'The clock is ticking': Mike Johnson is caught between a shutdown and being fired as speaker

When Rep. Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) was confirmed as House speaker, the vote came down along party lines. No Republicans voted against Johnson, whose far-right Christian nationalist views and efforts to help former President Donald Trump overturn the 2020 election results have been drawing a great deal of scrutiny from critics.

But as far to the right as Johnson is, that doesn't necessarily mean he is immune to the fate that former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California) suffered when he was ousted as speaker in early October. No matter how much McCarthy attacked President Joe Biden and relentlessly defended Trump, he was never MAGA enough for Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) —whose "motion to vacate" led to McCarthy's ouster.

Two articles — one published by the Daily Beast on January 12, the other by the conservative website The Bulwark on January 11 — describe Johnson's vulnerability as speaker and the fact that he is caught between a rock and a hard place. Johnson will be blamed if there is a federal government shutdown, but he risks being ousted as speaker if enough far-right House Republicans turn against him.

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The Bulwark's Joe Perticone explains, "While the potential victim of the human sacrifice is different this time, the reasons for offering it are the same: Far-right members of the House Freedom Caucus and their allies are livid that compromises are a necessity of a functioning government and that their own uncompromising positions and policy proposals are not being given priority in the negotiations. Thanks to Republicans' waning majority, these tantrums are upstaging normal business. Something's got to give. That's why Speaker Mike Johnson is at risk of losing the gavel just three months into the job."

Perticone adds, "Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) made clear that all options for bringing Johnson to heel are under consideration, including a potential motion to vacate — the rule Republicans implemented when they took control of the chamber that allows a single member to prompt a vote to remove someone from the speakership."

Reporting for The Daily Beast, Riley Rogerson stresses that early 2024 finds Johnson is "at a crossroads in his speakership" — and the "clock is ticking."

"Ever since Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) agreed to even just the framework of a government spending deal with Democrats on Sunday, the House has been in chaos," Rogerson observes. "First, it was conservatives raging against the deal, calling it 'a sham.' While there wasn't much talk of an effort to boot Johnson, some Republicans — like the perpetually dissatisfied Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) — made it clear it was an option on the table."

READ MORE: Conservative warns Mike Johnson is following in Kevin McCarthy’s failed footsteps

Rogerson continues, "But the discontent was strong enough that conservatives took their anger a step further, blocking the House GOP’s legislative agenda as a signal of their opposition. A dozen hardliners voted down a rule — a procedural vote that, until lately, was a huge taboo for the majority to oppose. Their mutiny, however, was a reminder that, without near-unanimous GOP support, any Republican speaker, no matter if he's one of the conservatives’ own, is an endangered species."

Johnson's "options," according to Rogerson, "suck" because "standing by" a spending deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) "means incensing his right flank." But a shutdown isn't a good option either.

"He can go back on his word with Democrats, jeopardize his future ability to negotiate with anyone on Capitol Hill, and insist on a new deal," Rogerson notes. "Or he can tell the conservatives to live with the deal and dare them to act. If he goes with the first option, he'd be extremely unlikely to get any more concessions, would needlessly raise expectations, and in the end likely have to agree to the same deal he already accepted — only he would have managed to piss off everyone in the process. But the alternative — Johnson sticking to his guns — isn't exactly palatable either."

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Read The Bulwark's full article at this link and the Daily Beast's report here (subscription required).