Inside Trump’s new plan to overhaul your Social Security benefits
Once again, the Trump administration is floating possible changes for Social Security benefits, employer taxes and withholding holding – all with a lean toward more private investment.
The idea is to follow an Australia approach to its retirement system. At heart, it is a mandatory savings program that requires employers to contribute 12% of a worker’s ordinary earnings into tax-favored retirement accounts managed largely by private funds.
Even the suggestion of Social Security changes can create instant political problems, and this unfinished thought will probably undergo lots of review before it moves towards any kind of practical proposal.
The existence of such an idea came on the launch of the new Trump Accounts program that offers eligible children a $1,000 tax-advantaged, government deposit at birth between 2025 and 2028, and up to $5,000 in annual contributions from philanthropists — all to be managed by private companies.
Naturally, the early list of such philanthropists, including $6.25 billion from Michael and Susan Dell and Dell Computers, mesh nicely with corporate donors to Trump political campaigns.
Indeed, Trump described the thinking as similar to that behind the Trump Accounts – only for “grownups as opposed to children. ” Trump frequently floats ideas before they have been vetted, to gauge any public support or criticism.
While seniors don’t get rich from Social Security into which they have paid for years, it is steady, monthly, predictable income that along with Medicaid can allow them or disabled recipients to gauge how much more they may need to earn through personal savings, investments, property sales or the like. It is the steadiness that since the FDR years has provided an economic and political anchor. With population shifts and various bureaucratic shuffling, that has become less than sure without specific action.
Of course, there are more direct ways to support a Social Security system that experts constantly warn will run out of money, including taxes or raising the age of eligibility. But those involve significant political problems, and the strong preference among Trump and Republicans in Congress has been to look to private individual investment plans rather than government supports.
The most recent report by Social Security’s trustees said they will need new support to maintain full benefits by the end of 2032. In a radio broadcast, House Speaker Mike Johnson said that “entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and things like Social Security” need to be “adjusted and fixed,” euphemistic language for benefit cuts.
Someone should remind the Speaker that we all pay into our Social Security; there is nothing “entitled” about it.
What We Know
Trump says he is looking “very strongly” at an Australia-style retirement system, “Taking that, making it sharper,” without any detail. He suggested the investment model could put people in “much better shape” by retirement age than relying on Social Security.
It would be interesting to see how an America that cannot agree on compulsory vaccinations for the health of workers or its children would react to a required government savings program.
Australia’s retirement system is built around “superannuation,” a mandatory savings program that requires employers to contribute 12% of a worker’s regular earnings into a privately managed fund. The current tax rate for Social Security is 6.2% for the employer and 6.2% for the employee, or 12.4% total. The current rate for Medicare is 1.45% for the employer and 1.45% for the employee, or 2.9% total.
The Australian retirement system includes a government-managed Age Pension which, like Social Security is based on taxes and paid to seniors and the disabled, this mandatory “superannuation” planning account that requires a 9 % (soon to be 12%) employer payment per worker, and voluntary savings by individuals. The pension is needs-based, allowing the government to limit spending on individuals with secure finances. The superannuation can be thought of as a compulsory 401(k) program with private accounts required by the government.
The Australian government hopes to guarantee that all citizens will have enough savings to fund successful retirements on their own.
The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College has argued that while Australia’s system is highly rated internationally, the U.S. would still need to shore up Social Security and expand access to workplace retirement plans to meaningfully improve retirement security.
Experts suggest that mandatory employer savings plans may be acceptable during a normal economy, but more problematic during times of duress. Employers would want exemption from required payments during times of economic recovery. The Australian Age Pension has many of the same problems as Social Security, though officials hope any pension underfunding will be offset by the private investment plans. The required savings plan has been in place only for 10 years.
Australian savings per capita have greatly surpassed those of average Americans. Over 50 percent of American workers do not have a 401(k) plan, and not all of those with access make use of it. Of the portion of the population that does use a 401(k), the average contribution rate is about 3 percent. By comparison, Australia has 90 percent participation in a program that requires employer contributions.
Meanwhile, Wall Street Speaks
As this administration discusses mandatory private savings for retirement, Wall Street is lobbying Trump for more leeway in regulations over 401(k) retirement investments.
Trump has called for retirement plans to include less-regulated investments like private equity and cryptocurrency. His government is softening a legal protection by which workers have the right to hold an employer accountable when retirement savings are mishandled. Reporting at ProPublica says that the change is designed to give employers cover if those accounts are deflated by expensive, opaque or unproven investments.
Wall Street firms want a bigger piece of the $10 trillion in America’s 401(k) plans. Large corporations want to avoid class-action lawsuits from their employees.
When the 401(k) replaced pensions as the main way Americans fund their retirement, the investment risk shifted from employers to employees. There are no guarantees of how that investment will grow but employers are responsible for overseeing the company’s plan. Employers turn to aggregate investment companies like Fidelity or Vanguard for investment advice. There is no guarantee their choices are the most financially rewarding or secure in the long run.
Over the last 15 years, employees have increasingly sued large employers over unnecessarily high fees or inferior investment options. Now the Labor Department’s Employee Benefits Security Administration is devising complicated rules aimed at guaranteeing that various investment review steps are taken and shared, but more difficult to sue once those steps can be shown to be in place. The rules make it more difficult for workers to second-guess whether investments were the best.
At the same time, investors are eyeing riskier bets, including cybercurrency products.
The changes in financial investment rules add one more element to the privatization of Social Security.
Bottom line, we have the government considering moving more money from public Social Security accounts to privately managed accounts just as rule changes could make it more difficult to hold those making investment decisions on retirement funds accountable for the value of those funds.
If the goal is to remove government responsibility for retirement fund management, good thinking. If it is to assure workers of an easier retirement, these ideas may need more time in the processing oven.
Terry H. Schwadron retired as a senior editor at The New York Times, Deputy Managing Editor at The Los Angeles Times and leadership jobs at The Providence (RI) Journal-Bulletin. He was part of a Pulitzer Gold Medal team in Los Angeles, and his team part of several Pulitzers in New York.
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Trump's secret plans unmasked as he exposes his real agenda
Recent news disclosures are only adding to our understanding that for the Trump administration, grinding away at basic democratic values is a feature, not a bug.
Any thinking that Donald Trump's mass deportation strategy, for example, was such a high priority that he would suborn Constitutional rights—including the right to a hearing before a judge before a deportation sentence—is giving way to deeper recognition that erasure of individual rights is the point, not a byproduct.
The disclosure by New York Times journalists Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan this week that the White House actively discussed squashing Constitutional rights to a court hearing should be a frightening reminder of the fragility of our democracy under Trump, who wants complete say about treatment under the law for immigrants, citizens, protesters, and critics.
