'Fight back': Two Dems in deep-red districts are heavily out-fundraising the GOP —here's why

This is not a great time for the Democratic Party brand, to put it mildly.

The party’s favorability rankings are in the tank, according to recent surveys. An NBC News poll taken earlier this month found just 27% of registered voters view the party favorably, the lowest such ratings in that poll for the Dems since 1990. Another survey released by CNN similarly found just 29% of voters look at the Democrats in a positive light — the lowest such number recorded by the channel since 1992.

And in Florida, where the Republican Party has been ascendent for years, two special congressional elections taking place in heavily Donald Trump-friendly red districts next week are expected to pad the GOP’s narrow lead in the House of Representatives. Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, running in Congressional District 1, and state Sen. Randy Fine, running in Congressional District 6, both have received endorsements from the president.

Yet the two Democrats running against them on April 1 — Gay Valimont in Congressional District 1 and Josh Weil in Congressional District 6 — are dominating in campaign contributions over their more heavily favored GOP opponents.

In CD 1 in the far northwest of the state, encompassing Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and parts of Walton County, Valimont raised $6.3 million from Jan. 9 through March 12, compared to her Republican opponent, who raised $1.1 million.

In CD 6, which encompasses St. John’s, Flagler, Volusia, and Lake counties, Josh Weil, an Orlando schoolteacher, raised $9.3 million, according to Federal Election Commission records released last week. Fine raised less than $600,00 in that same period.

“Ruby” red districts

How red are these two districts?

In November, Mike Waltz, now Trump’s national security adviser, defeated Democrat James David Stockton by 33 percentage points in CD 6. Gaetz defeated Valimont in CD 1 in November by 32 percentage points in a contest in which some pundits said he “underperformed” because his margin of victory was six points lower than Trump’s 38-percentage point victory there.

Both Democrats shrug off claims that they can’t win, and have been leaning heavily into the collective anger that has emerged over the Trump administration’s seemingly indiscriminate layoffs of tens of thousands of federal workers in the past two months, particularly in the Department of Veterans Affairs.

At a town hall meeting featuring former Marine Corps fighter pilot and veterans advocate Amy McGrath Thursday night in Pensacola, Valimont, a gun-control advocate and Pensacola Beach resident, was asked by a voter what the Democrats could do to fight back against the dizzying number of policy changes that Trump has enacted since Jan. 20.

“Everybody is asking what the Democratic Party is doing,” she said. “The Democratic Party … does not have enough votes to matter. Unfortunately, we did not win the majority. Nobody has recourse except for us. We can end that right here. I’m not making a stand against everybody, what I’m doing is making a stand for you. Because I live here with you, you are my neighbors. I want to take care of you.”

Weil is a 40-year-old schoolteacher and single father of two boys who lives in Orlando (both major candidates in District 6 live outside the district — Fine in Melbourne Beach). He says that when he began his campaign, his finance director dismissed the possibility that they might be able to raise $4 million as “crazy.” They’ve since raised double that amount.

An outlet for frustrated Democrats?

What’s behind the large numbers? Analysts suggest at least in part it’s because this is the first opportunity for voters disturbed about what is happening in Washington to try to make a difference right now, without having to wait until November 2026.

“I think it’s part of Democrats who just want to see some of their leaders being under pressure fight back against Trump,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “You have a bunch of donors at the grassroots level where their thinking might be, ‘Well, these aren’t the districts that would be friendliest to us, but this is what’s open. This is what’s available so, sign me up.’”

“There’s been plenty of advertising and pushing out — like, I get it on my own Instagram feed, which is Florida-centric, but I know that this is going out nationally where they simply talk about the margin in the House is this close and these two seats” could make a difference, said Matthew Isbell, an election-data analyst who works with Democrats.

“[National Democrats] are saying that, ‘If we just flip these seats, we can flip the House,’ which is like, yes, true, but it always leaves out the fact that these are incredibly Republican districts … and the likelihood of flipping it is, like virtually non-existent.”

“Democrats are motivated like never before,” added Darryl Paulson, professor emeritus of government at the University of South Florida at St. Petersburg. Noting the huge fundraising leads that Valimont and Weil enjoy, he jokes, “If money wins elections, then the Democrats are shoo-ins.”

But voter enthusiasm and bundles of campaign cash are “weapons that are not likely to be significant enough to expect a reversal of fortunes,” Paulson added.

Focus on Musk

The Democrats reject that conventional wisdom. Weil says that on the campaign trail he’s heard particularly strong criticism of Elon Musk, the billionaire brought in by Trump as the public face of the secretive “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), which is not an actual government department but nevertheless has sought to drastically reduce federal government spending and go after what its staffers see as waste.

“It doesn’t matter what type of door we’re knocking on, people are unhappy because they didn’t vote for that. No one voted for him,” Weil said of Musk.

“But even among people who voted for Donald Trump, they never thought that he would, that there would be cuts to the VA. No matter how they try to spin it, the veterans felt the cuts with in the first 48 hours. I remember, it was about a day or two after the initial cut of thousands of doctors and nurses, and we were speaking at a VFW hall in the district and just veteran after veteran was coming up to us and telling us that it’s just real. Their doctors’ appointments, their scheduled operations or procedures had all been pushed back four to six months.”

“They never believed that he would do these things when elected. And it’s not what they thought they were voting for,” he said.

Valimont says she’s hearing the same things in her district.

“We’re talking about the 20,000 federal employees who live here,” she told the Phoenix on Monday. “We’re talking about our VA already being at 140% capacity and now 83,000 jobs are being cut. People are already broke, and things about to get a lot worse in our district.”

For his part, Patronis has said he’s not surprised at the money coming for the Democrats.

“They’re going to spend money because they’ve got no other race in the country to spend money on other than Congressional District 1 and Congressional District 6,” he told the Pensacola News-Journal. “So all of their resources are going (into this race) because they’re trying to use this as a referendum on President Trump’s leadership.”

Republicans regaining focus

Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power isn’t showing much concern.

“It does not surprise me that Democrats are funneling lots of money through, under investigation, Act Blue potentially illegally. Just like in 2024, no matter the amount of fake energy the democrats attempt to create, Floridians are not buying what they are selling,” he said in a text message.

(ActBlue is a Democratic Party online fundraising platform that is being investigated by a GOP-led committee in the U.S. House regarding allegations of illicit campaign activity).

Both Republicans are fighting back.

In a new ad that began airing this week, Patronis uses Valimont’s verbal criticisms of Trump as reasons why the MAGA-friendly district shouldn’t vote for her. Meanwhile, Fine and some political committees who support his candidacy have been pouring money into his campaign in just the past few days.

Isbell says metrics he’s looking at shed light on what 2026 might look like.

“You’re going to see a very red electorate and it’s going to go Republican most surely. But if the Democrats over-perform — and especially if they over-perform because they had stronger turnout or it looks like they won a good chunk of independents — then you can say, ‘Okay, that’s great. That means a lot for other districts,” he said.

“Whether it’s the 7th District or the 13th District or the 27th, there’s other seats that are much more competitive than either the 1st or 6th. I just think that some Democrats think that if they lose them, they’ll just get discouraged and think, ‘Oh, there’s no hope.’ And I just think that’s not what I’m looking at. I’m looking at 10 points, 15 points, even 20. These are very red seats, so anything that’s not 30 points is pretty notable.”

Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Florida Phoenix maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Michael Moline for questions: info@floridaphoenix.com.