have extensively covered Trump's time in politics, are set to release a new book next week, Regime Change, chronicling the chaotic goings-on behind the scenes of his return to the White House. So far, early previews for the book have already caused major headaches for the administration, exposing the panicked reaction of top officials to the Epstein crisis while Trump tried to bury it.

The latest glimpse of the book has leaked to Axios, and features a description of a private dinner at which Trump asked NewsCorp tycoon Rupert Murdoch what he thought about Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as potential 2028 nominees for president. Trump has reportedly been known to ask attendees at private gatherings similar questions, and is also said to relish pitting his allies against each other.

According to Axios, Murdoch's reaction was far from encouraging for the vice president, as he now weighs whether or not to even bother running in 2028.

"In a scene from the forthcoming 'Regime Change,' President Trump asks a guest at a private dinner last year to compare Vice President Vance to Secretary of State Marco Rubio," Axios detailed. "Trump often does that to stir the pot on 2028 speculation. But this time, the judge was Rupert Murdoch. And with Vance and Rubio sitting awkwardly at the table, Murdoch was notably more effusive about Rubio. The media mogul had privately tried to talk Trump out of choosing Vance as his running mate in 2024."

The report continued later: "Trump's parlor game — recounted in a 3,000-word passage in 'Regime Change,' by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, out next Tuesday — shows that Vance, as the authors write, can be sure Trump won't 'make it easy for him' to get the 2028 GOP nomination."

According to the leaked passage, when Trump pressed Murdoch about Vance at the dinner, held in October of 2025, he said, "Well... I think JD has the potential to be great." When pressed about Rubio, he was much more effusive: "Marco is brilliant." Guests present at the dinner supposedly "would talk privately about the moment for weeks after the dinner."

Whoever attempts to follow President Donald Trump as the de facto leader of the Republican Party and the MAGA movement has a remarkably tough challenge ahead of them, but according to the conservative Washington Examiner paper, the most favored successor has such a tough "high-wire act" on their hands that it might just be "impossible."

Despite tough headwinds and historic unpopularity, Vice President JD Vance remains the nominal favorite to succeed Trump as the 2028 GOP nominee for president. In a new piece from Thursday, the Examiner argued that his heavily expected White House bid presents such an impossible mission that it would leave Tom Cruise stumped.

The outlet, noted for its strong conservative bent, highlighted recent reports suggesting that the prospect of actually carrying out a campaign has Vance "reconsidering" a 2028 run. A "close look at the obstacles ahead reveals why it’s not crazy" for the vice president to be thinking about this, as "getting to the swearing-in ceremony will require a political high-wire act for the ages."

"Consider Step 1: Vance must embrace a president who, as Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) learned the hard way, still runs the Republican Party, while not losing his New Right base that deplores that president’s war in Iran," the Examiner explained. "Recent polling underscores the challenge. The vice president has been hovering in the 30-40 percent range for the GOP nomination in recent months, down from highs in the 60s in 2025. That base is likely composed of New Right populists who see Vance as their champion and MAGA loyalists who’ve transferred their allegiance to him as Trump’s natural successor. Traditional conservatives and libertarians, meanwhile, appear likely to oppose him."

To manage this, Vance would need to balance unshaking loyalty to Trump while also trying to appease a portion of the GOP coalition that is sick of his war, and his chaos overall. Trump is famously unable to stomach any amount of criticism and might rescind any support from Vance in the face of any from him, while other candidates will be able to "gleefully paint any ambiguity on Iran as proof that Vance is in cahoots with Israel."

"Vance will need to perform the same balancing act on the economy," the outlet continued. "Trump will expect his second-in-command to parrot his boasts about 'the hottest country in the world.' But the New Right’s grievances about Trump’s focus on global issues at the expense of the homeland won’t simply disappear. Trump’s economy has yet to produce a manufacturing renaissance or reduce the cost of living, and gas prices have soared as a result of the war. Unless the economy starts humming in a major way, this will be another wire Vance has to walk in heels."

The Examiner ultimately concluded that Vance might opt to sit out the White House battle for at least a little while, to get distance from this nightmarish political gauntlet.

"But the combination of Vance’s youth and the sheer complexity of the mission might convince him to hold off a cycle or two," the report added. "In 2032 or 2036, Vance could run on his own terms, advancing his own vision free of Trump’s baggage and without losing any of the gravitas that comes with being a former vice president."

President Donald Trump is reportedly cultivating tension between two of his top officials, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as he tantalizes each with the prospect of being the Republican nominee in 2028.