Lest anyone think that the Situation Room debate over suspension of habeas corpus rights—as required court hearings are known—was a sole attack on our republic, there was reporting that Vice President JD Vance led proposals to impose martial law with armed military on our streets through the Insurrection Act after the killing of two civilians in Minnesota by border agents.
Despite denials by Homeland Security, a letter filed in a court case shows that ICE border agents are creating a database of protesters who rally against immigration policies and operations. It seems a clear attack on First Amendment protections and follows numerous reports about repelling citizen oversight of border agents' actions in the field. In a previously unpublicized letter to Congress in April, recently departed acting ICE director Todd Lyons acknowledged the agency is collecting information on individuals suspected of potential violations of law, including interference with ICE operations or officer safety matters, and maintains records on people who were never arrested.
In the various reports, much of the pressure for the most extreme challenges to Constitutional rights seems to be coming from Stephen Miller, deputy chief of staff at the White House and deportation advocate.
Outrunning the Law
The disclosures about possibly erasing habeas corpus protections for migrants are in a forthcoming book and include a confidential memo by White House staff secretary Will Scharf, a lawyer, who warned Trump chief of staff Susie Wiles that the plan to suspend hearings amounted to a warning against end-running the rule of law.
The habeas protections go back to English law and the Magna Carta and have been abridged rarely—during and after the Civil War, to justify internment of Japanese Americans in World War II, and regarding Sept. 11 detainees held in Guantanamo. Suspension is something that only Congress can order.
The Times said that "Trump and some members of his team wanted to test how far the emboldened president's authority could be pushed, setting off previously unreported internal struggles over where the limits should be."
In Substack, columnist Joyce Vance, a former U.S. Attorney, says that the habeas debate was not about right or wrong, but about how much the administration could get away with before it set off one of the other two branches of government that could counter it. She noted that Miller frequently views the law as an obstacle to be overcome rather than an essential element of American democracy.
We are seeing abundant examples of the manipulation of justice procedures by the Trump Justice Department to prosecute Trump's political enemies, to whitewash the history of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots on Trump's behalf, to grant Trump extraordinary powers to set tariffs, and toward taking over elections and voting. We have witnessed Trump's strong hand in seeking to silence late-night comedians, dominate the news, and publicly support billionaire friends to buy news outlets that have aired criticism of him.
The question all along has been whether the stomping on individual rights has been a byproduct of achieving Trump's overall goals or whether they are a goal unto themselves. The recent disclosures suggest that they are.
The issue is whether November elections can alter that course.
Countering the Slide
We got double reminders yesterday of what joy in our public lives can look like.
In New York City, thousands took to the streets in sheer joy for a Knicks basketball championship, buoyed by words from Mayor Zohran Mamdani and local officials about the unifying effects of sport to overcome all the deep divisions we otherwise suffer.
And in Chicago, the opening of the Obama presidential center devoted to public engagement regardless of party and ideology was a welcome moment for simple fealty to the ideas that we are larger than our partisan selves. Soaring words from Barack and Michelle Obama that never mentioned the current occupant of the White House by name were testimony to an appeal to our higher selves.
Hallelujah.
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'Radical crackdown' as Trump turns the Postal Service into a weapon
Donald Trump is wasting no time on legal niceties in pushing for quashing of mail ballots for the November election.
Last Friday, one day after a federal judge declined temporarily to block the provision in Trump's election-related executive order, the U.S. Postal Service essentially announced that it would only deliver mail ballot applications to voters that the federal government recognizes, stopping the delivery of applications to tens of millions or more.
What the Postal Service rules made public last Friday was that it would strictly follow new mail-in ballot rules that require states to submit voter names, addresses and unique ballot barcodes for federal elections. The order also sets forth mandatory "best practices" for federal elections including Election Mail logos, tracking barcodes and design reviews.
No Democratic-run state as well as some Republican-run states has agreed to provide these names and private information to the government, arguing instead that this order is unconstitutional.
Whatever the wording, two things are true: Trump is seeking to stomp out mail-in voting with a federal order telling the states how to run their elections, and despite that single judge's decision not to put a stop to the order right now, the legal issues here are still very much in question.
Nevertheless, we should view this as a shot at blocking mail ballots that Trump has decided will run against his leanings about how the election should turn out. Along with redistricted Congressional lines now being upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court, attacks on voting machinery and vote-counting methods, the reduction of polling places particularly in rural, minority districts, Trump and Republicans are going full bore at derailing our November elections. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on two elections-related cases, one on a Republican effort to strike state laws that allow late-arriving ballots postmarked by Election Day, and the other about erasing more legal limits on campaign spending.
A Broad Campaign for Control
However broad the Trump campaign to control elections is, the challenges must be specific about each aspect. What we are seeing already in the redistricting cases is that confusion is building about which contradictory court orders in different states are changing or upholding procedures for early voting in primaries going on even now.
The official explanation from the Postal Service is that the rule would help determine how many ballot applications were mailed and allow officials to compare that figure with the number of returned to detect potential issues for further investigation. The rule would apply to general, special and runoff federal elections, but not primaries or ballots sent to military and overseas voters.
The postal service apparently would create state-specific "Mail-In and Absentee Participation Lists" through a new Federal Ballot Mail Portal. The proposal would also let the USPS return outbound federal ballot mailings that do not meet the new standards or are not tied to state-submitted voter lists.
Where Trump sees "rigged" elections through encouraging voting from home, democracy defenders see aggressive steps to block the vote.
In its statements, Democracy Docket headed by election lawyer Mark Elias calls these Postal Service rules "a radical crackdown on mail voting" and "an alarming step" towards trying to control who can vote this November. It also represents a massive expansion of federal control over voting, without congressional authorization.
Trump's March 31 executive order on elections directed the Postal Service to begin rule-making on mail-in and absentee ballot services. It triggered immediate lawsuits that have yet to be heard. The judicial ruling against blocking the new procedures said the challenge was premature because agencies had not yet carried it out. Publishing the new rule – expected today — could be the start of implementation as well as a period of public comment.
Democrats and voting rights groups argue that Trump's order intrudes on states' authority over elections and have defended mail-in ballots. The use of mail-in balloting expanded during COVID for health reasons, and ballot by mail strategies are used by both major parties, but Trump has decided the practice favors Democrats.
Under the Constitution, states run elections and only Congress can set national standards.
The lawsuits challenging limits says the new rules will lead to eligible voters being unable to cast ballots. In part, that's because the lists would rely on Department of Homeland Security databases that have been shown to have serious flaws.
The resolutions of all these cases would be easier with a huge turnout of voters.
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The Trump pattern continues: All talk and no receipts to show
The federal government keeps claiming there is massive fraud in its medical aid programs, but has been less than forthcoming about where it is and what's being done about it. Moreover, officials argue that if fraud were stopped, the federal deficit would disappear.
