President Trump and his Republican Party are in danger of losing one or both houses of Congress during the upcoming midterm elections, according to NPR — and there is more than one reason why this is the case.
NPR points to five specific variables that suggest Trump and the Republicans will suffer significant losses in November. Trump’s approval rating is currently at 39% and has remained below 40% since November, even though parties whose presidents have less than 50% approval ratings lose an average of 32 House seats during midterm elections. On average, the president’s party has lost 27 House seats and four Senate seats since World War II. Because of Trump’s unpopular economic, immigration and foreign policies, he is polling poorly among key groups that he won during the 2024 election, including independents, young voters and Latinos.
Honing in on the economy, NPR pointed out as its second observation that 54% of Americans feel Trump should prioritize lowering prices and only 36% approve of his handling of the economy. Almost three out of four voters (72%) say his economy has been either fair or poor, while roughly three out of eight (38%) say they believe conditions will worsen. More than half (52%) say Trump’s policies have made things worse.
NPR’s third point is that Democrats have recently overperformed in special elections, including a recent Texas State Senate race held in a district that Trump won by 17 points in 2024 but was won by the Democratic candidate by 14 points, indicating a 31-point swing. Overall Democrats have overperformed their 2024 margins by an average of nearly 16 points in the various congressional, gubernatorial and special elections that have occurred during Trump’s second term.
Making matters more ominous for Republicans, NPR’s observes as its fourth point that 30 Republican House members are retiring this cycle compared to only 21, both reflecting on Republicans’ feelings of vulnerability and because — with only a four-vote margin in the current House — the nine-vote deficit eliminates House Republicans’ potential incumbency advantage.
Finally, Democrats currently hold a roughly 5-point advantage over Republicans when voters are asked which party they want to control Congress, a significant shift from when Republicans led on this question last year.
Further fleshing out Republicans’ midterms dilemma, Press Pass author and Bulwark congressional correspondent Joe Perdicone explained that Trump’s dominance over the Republican-controlled Congress has actually hindered individual members’ ability to serve their constituents’ local needs.
“Mike Johnson does everything that Trump says and he doesn't allow anything that Trump won't allow. And, so, the House doesn't get to do anything,” Perticone said. “You don't get to prioritize your little pet projects. A lot of these members of Congress, they like to do things that are very specific to their interests. But when you have this paralyzed floor, you have a very thin majority. So they're not having fun right now and they know it's only going to get worse when they're in the minority. So, you know, go find a job elsewhere. Go get rich lobbying.”
Many of Trump’s critics worry that, in anticipation of losing the midterm elections and facing potential impeachment, he will try to rig them in his favor. Trump has lent credibility to these concerns by baselessly claiming the 2026 midterm elections will be rife with fraud and that he therefore may need to send ICE to monitor them. The White House even recently announced a position of FBI Election Executive, a seemingly-new position they claim is not an original creation.
To explain Trump’s actions, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday that there is “horrible corruption on elections — and the federal government should not allow that. The federal government should get involved.”