“Every now and then, while talking to officials in the Oval Office, with friends over dinner, or on the patio at Mar a Lago, President Trump pauses and muses aloud about a subject quietly captivating the Republican Party,” The New York Times reported on Sunday. “What do you think? JD or Marco?”

The Times cited multiple sources close to Trump as saying the president frequently asks advisers if they would prefer either Vance or Rubio to succeed him. After receiving their various responses, he will then reportedly speculate that Vance and Rubio should run together in 2028.

“Mr. Trump’s advisers say he is simply having fun polling people, and that 2028 is not at the top of his mind at all,” the Times added. “Still, it would be hard for Mr. Trump to ignore that lately, the two men he refers to as ‘kids’ are taking on bigger profiles as the midterm elections approach.”

The Times added that both public polls and anecdotal evidence suggests that between Vance and Rubio, Vance would have the clear edge. In addition to being far more popular among primary voters than Rubio, Vance has even received an indirect endorsement from the Secretary of State himself. Speaking to Vanity Fair last year, Rubio said that “if JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.”

“He is unpopular, with an approval rating sitting at 35 percent in the most recent Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll,” the Times reported. “But according to a Pew survey taken earlier this year, Mr. Vance is a far more recognizable figure to American voters than most other Trump administration figures — only Mr. Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Health and Human Services secretary, are better known.”

The newspaper added, “According to Pew, 75 percent of Republican voters have favorable views of Mr. Vance, compared with 64 percent who have favorable views of Mr. Rubio. And 19 percent of Republican voters have never heard of the secretary of state.”

Reports of Trump playing Vance against Rubio precede the recent Times report. In March Trump reportedly played a “game” with the two men about who would follow him in power.

“The 2028 election is more than 2½ years away, but it is very much on Trump’s mind, as he casts about for a suitable heir to his MAGA empire,” The Wall Street Journal wrote at the time. “For months, the president has privately polled advisers, donors and friends about the political strengths and weaknesses of his vice president and secretary of state, pitting the two young, ambitious Republicans against each other—whether they like it or not.”

The Journal continued, “Less than a day after the U.S. began bombing Iran, President Trump met with two dozen donors at his Mar-a-Lago club. As attendees dined on jumbo crab and rib-eye steaks, Trump asked the crowd: What do you think of JD Vance and Marco Rubio? The guests applauded louder for Rubio, according to people in the room.”

The MAGA movement will have a pivotal decision to make about its future leader in the 2028 presidential primary, but while many are eager to move beyond the era of President Donald Trump, a new analysis from The Hill argued that his chaos and unwillingness to cede power will "engulf" the process nonetheless.

Writing in a piece published Friday, Myra Adams, a columnist for The Hill with experience working on past GOP presidential campaigns, suggested that Trump will be "the most vocal, intrusive lame-duck president in history" once the race to crown a 2028 GOP nominee begins in the wake of this year's midterms. She also argued that, this deep into Trump's domination of the party, he will continue to dominate the conversation about the race, even if he cannot legally enter it himself.

"When the 2028 Republican National Convention takes place, 16 years will have passed since the party nominated someone other than Trump, Adams wrote. "In this new era, the measure for Republican candidates is whether they support or oppose Trump. Therefore, the president’s name and associated chaos engulf the virtual scorecards."

Citing a poll from RealClearPolitics, Adams said that Vice President JD Vance remains the "clear frontrunner" for the nomination, despite his persistent unpopularity. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also been floated by many as a clear contender for the crown in 2028, with Trump said to be asking those close to him if they prefer him or the vice president as he considers his endorsement plans.

Adams argued further that Trump endorsing a candidate early could alleviate any chaos or uncertainty, but that remains far from a guarantee.

"When assessing Vance’s chances of winning the nomination, a key factor is whether Trump will have endorsed his vice president by this time next year," Adams explained. "Such an early thumb on the scale could prevent any serious primary competition, saving donors and the party tens of millions of dollars by avoiding contested primaries in multiple states. Alternatively, if Trump adopts the 'see what happens' or 'let the voters decide' approach, it will indicate that Vance is on his own — cue the chaos."

Adams also suggested that Vance could "blow up" the preconceptions of the race if he and the rest of the Cabinet invoked the 25th Amendment to remove him from office, given his stagnating popularity, commitment to the unpopular Iran war and the persistent concerns about his declining health. That would give him the edge as the incumbent president going into 2028. Rubio is also rumored to be seeking an exit from his position after the midterms in order "to make some real money before he runs for president" which might give him more of an edge by getting distance from Trump's mess.