Instead, an outwardly partisan anti-fraud campaign has featured Vice President JD Vance in the starring role of tagging Democratic states as uncaring or incompetent about finding fraud. It all seems especially galling when the examples that Vance promotes generally are the result of already-run state investigations or the prospect of fraud possibility, inevitably involving programs by or for immigrants already barred by law from receiving benefits.
What's missing is an actual, evidenced accounting of what is supposed to be wrong rather than jumbled, unevidenced assertions that billions of public dollars are being wasted. Much like the fabled but discredited findings by Elon Musk's DOGE efforts a year ago, there is a lot of talk about fraud without the evidence to back up Vance's oft-repeated claims.
Indeed, news accounts of Vance presentations feature him or Dr. Mehmet Oz, head of the agency overseeing Medicare and Medicaid, discussing the possibilities of finding fraud without showing new cases.
As TalkingPointsMemo.com notes, Donald Trump used his State of the Union address to offer "an absurd, fantastical and quickly debunked claim: Once Vice President JD Vance had a chance to root out fraud from (blue states') social services programs, the federal budget would be balanced and the deficit would disappear."
Nope. Despite the hype, there is still a huge, quickly increasing federal debt and no list of fraudsters.
The White House has decided that Minnesota, California, and now Maine are either purposely (for political reasons) or incompetently ignoring Medicaid eligibility or fraudulent reporting of child-care reimbursement programs. Apparently, fraud that continued under the first Trump administration should not count.
The campaign started in earnest after Trump decided to attack Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and other state officials there who oppose Trump's deportation efforts over reports—some true, some not—that there had been fraudulent child-care schemes in that state. Trump made it all political by connecting those schemes—which had been prosecuted after state investigations—to efforts by Walz to shield Somali immigrants involved to gain their electoral support.
Quickly after naming Vance to head a White House effort to investigate fraud, the government has singled out blue states as bad actors in the filings of government reimbursements.
Last week, Vance hosted Republican attorneys general—Vance did not invite Democrats until the last minute, so they boycotted the session—and made clear that he will use this anti-fraud commission as another weapon in the retribution campaign Trump is waging against blue states by withholding federal funds as a form of punishment for various, nebulous offenses.
Vance said states should target Medicaid's social services spending and said the Health and Human Services Department would be reviewing how states use their Medicaid Fraud Control Units—ironically the very people who most often prosecute cases of Medicaid provider fraud. Indeed, states note that widespread cuts to Health and Human Services have made fraud investigation much more difficult.
While there is agreement that some fraud exists in federal spending, there is no evidence that it is as rampant as Team Trump claims nor only in blue states. To even keep deficit spending unchanging, for example, the amount of fraud would have to be triple what the Government Accounting Office estimates.
These public fraud charges are largely about suppliers who charge the government for a childcare facility that is not staffed, as an example from Minnesota. Medicare/Medicaid itself says the largest source of "fraud" is in overhyped medical prescriptions that result from the labyrinth for doctors to have to check the right boxes for reimbursement.
Just this week, ProPublica published an analysis showing upwards of $100 million a year spent for medically questionable vascular procedures for mildly affected patients.
But this campaign from Vance wants to pin blame on lack of Democratic state oversight for spending illegally on or for undocumented migrants or on allowing classes of ineligible aid recipients.
The GAO released a study in 2024, during the Joe Biden years, that estimated government-wide fraud was between $233 billion to $521 billion between 2018 and 2022 (including COVID years). The GAO collected data from prosecuted cases, from inspector general reports and confirmed fraud reported to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) by agencies. It used 46 fraud studies to build its model and to conclude that annual fraud losses amounted to between 3 percent and 7 percent of government spending. That is what the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid report as well.
Vance keeps telling reporters that in "just two months" the anti-fraud task force he has led for the Trump administration has "exposed billions of dollars in benefits that have been stolen from the American people." Vance claims the task force has deferred funds from fraudsters seeking small business loans and Medicaid reimbursements and recovered funds "stolen" from COVID relief programs.
Much of what Vance reports either already has been prosecuted or stopped or is believed to be the possible source of fraud. It is not new investigative gold. Vance placed a six-month hold on new hospice and home healthcare enrollments and shutdown of 780 hospice centers and asserted that he stopped $1.3 billion in fraud. How is that evidence? The task force referred $22 billion in small business loans for review, another $6 billion in government contracts, and $60 million in student aid payments. Calling them fraud doesn't make them fraud, a crime. Vance asserts that California and Minnesota are ignoring increases in fraud that he estimated in the billions without listing the who, what and how.
For the moment, assume all of it is true. For comparison, the federal cumulative deficit is estimated to be around $24 trillion, with growing costs of social services programs, interest, and, of course, tax cuts. GAO's estimates of fraud are nowhere near enough to balance that deficit.
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The smoking gun nobody's talking about: Trump's pattern is undeniable
Hours before Donald Trump was to sign the first executive order governing artificial intelligence development, Trump talked with tech leaders, all big contributors to Trump campaigns, who opposed it. Trump demurred and canceled the public signing.
An hour before Trump was about to order renewed military strikes last week against Iran in the stalled war and strangled shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf nation leaders – the same Gulf leaders who have been exceptionally generous business partners with the Trump family and businesses — asked Trump to back off for fear of retaliation in their own countries. Trump did as he was asked.
Just days before Trump allowed tobacco companies to sell flavored vapes, including to minors, a Reynolds American subsidiary donated $5 million to a super PAC backed by Trump bringing to $8 million the total donated by the subsidiary to MAGA, Inc. Two days after the donation, officials from Reynolds American and Altria, another tobacco company, lunched with Trump at his golf club in Jupiter, Fla., to express dissatisfaction with the way the Food and Drug Administration was regulating the industry, The New York Times reported.
There’s a building case about “pay-to-play” allegations about Donald Trump running a government by and for those who contribute to his family or causes in which Trump trades benefits, pardons, and policy decisions for cash – and loyalty to the point of law-breaking.
Congressional Democrats have launched investigations into whether presidential pardons and commutations were granted in exchange for large campaign donations or the hiring of Trump-aligned lobbyists, an inquiry that will boom if Democrats take the majority of at least one house of Congress in November. Trump’s special, personal, self-aggrandizing projects like the White House ballroom, the remake of the Kennedy-Trump Performing Center for the Arts, a Triumphal Arch and others spurred by donated millions by the wealthiest corporations and corporate leaders are drawing an increasing volume of ethics complaints.
Following the Trump model, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made a $5 million donation last month to a group supporting House Republicans just before he was interviewed by a Republican-majority House Oversight Committee about Jeffrey Epstein ties.
Financial gain aside, why aren’t more in Congress or in positions of power questioning just how Trump makes decisions and issues orders that reset our daily regulations? Does Trump lack the advisers or expertise to run the government? Just who is making the decisions, whether for war, health or AI?
