GOP 'cautiously optimistic' about 2026 midterms — if the economy doesn’t tank

Democratic strategists, monitoring President Donald Trump's weak approval ratings in a long list of polls, are hoping that the 2026 midterms will see a major blue wave like 2018 — when, during Trump's first presidency, Democrats flipped the U.S. House of Representatives with a net gain of 40 seats.

But Washington, D.C.-based journalist David M. Drucker, in an article published by The Dispatch on October 10, reports that Republicans "are cautiously optimistic about their prospects ahead of the 2026 midterm elections" — depending on how voters are feeling about the economy next year.

"Eight years ago," Drucker reports, "Republicans approached the midterm elections with dread. Trump's unorthodox style and polarizing rhetoric shocked voters, fueling early and sustained dissatisfaction with his leadership that carried Democrats to a takeover of the House of Representatives on Election Day 2018 despite a booming economy. This time around, he's not just communicating controversially, but governing as such: deploying military troops domestically, ignoring congressional spending directives, siccing the Justice Department on political foes, conducting mass deportations, threatening First Amendment rights — the list goes on. Yet Republicans aren't worried."

GOP strategists and organizers, according to Drucker, "are seeing few signs of the sort of broad-based voter outrage that would suggest a blue-wave midterm backlash is building."

"Indeed, Republicans view Democratic chances of flipping the Senate as virtually nonexistent and are somewhat bullish about preserving their thin House majority," Drucker explains. "Only voters' palpable economic anxiety — driven largely by persistent inflation and Trump's aggressive tariff agenda — has Republicans concerned about the future of their congressional majorities."

GOP strategist Jason Roe sees the economy as the main thing that could sway the outcome of the 2026 midterms.

Roe told The Dispatch, "I'm less worried about Trump's actions — those are baked into the electorate's views. But I am very concerned about the economy."

A Republican consultant, interviewed on condition of anonymity, believes that Democratic infighting could hurt their chances of retaking the House in 2026.

The consultant told The Dispatch, "Democrats are so messed up right now. They have a bunch of unforced errors all over the place. When Democrats are being normal and moderate and thoughtful and common-sense, then I feel like everyone looks back to the right and is like: 'What's Trump doing?' Even if we can't turn it around on the economy, talking about the contrast with the liberal left is a big deal."

Read David M. Drucker's full article for The Dispatch at this link.