Conservatives fear Republican is dooming her campaign in crucial swing-state race

On Tuesday night, November 4, Democratic and GOP strategists will be paying very close attention to the outcome of two gubernatorial races: one in Virginia that finds Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (an ex-CIA agent) up against Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, and one in New Jersey that finds Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill competing with Republican ex-State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli.

Both races are viewed as largely a referendum on Donald Trump's second presidency, and political strategists believe they could offer some signs on what to expect in the 2026 midterms.

The New Jersey race appears to be tightening: an Emerson College/The Hill poll released in late September finds Sherrill and Ciattarelli in a dead heat. On the Sunday, September 28 broadcast of "Inside Story" (a Philadelphia talk show that featured conservative/libertarian Michael Smerconish in this pre-CNN days) a panel of two liberals and two conservatives agreed that Sherrill should be "running away" with this race and not in a virtual tie with a Republican.

But in Virginia, Spanberger seems to have the advantage — at least for now.

Polls released in September find Spanberger ahead of Earle-Sears by 12 percent (Christopher Newport University), 6 percent (co/efficient) or 5 percent (Pulse Decision).

In an article published on September 29, The Hill's Julia Manchester reports that GOP strategists in Virginia fear that Earle-Sears is hurting her campaign by emphasizing "cultural issues…. in an off-year election likely to be dominated by economic concerns."

"Earle-Sears, in particular, has attacked her Democratic rival, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, over transgender issues, especially in regard to schools," Manchester explains. "This week, the lieutenant governor's campaign rolled out an ad labeling Spanberger as being for 'they/them' and supporting policies that allow 'men in girls' locker rooms' and parents to be unaware when their children seek gender-affirming care. In another ad, Earle-Sears accuses Spanberger of wanting 'boys to play sports and share locker rooms with little girls.'"

Manchester adds, "The strategy of invoking trans issues played well for Republicans in 2024, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) arguably won in 2021 on the parents' rights issue. But critics question whether Earle-Sears' message is meeting the moment when the cost of living and jobs are dominating voters' concerns."

Virginia was once a deep-red state, but it has evolved into a swing state in recent years and is arguably Democrats' best state in the South. Democrats have carried Virginia in every presidential election since 2008, although Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin enjoyed a single-digit victory in 2021.

"Overall, Spanberger has remained highly focused on the issues of rising costs and federal employment in Virginia following the Trump Administration's widespread purge of government jobs under its Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)," Manchester notes. "Earlier this week, in the wake of conservative attacks over the issue, Spanberger rolled out an op-ed in The Washington Post on DOGE's impact on Virginia’s economy. The state is notably home to a large swath of federal employees given its proximity to Washington, D.C., and its military presence…. Spanberger's strategy appears to be paying off in the polls. The Decision Desk HQ polling average of the race has Spanberger leading Earle-Sears with 50.1 percent support to 43.1 percent."

Read Julia Manchester's full article at this link.