Killing an AI Executive Order
The AI decision seems a good place to dig down, since it is seen as central to the next chapter in our economy and that of the world.
As we all understand, a totally unregulated industry is growing by leaps into an information abyss in which even the industry leaders readily acknowledge that they do not know exactly how machines learn, or what restraint or lack of restraint machines can understand in taking over human tasks.
What business understands is that there is a race on for development and that there are huge profits to be made for technology companies and huge displacements of workers on the horizon to make work less human-dependent – another perceived source of profit. On the government level, the race is seen as beating China and other nations towards control of the most popular and effective AI tools.
Strategically, then, business and government, or at least this government, are aligned on seeking regulation-free development for “innovation,” regardless of its effect on jobs, daily living, health benefits, income and lots more.
While states, including California, are moving to consider or adopt limits on AI development and worker replacements, the Trump government is chary about any national regulation except that which would quash Democratic state rules. The order that Trump was considering – not a law – was a voluntary system under which companies would provide the government with an early look at frontier AI systems — up to 90 days before public release — so agencies could test the models for dangerous capabilities, identify vulnerabilities, and prepare defenses before hackers or foreign adversaries could exploit them, according to a draft viewed by The Washington Post.
But even that was too much for industry leaders including SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, crypto leader David Sacks, and Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg, among other huge Trump donors, who warned Trump that the proposed vetting system could inhibit AI development. So, hours before a public signing ceremony last week, Trump called it off, saying he “didn’t like” the draft of the order.
As The Post noted, the incident underscored the immense influence that Silicon Valley leaders maintain in the Trump administration.
An OK for Flavored Vapes
As for the vapes, which even this government’s strange health policies have previously identified as a continuing health risk, the corporate lean was in the opposite direction – not only for unregulated vaping but for okaying flavored vapes that would appeal to the young.
The New York Times traced the donations and meetings with tobacco industry leaders that preceded the Trump decision, showing that the action followed direct, personal lobbying between high-paying donors and Trump. Those donations came to light in recent, required federal elections filings.
At a lunch with tobacco industry officials, Trump interrupted the conversation to call Dr. Marty Makary, the FDA commissioner, finally reaching Makary’s boss, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Dr. Mehmet Oz, the head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Times sources said Trump criticized FDA regulation e-cigarettes, and within the week, the FDA issued new guidance that could pave the way for major tobacco companies to begin selling flavored vapes.
Flavored vapes are seen as a road to profit in the billions and to rebut sales of illegal Chinese e-cigarettes. The new policy, which bypassed normal FDA review, also could allow higher nicotine levels in nicotine pouches. It includes a pledge to prioritize efforts to stop the import of illegal foreign vapes.
Four days later, Dr. Makary resigned, telling associates he could not in good conscience remain the head of an agency that backed such a policy.
It could be coincidence of the timing of donation, personal lobbying and policy rather than any required proof, but it serves as another milestone in the emerging pay-to-play legend that Trump is building. A spokesman for the White House said that the donation had nothing to do with the administration’s shift in vape policy.
MAGA Inc. , which raises money to support Trump-aligned candidates, collected $9.6 million last month. The super PAC received contributions of $1 million each from a division of the private prison firm Geo Group, the Republican megadonor Marlene Ricketts and two other donors.
A year ago, the Trump administration withdrew a proposed ban on menthol cigarettes, an initiative the Biden administration had already mostly abandoned. Trump’s team also set aside a Biden-era proposal to sharply restrict nicotine in cigarettes, an effort meant to speed the transition away from a product known to be deadly. The new guidance on flavored vapes could help companies like Reynolds gain market share considered central to the survival of the industry as cigarette sales wane.
The question is whose interests are Team Trump serving?
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Trump's magic trick: Selling Obama's deal as his own victory
It has become a complete diplomatic circle now: Donald Trump's team is putting basically the same deal with Iran on the table that he tore up in disgust seven years ago – with him failing to endorse it.
After all the bombing, threats of civilization destruction, blockades against Iranians shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the Trump administration has offered Iranians a 20-year ban on nuclear weapons development. Iran already publicly said that a five-year ban is okay by them.
Only Donald Trump now is saying he does not back the offer made by his own vice president and government. How do we deal with a president and vice president who don't know what they are putting on the negotiating table? Just this week, it became clear that the U.S. will not extend relief on sanctions on Iran's oil sales that they lifted the previous week. What are we doing?
Is it a mystery why Iran, a contentious renegade country, "mistrusts" the U.S.?
So, we're either starting another round of talks or not, either looking for a deal or not, insisting on total capitulation that does not seem in the cards or not.
But of among all the back-and-forth movements, the development that Vice President JD Vance translated Donald Trump's "never" into a 20-year bar on nuclear weapons development had to stand out as among the strangest.
For that matter, a blockade of Iranian exports by the U.S. Navy after Trump insisted that Iran was in serious wrongdoing for stopping free movement through the Strait is also peculiar, with military, diplomatic and business experts alike wondering how this will be sustained. Still main issue was — and remains – a permanent standdown from acquisition of nuclear weapons.
A Messy Reality
War never goes according to plan. We now know that Trump started this one by ignoring intelligence about some of the most obvious effects, including missiles and drone damage to neighboring Gulf nations and the rocketing price of oil from Iran's squeeze on the Strait. His idea that a quick bombardment, campaign would bring about the fall of Iran's regime, and an uprising in the streets has disappeared into a messy reality with the U.S. isolated in seeking an exit ramp.
Iran has shown that the U.S. achievements in military objectives do not equal a strategic victory.
The U.S. entered negotiations skewed by the stranglehold on the Strait, rising prices, lack of political support at home – and now seriously mixed messaging. Even the boasts that the war is "almost over" that Trump told Fox News is at odds with the announcement that a third aircraft carrier group and thousands more troops are on the way to the Middle East send too many simultaneous messages.
And if Vance advanced the 20-year deal, we were left confused about how different it would have been form the deal negotiated a lot more deliberately by Barack Obama's administration – with full participation and endorsement of the international community, including Russia and China. It called for 15 years' ban, with close observation and other monitoring, removal of any potential fissionable material and a pathway to extend it upon expiration – a deal that Trump has attacked repeatedly as weak.
Trump and team should be removed from office for incompetence, never mind graft, undercutting NATO, mismanaging trade and economic concerns, and cheapening the brand of the U.S. military for egoistic purposes.
Unresolved 'Victory'
We've watched Trump set aside diplomatic and military advice to follow his 'gut,' suborn U.S. strategic goals to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's constant need to bomb, claim 'victory' for a strategic outcome that is a complete mess at best.
The entire logic of the Iran war was to permanently end Iran's ability to process uranium and to accept nothing less than the entire dismantling of its missile and drone programs, its proxy armies in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen, to have a new government subservient to U.S. control – and, likely, a piece of Iran's oil reserves. We have exactly none of that, despite brilliant military targeting of Iran's naval, air, and radar.
