Trump’s GOP challengers can expect a serious 'reality check' in the months ahead: analysis

Despite the fact that he is facing four criminal indictments and a variety of civil lawsuits, Donald Trump remains the clear frontrunner in the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Polls released in mid-October find Trump leading the second-place candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by 40 percent (Yahoo News) or 45 percent (Morning Consult).

The Daily Beast's Jake Lahut examines the state of the primary in an article published on October 19, offering some reasons why other Republicans are still in the race despite Trump's dominance.

"Despite growing pressure from big donors for candidates to drop out ahead of the third debate on November 8," Lahut explains, "there are still 10 legitimate GOP presidential candidates in the field. Each one is at least 40 points behind the former president in most polls. Meanwhile, just two longshots, former Rep. Will Hurd and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, have decided to bow out. The rest are still running in a primary they have convinced themselves is competitive."

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GOP consultant Jim Merrill predicts that more candidates will throw in the towel this fall, telling the Daily Beast, "There's gonna be a lot of pressure over the next six weeks for these campaigns to do a reality check."

Merrill believes that by January 2024, the GOP presidential field will be "no more than four" — and those four, he predicts, will be Trump, DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina).

New Hampshire State Rep. Wayne MacDonald, a Republican, argues that it's way too soon to assume that "it's all over" and that a Trump nomination is inevitable.

MacDonald told the Beast that Trump's support is "much softer than anyone realizes."

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Read the Daily Beast's full article at this link (subscription required).