How '3 Trump-appointed Supreme Court justices' can make or break America’s economy

More than once, the U.S. Supreme Court's 6-3 GOP-appointed right-wing supermajority has ruled in ways favorable to President Donald Trump — from presidential immunity to immigration policies. But it remains to be seen how the High Court will ultimately rule on the steep tariffs that Trump is unilaterally imposing, by executive order, on a long list of countries.

Trump is invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA), signed into law by President Jimmy Carter, in defense of his tariffs. And the Court, in a November 5 hearing, heard oral arguments both for and against that approach in the case Learning Resources v. Trump.

In an article published by the conservative website The Bulwark on Thursday night, November 6, Catherine Rampell — an MSNBC host and former Washington Post opinion columnist — argues that SCOTUS' conservative justices can either make or break the U.S. economy in the weeks and months ahead.

"If you ever took an econ class," Rampell explains, "you probably learned the two main ways the government can stimulate a sagging economy: The Federal Reserve can cut interest rates, or Congress can pass a spending or tax-cut package. We may soon discover an innovative third form of stimulus, courtesy of the Supreme Court. As this week's elections made clear, Americans are unhappy about the economy. With good reason. Layoff announcements have reached recessionary levels; subprime borrowing is back; electricity prices are skyrocketing. To the extent we can actually measure anything right now — given that the shutdown has halted the release of government economic data — we appear to be suffering from the dreaded s-word: stagflation."

The MSNBC host adds, "What's stagflation, you ask? It's when prices are rising (inflation) while the economy is slowing (stagnation)."

Rampell argues that Trump has "one weird trick" he could use to "help cure stagflation without turning to Congress or the Fed — he "could just cut tariffs."

"Alas, our self-described 'Tariff Man' president hasn't taken the hint," the former Washington Post columnist stresses. "Instead, Trump has septupled(!) the average effective tariff rate from 2.4 percent in early January to 17.9 percent (on November 6), and threatened to jack up rates further. His tariffs are being challenged in court, however. SCOTUS heard oral argument…. in one of those cases, and the justices sounded pretty skeptical that Trump has the broad tariffing power he claims."

Rampell continues, "As of this writing, betting markets placed the odds that Trump’s tariffs survive at a measly 27 percent…. It would be very painful if the Court surprises everyone and ultimately decides Trump does have the authority under IEEPA to implement these tariffs. Expect a market rout and widespread panic if that happens…. In short order, we could find ourselves in a scenario in which the Supreme Court, stacked with three Trump-appointed justices, hands him a political gift."

Catherine Rampell's full article for The Bulwark is available at this link.