Instead, Trump finds himself between a belligerent Iran and an unsupportive home front, with a looming congressional vote about cutting off funds for war, and rapidly declining voter support. He has lost respect in the world, is threatening to end our strongest alliance, helping Russia and China, and he seems lost in irrelevant, self-promoting social media posts that make him look mentally unstable.
If the difference truly is between a nuclear ban between 20 years and five, JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, none of whom have substantive diplomatic or technical knowledge, should be able to bring off a compromise. That the result of this could be a negotiated settlement with Iran that looks very much like what was negotiated in 2014 and torn up in 2019 by Trump 1.0 is almost beyond comprehension.
That is, unless Trump decides to bigfoot all of it and insist that the settlement is not what he had in mind at all.
How Trump, who found the Obama administration deal appeasing and weak would now declare his own version of the same deal to be an unprecedented victory will be magic trick of the highest order.
- Noam Chomsky: Why the Republican 'Radical Insurgency' Is So Panicked About the Iran Nuclear Deal ›
- Ann Coulter tears Trump apart: ‘Everybody pretend this is a huge victory’ - Alternet.org ›
- Trump's ego created a crisis he can't escape — and the world is paying the price - Alternet.org ›
- World leaders give Trump the silent treatment as they lose trust in America - Alternet.org ›
The only thing worse than having Trump as a sworn enemy
Maybe Donald Trump can publish another bestseller, an updated rewrite of Dale Carnegie's 1936 "How to Win Friends and Influence People."
After all, since his years as the "You're Fired" guy on "The Apprentice" television show, Trump has managed to bamboozle, cheat, directly insult and generally offend even his own Art of the Deal ways into a remarkable series of off-putting strategies that are consistent only in the result of throwing pretty much everyone with whom he has dealt under the nearest bus.
It's bad enough that he hates his enemies, yesterday rudely cheering the death of former FBI Director and Special Counsel Robert Mueller for deigning to investigate him, but Trump regularly now turns on his allies.
Just as Trump rewrote dealmaking as an artform based on cleverness in finding mutually agreeable trades for belligerence and threats, perhaps his new rewrite of friendships could exploit economic blackmail and military dominance as courtships to lasting relationships.
In this year back in the White House alone, Trump has managed single-handedly and without pressure ruined decades of personal and official ties to European allies and set off a hemispheric panic. He has breathed new life into failing enemies like Russia's Vladimir Putin and set off chasms within his own domestic political alliances.
This week, Trump managed to offend G-7 and NATO partners whose help he simultaneously was demanding to re-open the Strait of Hormuz — despite being unable himself to have avoided the predicted Iranian response to preemptive war. He called them "cowards," even while demanding they commit warships to a fight he decided to start alone, shunning their advice. He said clearing the Strait was "easy," wanting them to do it, but threatened to withdraw from attacking Iran without the U.S. doing the clearing work itself.
Whether the target is Ukraine's leader or the Japanese Prime Minister sitting in that Oval Office chair while Trump preens, the visitor waits expectantly now for a Trump remark that makes clear that "diplomacy" with an ally involved insult.
Apart from all else, Trump has confused friends of the U.S. with constantly changing policies and justifications for the war. By week's end, he even was showing discord with his one seemingly true international friend, Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, over whether there is a way out of this war. Netanyahu clearly sees a continuing war as helping him domestically.
Trump Cracked Base Remains
Yet, despite disagreements even within his base of supporters, Trump still owns Republican legislators who fear his reelection wrath for themselves. And Trump was still holding approvals from a third or more of the polled public who seem willing to swallow anything in the name of breaking government and making anti-trans and anti-immigrant sloganeering the nation's highest priorities.
For whatever reasons, his supporters continue to find his words, however contradictory, more comforting than his deeds, willing to overlook attitudes that touch racism, divisiveness, dictatorial power and now even war as justifiable towards some larger goal of breaking the status quo.
Millions of words have been spilled over the Trump magic of holding supporters close during one of his "transactional deals," only to stab them in the back soon thereafter.
The skeletons of former Vice President Mike Pence, former attorney generals, chiefs of staff, defense figures, generals and such rigid Republican senators as Mitch McConnell or Kevin McCarthy line the entry way into the Oval Office.
Apparently, the only thing worse than having Trump as a sworn enemy is to have him as a vocal friend – only to find the enemy is a scratch comment away.
The idea that Trump stands for nothing other than an image of strength, for ideals that last only long enough to complete an impatient transaction, are now cemented into the Trump legacy. In his name, Americans who do not kneel to him get hurt, and even political or international "friends" are always on trial with him.
Trump has insisted for decades now that only he alone can recognize and solve problems, that he needs no advice and counsel, and that, in fact, he hates systems of rules and traditions – including from the Constitution — that might block acting on his often-uninformed gut. In recent weeks, this isolationist decision-making has been on display with a series of nasty congressional hearings that feature his Cabinet members unable to explain even the most basic contradictions in Trump's utterances and departmental policies affecting national security, immigration, justice, health or environment.
Trump has embraced personal, national, even moral uncertainty as a weapon in winning friends and seeking global influence. It's not what we have taught our kids.
- America's allies are taking strategic steps as a key partner goes rogue ›
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- This delusional Trump rant helps expose his true enemy ›
- Trump is about to sell us out to our most sinister enemy ›
- Trump’s enemies kept 'up at night' by one 'unprecedented' advantage he has left - Alternet.org ›
- Congress's cowardice exposed again as Trump ignores judge's ruling - Alternet.org ›
- Trump is lucky some of his biggest enemies are cowards - Alternet.org ›
- Iran opens Strait of Hormuz to non-enemy vessels amid Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum By Investing.com ›
- Targeting of political opponents and civil society under the second Trump administration - Wikipedia ›
- Enemy of the People: Trump's War on the Press, the New McCarthyism, and the Threat to American Democracy | Harvard Kennedy School ›
- After Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum, Iran says ships can pass Hormuz Strait — except ‘enemy’ vessels - The Times of India ›
Missing from the Jack Smith show
Perhaps not unexpectedly, the awaited public appearance and grilling of Special Counsel Jack Smith on the alleged federal crimes of Donald Trump was more spectacle than illumination.
On some level, it was the most recent replay of the most familiar confrontations by defenders of Trump over political justice against those who believe that Trump was subject to the same law as everyone else.
It was the first public chance to hear what Smith had to bring to a judge and jury to demonstrate that Trump broke criminal law, though it became more a defense of how Smith conducted his investigation.
The public theater that unfolded before the House Judiciary Committee followed months of partisan negotiation, private questioning of Smith, and seemingly endless attempts to undercut and threaten the special counsel for holding Trump's behavior against criminal law in two cases arising from the January 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection attempt and the taking and obstruction of classified documents.
