GOP’s path to reclaiming Senate majority goes through these two popular red state Democrats

2024 will not only be a close election for the White House, but also for control of the US Senate. Next November, voters in 34 states will also have US Senate elections on the ballot, with Republicans only needing two net gains to regain control of the chamber.

Because Sen. Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) is choosing to not run for another term next year, that means Republicans will almost certainly flip his seat in the deep-red state former President Donald Trump won by nearly 40 points in 2020. This means the biggest targets for the GOP next year will be Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Montana). Both senators are running for another six-year term in 2024 in states that are reliably pro-Trump. The former president comfortably won in the Buckeye State by eight points in 2020, and by nearly 17 points in Montana.

However, as NPR recently reported, the GOP's hopes of flipping those seats have become somewhat complicated by two factors: A lack of GOP primary winners with general election appeal, and the popularity of both incumbents. Polling data from Morning Consult shows that both Brown and Tester have more home state voters in approval of them than disapproving. And Republicans have previously lost winnable Senate races in red states in recent election cycles, like Arizona and Georgia, where far-right GOP candidates like Blake Masters and Herschel Walker narrowly lost.

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"Normally the most extreme candidate gets out of a Republican primary. After the primary, they're also damaged in many ways, and their flaws are quite apparent to the voters, and when given that contrast, we win," said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Michigan), who is heading Senate Democrats' campaign arm in 2024.

One major issue that will likely play a decisive role in next year's Senate elections is abortion rights. Sen. Brown is banking on highlighting the contrast between his Republican opponents' hardline stances on abortion and his own pro-choice philosophy. This strategy may very well pay dividends given the Ohio electorate's recent decision to enshrine abortion rights in their state's constitution. Brown is notably shrugging off suggestions that he move further to the right to court more Republican-leaning voters to his side.

"Voters don't think in those terms. Pundits do, and maybe some reporters do, and maybe some of my colleagues do. But to me, it's 'Whose side are you on?' Brown told NPR.

Aside from attempting to oust popular red state Democrats, Republicans will also have competitive races on their hands in both Florida and Texas, where Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida) is facing a challenge from former Rep. Debbie Murcasel-Powell (D-Florida), and where Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is seeking another term after narrowly defeating challenger Beto O'Rourke by less than 3 points in 2018.

READ MORE: These 10 US Senate seats are most likely to flip in 2024