The Democratic Party 'moderates' are no longer moderates: report

New Republic writer Perry Bacon says Democratic Party voters appear to have evolved over the last decade, and the “moderates” of a few years ago are not the moderates one thought they were.

“There has been a constant drumbeat over the last decade, particularly in the months after the 2024 election, that the party’s progressive wing is full of woke, over-educated scolds out of step with average Democrats,” said Bacon. “What this data suggests is that moderate Democratic voters are fully in line with the growing economic populism in the party and actually want more of it. And on social issues, they aren’t as worried about a Democratic Party that strongly defends transgender people and abortion rights as many centrist pundits are.”

Evidence suggests that Democratic voters who describe themselves as moderate now want Democrats “to push harder to increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations and don’t think the party is overly liberal on issues such as abortion and transgender rights.” A recent poll of roughly 2,400 Democratic voters who vote regularly in primaries revealed that about 70 percent of self-identified “moderates” said Democrats are “too timid” in taxing the rich, taxing corporations, and cracking down on companies that break the law.

“A clear majority of moderates said the party is too timid in regulating Big Tech companies. Fewer than 5 percent of moderates said Democrats are ‘too aggressive’ in their dealings with the rich, corporations, and Big Tech,” said Bacon. “On other issues, from government spending to fighting climate change to LGBTQ rights, the overwhelming majority of moderate respondents said that Democrats’ positions are ‘about right.’”

Meanwhile, surveys from a recent Strength in Numbers/Verasight confirm that 74 percent of moderate Democrats back the creation of a single-payer health care system, and nearly 70 percent support increasing taxes on households with incomes above $400,000.

Even the most moderate Democrats aren’t clamoring for a more aggressively centrist or conservative Democratic Party, said Bacon.

“This data has important implications. Politicians associated with the party’s center-left wing, such as new governors Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, often take populist and progressive actions. That’s probably because that’s where their voters are. Sherrill and Spanberger are cracking down on ICE’s conduct in their states because that’s what even moderate Democrats want,” said Bacon.

Additionally, Sen. Ruben Gallego, (R-Ariz.), a moderate who is considering a 2028 presidential run, is warning corporations currently collaborating with the Trump administration that Democrats will break them up if they get back into power. Texas Senate candidate James Talarico is also courting moderates by attacking the wealthy.

And while this doesn’t mean doesn’t mean Rep. Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) will cruise to the 2028 nomination, Bacon said “the information presents some real challenges” for democratic conservative groups like Third Way, who don’t want the party to move any more left.

“These surveys suggest moderate voters are not like the people who purport to speak for them,” said Bacon. “And that’s crucial for Democratic candidates and strategists, as well as journalists, to understand.