Both cases were halted when Trump was elected a second time to the White House.
Congressional Republicans took their task to be protection of Trump's legacy and, indeed, backed Trump's insistence that Smith is a criminal who should be jailed. The hope was to catch Smith in a legal snag that might result in a perjury charge. Along the way, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, threw in the House Select Committee on January 6 proceedings, campaign statements, and previous investigations of Trump as if they were part of what Smith would have presented in court.
Democrats saw their job as encouraging Smith to lay out the evidence that fueled his prosecution case. If one could separate the politics — an impossibility — there was something quite normal going on: examination of a special counsel's final report. Their openly political point clearly was to highlight deeds that without immunity, without status, and without pardon would be found criminal.
From a substantive point of view, the outcome was already known. The Judiciary Committee's private grilling did nothing to derail or undercut Smith's presentation and evidence, and the fiercest questions were not about evidence, but about politics around the case. This was not about judicial guilt, just political blame.
Aggressive Questioning
From the first, it was clear that this was not a Trump trial on evidence. Rather, it was a debate about image and an aggressive attempt to find fault with Smith and a politically "weaponized" Justice Department in pursuit of politician Trump.
For his part, Smith said that letting January 6 pass without legal accountability would invite more problems with elections and endanger democracy as we have known it.
Smith insisted on being seen as non-political by people who only see partisanship in every issue that comes to Congress. As always in these hearings, congressmen are doing more talking than necessary in hopes of self-promotion over learning the strength of the evidence against Trump in two criminal proceedings.
To the degree that January 6-related matters arose, Republicans cherry-picked the possible inclusion of witnesses including Cassidy Hutchinson, whom Smith was not claiming as primary witnesses, or the phone records that included logs of congressional phones. Indeed, it was only the order of U.S. Judge Aileen Cannon in Florida that kept a cap on the details of the classified documents case, although she has long since declared the case dead.
For Smith himself, the point was to defend his prosecution effort as within Justice Department standards and rules. He stood by his decisions to bring charges, to subpoena records — including the telephone logs of Republican senators — and to defend those who worked on these cases from vowed retribution from Trump and the Justice Department.
Throughout, Smith maintained a cool, calm, lawyerly demeanor — perhaps more understated than necessary. He had plenty of evidence to share and the composure not to fall into word traps. In tone, some Republican questioners were far testier. After hearing an answer he did not like, Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., said, "I yield back in disgust of this witness."
Though he was spending the day in international diplomacy, Trump himself found time to tune into the hearings and offer commentary, posting: "Jack Smith is a deranged animal, who shouldn't be allowed to practice law. If he were a Republican, his license would be taken away from him, and far worse!"
Missing: The Trial
What we saw was unfocused partisan feints and defenses about process, not a systematic review of the evidence.
It's what we see in so many other unrelated public debates in Washington, from the practical fallout over what we are or are not learning from the Jeffrey Epstein files to substantive argument about whether sinking alleged drug-smuggling boats is considered legally valid.
We're missing the actual trial, where evidence and not political froth, no matter how intense, governs the day. We're missing the review of whatever was learned in Smith's 165-page indictment document that laid out the January 6 case or the equivalent documentation from the classified documents case.
Arguing about whether Trump was unduly targeted doesn't resolve whether the underlying materials leading to the now-dismissed indictments ever would pass review by citizen juries.
What Republican majority members chose to ignore was extensive testimony, much from Republican associates of Trump, about events leading to January 6, about Trump's incitement before the rioting and his silence as a Trump mob rioted, and about whether the whole matter was part of a scheme to keep Trump in office despite an election loss.
Likewise, the questions did not want to address testimony about extended refusal to turn over classified documents and the efforts to move them to keep them hidden while asserting that the "raid" on Mar-a-Lago was actually the serving of a judicially approved search warrant.
Our reality is that we have a president who is a convicted felon who escaped prosecution for more crimes only because of his reelection.
How Trump turned a world summit into a weird personal grievance session
It was almost as disturbingly painful to watch Donald Trump publicly insulting our allies yesterday and demanding ownership of Greenland as it was to experience his rambling, ego-centric, error-filled and self-serving address.
"It's a small ask," Trump dismissingly insisted for decades of carrying an ungrateful Europe, Canada and western powers. The Davos gathering of leaders usually focuses on economics, but U.S. bullyism pushed other topics aside.
And then, suddenly, Trump posted that after a single conversation with Mark Rutte, head of NATO, he was calling off his tariff war with Europe – and maybe backing off ownership altogether because they had discussed an undescribed "framework" about the Arctic Circle.
It ended a baffling day with high confusion and emotion with dealing with an unpredictable Trump armed with the world's biggest military and trade arsenal.
Greenland seems a pawn, but Trump's demand for the spotlight was a diplomatic disaster.
A Weird Speech
Trump's unfocused remarks several times confused Iceland with Greenland, attacked immigration in Europe as well as the United States, and broadly swiped treaty friends over decades for "taking advantage" or "screwing" this country in trade, defense and culture.
It mixed future threats with past retributions, equated treaty concerns with his obsession with losing to Joe Biden more than five years ago, dismissed the value of the NATO alliance, insisting that only he can see the world as it should be seen.
It was, as one television head noted, a serial takedown of every U.S. ally personally and diplomatically. Though the speech itself did not go beyond what he has said publicly, its belligerent tone and grating insults may light a global split that may not be reparable, well beyond any political change in the next election or beyond. Its inability to provide clear focus simply left listeners baffled about his seriousness or agenda beyond power and control.
The only bright note was a Trump acknowledgement that the United States would not use military force to grab Greenland – but would relaunch a global trade law based on tariffs policy that are before the U.S. Supreme Court to consider as being unconstitutional.
If Trump musings were not seen as so critical, the appearance in Davos with global leaders could have been the Superbowl for fact-checkers. His remarks cherry-picked economic numbers, glossed over legalities, and rewrote domestic and international history.
Rambling Insults
For more than an hour, global leaders listened with chagrin and building anger as Trump rambled through a speech that sounded much more ad lib than written. The personal nature of the insults guarantee that Trump will have difficulty getting cooperation when it is needed.
As Trump talked punishing Europe with new tariffs over Greenland, the European Parliament suspended the approval of the trade deal that the EU and U.S. agreed in July, though voted narrowly to delay a new major trade deal between the European Union and four South American countries to build on an economic path that works around the U.S. Canada is talking with China about broadened markets. It's now all suddenly unclear anew.
Trump said Greenland is "a piece of ice, cold and poorly located" that Denmark cannot afford. When he did not confuse Greenland and Iceland, Trump talked about its strategic value for national and international security – though never explained why "ownership" is required from an ally. Despite Trump's belief that climate change and global warming is a hoax, the start of melting of the permafrost in the Arctic Circle makes emerging access to minerals and natural resources a much more understandable Trump target.
