The GOP primary will be effectively over before Trump gets his first criminal verdict: report
The 2024 Republican presidential primary calendar is particularly advantageous to former President Donald Trump, given the timing of his four upcoming criminal trials.
According to NPR's count, more than 70% of all available delegates up for grabs in the GOP's nominating contest will be allocated by the end of March, when the former president may still be in the midst of his trial in Washington, DC for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2020 election. That trial is set to begin on March 4, 2024, which is the day before the pivotal Super Tuesday primaries when 17 states and territories will be holding elections. Roughly 36% of all delegates in the 2024 Republican primary will be allocated on Super Tuesday, including the delegate-rich states of California and Texas.
The fact that Trump's first trial could still be ongoing by the time a bulk of delegates have been allocated is a particular boon for Trump, as Reuters reported in August that approximately half of Republican voters would not support him if he were convicted of a felony. Trump's remaining trial dates — March 25 in Manhattan, May 20 in the Southern District of Florida and a proposed August 5 date for Fulton County, Georgia — all occur well into the primary calendar. The former president's Georgia trial, should it take place in August, would be after the Republican National Convention (RNC) between July 15 and July 18 in Milwaukee,, Wisconsin, when the presidential and vice presidential nominees are announced.
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A Republican candidate needs to clinch 1,215 delegates in order to secure the nomination. And under the GOP's rules, those delegates are "bound" to support the candidate that voters of their respective states and territories elected during their primaries and caucuses. The AP reports that the RNC currently has no rules in place governing what should happen if the presumptive nominee is convicted of a felony. However, the RNC's rules committee could theoretically pass a new set of rules ahead of the nominating vote.
However, Trump's acolytes are warning that such a rules change would be met with resistance from his coalition.
"Any attempt by any swamp rat, by any Washington, D.C., swamp rat, to mess with the rules will be summarily crushed by those of us that know how to run conventions," said Trump advisor Chris LaCivita, whom the AP described as a "senior consultant in charge of rules and floor operations for the RNC in 2016."
Currently, Trump holds a commanding lead over the rest of his competition in the GOP primary field, holding a nearly 30-point advantage over his closest rivals. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump has roughly 62% support among likely GOP primary voters, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a distant second at 13.6%.
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