"Today, Trump’s two main successors are quietly running," Adams concluded. "Chaos will influence who wins the nomination."

President Donald Trump boasts one quality above all others, according to a prominent New York Times columnist, that has made him much harder to beat than a typical politician — but also makes him "impossible" for Republicans to replace.

On Tuesday, the Times released a new video featuring Jamelle Bouie, an outspoken political commentator and one of the publication's most notable liberal columnists, appearing as a guest for its podcast, "The Opinions." In the clip, Bouie suggested that many people in politics have underestimated one specific quality about Trump that has crafted a "unique coalition" around him that has been difficult to break: his "celebrity charisma."

"I think people understate the importance of Trump’s kind of celebrity charisma," Bouie explained. "The thing that has delivered him victories or near-victories in presidential elections is that he can turn out loosely attached voters, people who otherwise would not be voting and who, critically, in some cases, don’t even vote down ballot. They just vote for Trump. And in doing so, they’ve delivered him these very narrow victories. And I tie that explicitly to the fact that he’s a celebrity first and foremost to many, many Americans."

Much has been made of Trump's unique ability to drive "low-propensity voters" to the polls during presidential elections, where he is on the ballot. Conversely, this has caused trouble for the GOP during off-year and midterm elections, where higher propensity Democrats have tended to overperform expectations while Trump's coalition stays home, even as he has endorsed a wide range of candidates. As a result, many in the GOP are feeling a looming sense of existential dread about the prospect of voter turnout once Trump can no longer legally run for president.

Speaking further, Bouie argued that this sense of Trump being a "celebrity" has also helped him evade the consequences of his own actions, with his supporters simply not believing the bad things he has said and done.

"They don’t register or read him as a Republican," he continued. "Which does two things. First, it’s hard to convince voters that he’ll do things that Republicans do that they don’t like. You can say, 'He’s going to cut taxes for rich people.' He may have already done it, but precisely because he’s not associated with the Republican Party in this intimate way, a lot of voters say, 'Oh, well, you know, is he really? He signed the checks. Is he really going to be that bad?'”

Going forward, Bouie suggested that this issue is very much going to make life difficult for future Republican presidential hopefuls.

"So I think there’s no other Republican politician who has that, who had this decades-long, pre-political career where they essentially became a byword for wealth," he concluded. "Trump was associated with wealth and pop culture. That doesn’t exist for anyone else. And I’m very skeptical that any of the people who seem to be presidential contenders have the ability to reconstitute or pull together anything like the Trump coalition."

One of the most dangerous power players in the U.S. Supreme Court is at it again, wrote the New York Times in a report about the conservative Justice Samuel Alito.

Alito recalled in his youth his father tapping away on a calculator, trying to redraw electoral maps. All of that came to a head on Tuesday when Alito penned the landmark decision that struck another harmful blow to the Voting Rights Act. The decision ultimately makes it more difficult to bring racial discrimination challenges to districts.

But the end of Alito's career is leaving questions about whether he will retire, allowing President Donald Trump to appoint another far-right justice to stack the courts. According to those close to Alito, he has no desire to retire. But if Democrats take over Congress in the 2026 midterms, there could be a renewed call.

"People who know him say that he may not want to jeopardize the chance to have a successor who aligns with his ideology, and that he is mindful of what unfolded when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died in September 2020," the report said. "Her death set off a confirmation scramble that allowed Mr. Trump to appoint her successor, the conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett, shifting the makeup of the court."

While Alito was quiet in 2024, the past year brought more of his opinions to the bench. It appears Chief Justice John Roberts has assigned decisions for Alito to author when the court intends to hand Trump a "win," said Stanford law school professor Pamela Karlan.

“It’s hard to think of an area where Justice Alito’s views do not align completely with the conservative legal movement,” she added.

In his opinions on the Voting Rights Act and anything to do with race relations, the Times explained that those appearing before him "will have to provide evidence of intentional race discrimination to prevail. The ruling prompted a Republican scramble to redistrict across the South, and likely handed the GOP an edge ahead of the midterm elections."

Alito, a constitutional law professor at Yale, Akhil Reed Amar said it's simply that Alito has greater seniority on the court and his outsized role is easily explained by that.

“It’s a seniority system, and you don’t get the plum assignments in your early years,” Professor Amar said. “The longer you’re around, the more you get to write opinions in big cases.”

Those close to Alito maintain that he remains engaged with the court, despite checking out a day early for their summer break.