Meanwhile, of course, if Trump is really worried about Russia and China aggressions, as he says, the Russian invasion of Ukraine presents a much more prescient conflict. But Trump has basically withdrawn much of U.S. support for Ukraine and has unduly pressured Ukraine to cede territory to Russia. Russia is attacking the civilian population across Ukraine with attacks on utilities to keep the country without electricity, heat and water.
Rewritten World History
Trump overlooks both international agreements and domestic treaty agreements signed by the Senate that grant Greenland sovereign status. He also overlooks that the U.S. has a big military base there, and an open invitation to add more troops or mining investments.
Trump has rewritten the circumstances in which the U.S. "gave back" Greenland to Denmark.
Trump preferred a message that other countries are dependent on the United States, adding, essentially, that they need to reward and pay for that privilege.
Trump has rewritten history to say the United States saved Europe in World War II. Trump insisted that NATO has never repaid the U.S. for its support over years – ignoring that the only time NATO responded to its Article V cooperative military protections was after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in New York and Washington. Canada, for example, "lives because of the United States," Trump said. His attacks on Somalis and European immigration were openly racist.
Overall, his contemptuous messaging seemed to affirm international fears that the U.S. is willing to forgo treaty allies and partnerships for territorial expansion and power grabs.
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As Americans wait fearfully to see if they'll get their Social Security
Rather than reflect any caution from outcries over cutbacks in service, long applicant waits and fear already affecting Social Security recipients, the Trump administration apparently is pressing for more speed in making changes.
Under temporary head Leland Dudek, formerly a mid-level fraud analyst, the agency has shut four of 10 field offices, and, according to a sourced Axios.com report, “is rushing cuts to phone services at the White House’s request, Dudek told a Social Security advocacy group. Weirdly, Dudek also says he is trying to streamline service, even as complaints soar.
Meanwhile, the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday held a confirmation hearing for Wall Street financial services executive Frank Bisignano, Trump’s nominee to head the suddenly struggling agency.
The story at Social Security is one that seems to typify this Trump administration. An agency that seemed to be working well to deliver services to 73 million Americans was targeted by Elon Musk’s cost-cutting operation. Despite disparaging remarks about Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme,” Musk has failed to identify substantial amounts of waste, fraud and abuse, and so has turned to eliminate customer service and field offices.
The Washington Post catalogued some of the most immediate practical effects, but overall, the changes are happening so quickly that the biggest side effect is confusion and fear among the senior and disabled clientele the agency is supposed to serve. Basically, the Post suggests that Social Security is breaking down — with more to come.
Bisignano, the nominee, told senators that he was a DOGE fan, and wanted to pursue turning customer service into artificial intelligence-driven machinery — likely not a good fit for the targeted population of seniors and people with disabilities, or those away from city centers or stuck in nursing or residential homes. Bisignano offered a “guarantee” he would not seek to privatize the program.
More to the point, Trump himself keeps insisting that Social Security and medical benefits will not be touched — they generally are set by Congress, not the White House — even as the obvious chaos they are causing suggest that the agency is imploding over job and service losses.
Longer Waits, Fearful Calls
The Post has sought to list practical effects, including the immediate increase in waiting in lines, waiting for calls, and the crashing of Social Security Administration websites four time in 10 days this month. The promise to end phone services requires web access for issues, status changes and questions that often are difficult to fit into the available categories or physical visits to field offices that are being consolidated.
Among their findings:
–Office managers are now answering the phones at field offices because 12% of the 57,000 workers have been dismissed, and more are fleeing voluntarily. Depending on the time of day, a recorded message tells callers that their wait on hold will last more than 120 minutes or 180 minutes. Some report being on hold for four or five hours. Previous call waits were up to 50 minutes.
–A callback function was only available three out of 12 times when a reporter called the toll-free line.
— Complicated benefits cases are falling by the wayside, workers are reporting. Online claims, which are completed by field staff, are backed up.
–The return-to-office orders for employees do not provide workspace or parking for all employees.
–AARP, the nonprofit senior group, is receiving double its usual inquiries.
–The jam of phone calls before service is shut is encouraging a flood of Social Security scammers, according to internal agency emails shared. Scammers are asking recipients to verify their identity to keep receiving benefits.
–The office to measure effectiveness of consumer response has been eliminated.
Taken together, the cuts may not be intended to affect benefits, but they are affecting the ability of people to apply effectively or to make necessary adjustments for bank account confirmations or personal circumstances.
The people — or machines — creating government forms and web pages always think they are clear; let’s face it, they’re not able to anticipate even the normal set of confusions or complications that arise in families, work separations, relationships and even addresses and names that change over time, to say nothing of differing language abilities., To get Medicare or Medicaid coverage, for example, you need Social Service clearance first. Getting through such a process rarely involved a single contact with the agency.
Building a hand-off benefits system that assumes everything works the first time without human intervention is, um, unrealistic.
Is This What Trump Wants?
What happens to Social Security in the next couple of weeks will also befall the U.S. Postal Service and other service-heavy departments like Veterans’ Affairs. Just yesterday, Trump moved the handling of student loans from the Education Department to the Small Business Administration, whose 6,500-member staff is being cut by 2,700 and has no familiarity with the issues that have arisen over student loans.
A sizeable chunk of the phone calls currently flooding Social Security concern fears about continuing benefits.
What exactly does Trump envision for Social Security besides this errant search for fraud? If Trump and congressional Republicans really want to eliminate the Social Security system for a privatized version, they ought to bring on that discussion rather than cut customer service and phone access to the agency. It is just angering their potential voters and spreading fear.
If there is a better system — like Trump’s always alternative to Obamacare that never appears — they should be debating it in the open.
Despite the big overall numbers, Social Security has been underfunded for years and faces potential insolvency in a decade. It has had four commissioners in five months — just one of them Senate-confirmed. Last week, Dudek threatened to shut down operations in response to a federal judge’s ruling that Dudek claimed would leave no one with access to beneficiaries’ personal information to serve them. Musk’s DOGE team has access to private data of millions of Americans on projects never discussed in public.
As always, the question: Where’s the plan?
NOW READ: Dear GOP: America is not going to forget — and many Americans will never forgive
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- Trump Cabinet official doubts seniors would be upset over missed Social Security payments ›
- 'Defend Social Security': Maddow calls attention to campaign to stop Trump admin - Alternet.org ›
- 'Shocking': Social Security callers wait hours before being 'disconnected with no warning' - Alternet.org ›
Just what about Jan. 6 was ‘legitimate political discourse’?
That description was meant to sideswipe Representatives Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Adam Kitzinger (R-Ill.) for joining the select House committee to investigate who brought about “discourse” that saw thousands of Donald Trump fans breaking into the Capitol, threatening leaders, and resulting in deaths and injuries.
