'Major warning sign': Data analyst bucks GOP spin on election results

CNN analyst Harry Enten warned Republicans do themselves a disservice by denying the message behind the Tuesday election where Democrats virtually swept the board in ever state with a race.

House leadership insists Democrats only won in Democratic territory, with House Majority leader Steve Scalise claiming “If Alabama held an election also Tuesday and, gee whiz, a Republican governor was elected governor of Alabama, would anybody be writing a story about it?”

Enten said the numbers have an issue with Scalise’s argument.

“I disagree entirely,” said Enten. “I think that the house is on fire and he's like the dog saying, ‘this is fine.’”

“It's all about the margins, baby,” Enten continued. “Look at democratic candidates margins in 2024. In New Jersey, Kamala Harris won by six points. What happened on Tuesday? Well, right now (Democratic Rep.) Mikie Sherrill is ahead by 13. That might be 14. We're talking about a shift of at least seven points upwards of eight.”

Harris also won in Virginia by six points, but Enten pointed out Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger won by 15 points.

“We're talking about a shift of about nine points,” Enten said. “If we had an average eight-point shift across the board in all the different House seats from the 2024 results … you would be talking about a Democratic gain of about 20 seats, depending on redistricting. So, when I see those results on Tuesday night, I see these giant, huge shifts in the Democratic direction. I say Republican leaders wake the heck up and have some of what I'm having, because this is a major warning sign.”

But Enten said these weren’t the only signs with 2025 House special elections also outpacing Harris in 2024.

“There have been five House special elections so far this year and in every single one of them across the board: 11 points in Virginia; Texas, by 18 points,” Enten said, adding that Dems also outpaced Harris’ win by one point in one Florida seat and by six points in another.

“What we are seeing are clear shifts towards the Democratic candidates in all five of them. And we're talking about shifts on average … of about or north of 15 percentage points from the 2024 presidential baseline, which is even larger than the shifts that we saw in both Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday night.”

Worse for Republicans, Enten said off-year elections reliably forecast what’s going to happen in mid-terms.

“If a party outperforms in House special elections five out of five times, … they have gone on to win the U.S. House the following midterm — every single time since the 2005 2006 cycle,” Enten said. “Yes, New York is a blue city, and Virginia and New Jersey are blue states. But historically speaking, when you sweep all three, you go back since the FDR administration, guess what? The Democrats, when they sweep all three, go on to win the House five out of five times.”

“If I'm Steve Scalise, I am not dismissing these results. I'm going to try and get myself some fire insurance,” Enten said.

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