'People keep getting jobs': Economists impressed by latest jobs report as wages grow
Economists were surprised and impressed with the May jobs report, and there are some significant facts in the data they’re praising that affect everyone in America.
“People keep getting jobs.”
That’s how Washington Post columnist Heather Long explains the just-released May jobs report: “Another big jobs report. The US economy added 272,000 jobs in May, blowing past expectations of ~190k. People keep getting jobs, esp. in healthcare., gov’t and hospitality.”
“This labor market just won’t quit,” observed Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell, calling the slight rise to 4% “still pretty damn good!”
“Labor force participation rate for prime-age workers at highest level since 2002,” she noted, adding: “Prime-age women’s labor force participation rate at highest level EVER.”
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Joey Politano, who writes about economics at Apricitas Economics, charted what women’s unemployment looks like:
Politano also reveals the childcare crisis has greatly improved:
Martha Gimbel, a former Senior Advisor at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, put today’s numbers in context: “For reference, average job growth was around 170K in 2019 so job growth around 250K (50 percent above the pre-pandemic average) is not too shabby.”
She also took a dig at analysts who had predicted far worse results: “Once again, payroll growth laughs at your expectations.”
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The unemployment rate did tick up just a slight amount, to 4.0%, the first time it’s hit that number in over two years. Despite what the general public believes, under President Biden unemployment has been and remains at or near 50-year lows.
Last month The Guardian reported a Harris Poll found 49% of Americans “believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.”
Four years ago, the May 2020 jobs report showed unemployment had dropped to 13.3%, from 14.7% in April 2020 – that’s more than triple where we are now.
Center for American Progress vice president of research Will Ragland sums up the current state of the economy, focusing on these four facts: “15.6 million jobs created under Biden administration. Labor force participation for prime-age workers is at its highest in over 20 years. Women’s employment rate hit another high. Unemployment remains at historical lows.”
Barron’s notes that wages are growing, “at the fast rate since January.”
“Americans’ average hourly earnings rose faster than expected in May, up 0.4% from the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. That was 4.1% higher than a year ago and compared with the consensus estimate of 0.3% growth, per FactSet.”
Howard Forman, Yale University professor of radiology, economics, public health, and management notes today’s unemployment report is not “good news for stock or bond markets. (or those looking for lower interest rates) But the silver lining is that REAL (inflation adjusted) wages are growing strongly. Great news for labor.”
He also pointed out four facts, writing: “What might be temporarily bad news for Capital markets is great news for Biden.
1. Very strong labor markets (continuing record job creation).
2. Increasing REAL wages.
3. Declining inflation.
4. Growing economy.”
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