'There’s only Trump': Analyst reveals what the 'actual' MAGA base really cares about

When President Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden, some GOP strategists complained that he was too heavily focused on rallying his MAGA base and didn't do enough to expand his support. In 2024, however, Trump had more of a coalition, firing up his hardcore MAGA followers but also reaching out to independents, swing voters, Latinos and tech bros in a big way.

It worked: Trump didn't win by a "landslide" as the president and many of his allies claim, but the coalition was enough to get him past the finish line and give him a narrow victory of roughly 1.5 percent victory over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the national popular vote.

Recently, there has been much discussion of conflicts within Trump's coalition, especially over his decision to attack Iran militiarily. But Never Trump conservative Matt K. Lewis, in an opinion column published by the Los Angeles Times on June 23, offers some reasons why he believes that cracks in Trump's coalition won't matter.

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Lewis notes Trump's disagreement with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson over Iran policy; Trump attacked Carlson's anti-interventionist views on Iran as "kooky."

"It's tempting to see this spat as the beginning of a schism — a break that might finally yield a coherent Trump Doctrine, at least, as it pertains to foreign policy — possibly returning the GOP to a more Reaganite or internationalist party," Lewis explains. "But that misunderstands the nature of Trump and his coalition. These coalitional disagreements over public policy are real and important. But they mostly exist at the elite level."

Lewis continues, "The actual Trump voter base? They care about only one thing: Donald Trump. And Trump resists ideological straitjackets. If Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu rubs him the wrong way next week as he did by congratulating Joe Biden in 2020, or if Israel's military campaign starts slipping in the polls, Trump could flip faster than a gymnast on Red Bull."

According to Lewis, claiming that Trump's "spats" with Carlson or Tesla/SpaceX head Elon Musk will seriously damage his coalition ignores the fact that he has "no coherent philosophy" and "no durable ideology."

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"What we’re watching is a guy making it up as he goes along — often basing decisions on his 'gut' or the opinion of the last guy who bent his ear," Lewis argues. "So if you're looking for a Trump Doctrine to explain it all — keep looking. There isn't one. There's only Trump."

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Matt K. Lewis' full column is available at this Los Angeles Times link (subscription required).