U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) on January 30, 2026. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper
Trump's first presidency, there was a caveat. Democrats flipped the U.S. House of Representatives with a net gain of 40-plus seats, but Republicans held the U.S. Senate. Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell would continue to serve as Senate majority leader in 2019.
In 2026, Democratic strategists, keeping a close eye on Trump's low approval ratings in countless polls, are feeling increasingly optimistic about retaking the House in this year's midterms but know that trying to flip the Senate will be an uphill climb. In an article published on February 6, however, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports that Republican Party leaders are becoming "increasingly worried" about possibly losing the Senate in November.
"President Trump has warned Republicans that losing their slim House majority could lead to a third impeachment," Isenstadt explains. "But a Democratic takeover of the Senate would be a political earthquake — and neuter his last two years in office. Zoom in: For the first time, GOP strategists are telling Axios that losing the Senate — where Republicans have a 53-47 majority — is a distinct possibility, and that they'll have to fight harder than expected to keep control. Operatives say they've reviewed polling that shows the GOP facing competitive Senate races not just in traditional battlegrounds such as Michigan, Maine and North Carolina, but also, in conservative states like Alaska, Iowa and Ohio."
Isenstadt adds, "Top GOP strategists acknowledge that immigration and the economy — the two issues that drove Trump's win in 2024 — are now liabilities."
A Republican operative who has looked at internal midterms polling told Axios, "A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate. Today, I would have to tell you it's far less certain."
Isenstadt notes that National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Tim Scott (R-South Carolina), during a recent slide presentation, "indicated the party's toughest challenge, based on its national polling deficit, is in Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces a tough path to reelection."
One of the United States' most famous conservatives, veteran Washington Post columnist George Will, believes that Texas' 2026 U.S. Senate race is in play for Democrats if the nominee is far-right State Attorney General Ken Paxton rather than incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn.
Isenstadt observes, "The NRSC penned a memo this week arguing that Cornyn is 'the only Republican candidate' who can 'reliably win a general election matchup' against either Democratic state Rep. James Talarico or U.S. Rep Jasmine Crockett (D)…. Even if Paxton wins in November, many Republicans warn, the party will have to unexpectedly spend tens of millions of dollars more than if Cornyn is the nominee."
Isenstadt also points out that Georgia Republicans' "failure to recruit" GOP Gov. Brian Kemp for the state's Senate race "has been a major setback in the party's efforts to pick off the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for reelection, Georgia's Jon Ossoff."