Politically, it is understandable, if disappointing, that the RNC wants to slap the pair for breaching what they see as a need to offer only unyielding defense of Trump’s continuing wails about losing the 2020 election. The rest of us see a kind of bravery in their decision to find out why Jan. 6 came about.
You might as well call Afghanistan an underrated tourist spot or suggest that North Korea is doing interesting engineering studies by launching test nuclear weapons.
But to call what is emerging and extensive coup plot as “legitimate political discourse” is just nuts. Apparently, even the RNC saw the need to clarify that language, saying it was never meant to apply to MAGA rioters who violently stormed the Capitol. But by omission, it was okay to call plotting to overthrow the Constitution and democratic elections “legitimate”? It was legit to plan and coordinate such a riot? It was okay to use the military to seize voting machines and file fake elector slates? It was all right to involve Republican congress members in a plan to overturn Electoral Votes?
Just what here is “legitimate political discourse”?
You might as well call Afghanistan an underrated tourist spot or suggest that North Korea is doing interesting engineering studies by launching test nuclear weapons.
I checked the right-leaning websites to see how they treated this formal arrival of doublespeak. Breitbart, Newsmax, OANN, which have all given extensive coverage to election-rigging claims and voice to those who decry investigation, all carried accounts of the voice vote to censure Cheney and Kinzinger but did not dwell on or explore the re-labeling of Jan. 6 as “legitimate.”
An Ever-Spreading Plot
There now are so many coup plot line investigations afoot that the public hearings planned by the House committee are being delayed another couple of months.
On Friday, we saw even former Vice President Mike Pence publicly rebuke Trump as “wrong” in asserting that Pence could have overturned the election result. We heard more partial reports from now multiple investigations that put Trump at the center of a web of plans to send fake electors to Congress, to illegally consider using the military or other federal agencies to grab voting machines, to demand National Security Administration actions to find election fraud.
Taken together, the picture emerging is that election fraud manufacture was the only business being done in the White House.
Friday’s vote was dramatically different in tone from a statement the Republican National Committee released the day of the attack, when it said, “these violent scenes we have witnessed do not represent acts of patriotism, but an attack on our country and its founding principles.”
But, as we all painfully know, Trump makes it his business every day to insist that we all need to justify any action that would put him back in the White House – even as polling is beginning to show some cracks in his political base.
It’s all so inside-out that we need to stop periodically to remind ourselves what we all witnessed after November 2020 and through to the violence of Jan. 6. Thousands of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol that day, smashing windows, assaulting police officers and sending lawmakers and then-Vice President Mike Pence running for their lives.
That has led to this summary from Ronna McDaniel, RNC chairwoman: “Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger crossed a line. They chose to join Nancy Pelosi in a Democrat-led persecution of ordinary citizens who engaged in legitimate political discourse that had nothing to do with violence at the Capitol.”
Say what?
What’s Important
Look, let the RNC eat its own and issue its self-serving censure, itself apparently the result of intra-party negotiation over whether to expel Cheney and Kinzinger from their congressional caucus altogether. Cheney already faces a problematic re-election, and Kinzinger won’t run again anyway.
What’s more important here is that this is an attempt to minimize what happened on Jan. 6 and to keep alive as legitimate the still-baseless claims of widespread election fraud. In pursuit of those claims, states with Republican-majority legislatures are flooding us with laws to restrict voting in one fashion or another, but always affecting Democratic areas with concentrations of voters of color.
Amid the issues stemming from Covid, economy, international war and peace, Republicans apparently want the top-line concern to be a replay of an election more than a year old. As The Times summarized, “In approving [the censure resolution] and opting to punish two of its own, Republicans seemed to embrace a position that many of them have only hinted at: that the assault and the actions that preceded it were acceptable.”
It meshes perfectly with new promises from Trump himself, that if re-elected in 2024, he would consider pardons for those convicted in the Jan. 6 attack.
No problem ever gets resolved without acknowledging what went wrong, nor can there be any effective solution. Censuring, expelling, slapping two Republicans for taking part in a committee to ask questions doesn’t dismiss the extraordinary plot that apparently was under way to overturn our government.
Suddenly calling an insurrection-fueled riot at the Capitol “legitimate political discourse” doesn’t make it so.
Florida’s snowflakes can’t handle the state’s vile racial history
We finally have a bill about feelings.
Set aside decisions about building infrastructure and fixing bridges or creating pre-kindergarten or considering sheltering the homeless or even preserving voting rights – things governments might do either federally or locally to deal with social problems.
This one is about the preservation of emotions.
A bill gained the approval of the Florida Senate Education Committee this week that seeks to bar public schools or workplaces from making people feel “discomfort” or “guilt” about their race during lessons or training focused on inequality.
The bill doesn’t really lay out what happens if a white Christian majority has teachings that prompt discomfort to Jews, Muslims, Blacks, Latinx, Asian Americans, LBGTQ or transgender students and parents.
It is unclear what exactly would happen if someone feels discomfort or guilt or how this bill’s effects would be measured or enforced.
As a columnist for MSNBC wrote: Senate Bill 148, “which should really be called the ‘sad white people bill.’ [would] effectively codify white fragility into law” though it never mentions individual races or backgrounds.
Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has endorsed the bill, which includes several provisions outlined in his Stop the Wrongs to Our Kids and Employees Act or Stop W.O.K.E., a purported ban on critical race theory that was introduced last month in the state legislature.
Of course, as has been pointed out repeatedly, Critical Race Theory is a college-level area of study not taught in K-12 schools. Nevertheless, the label has been adopted by conservative governors, school board members and parents who object to any teaching that suggests that racism and residual effects of slavery, Jim Crow and segregation are alive and well in these United States.
Funny, the bill doesn’t really lay out what happens if a white Christian majority has teachings that prompt discomfort to Jews, Muslims, Blacks, Latinx, Asian Americans, LBGTQ or transgender students and parents.
Reacting to Critical Race Theory

“Critical Race Theory” has become a rallying cry making the rounds in elections and politics, particularly since The New York Times published its 1619 Project last year aiming to reframe the country’s history by placing the consequences of slavery.
As Education Week explains, “The events of the last decade have increased public awareness about things like housing segregation, the impacts of criminal justice policy in the 1990s, and the legacy of enslavement on Black Americans. But there is much less consensus on what the government’s role should be in righting these past wrongs. Add children and schooling into the mix and the debate becomes especially volatile.”
Like similar efforts to block the specific teaching of critical race theory, now comes the Florida legislation to alter how history is taught, seeking to tamp down suggestions that current-day white majority populations have any responsibility for whatever slavery sins forebears committed.
What’s different here is that this is a bill about feelings: “An individual, by virtue of his or her race or sex, does not bear responsibility for actions committed in the past by other members of the same race or sex,” the bill states. “An individual should not be made to feel discomfort, guilt, anguish, or any other form of psychological distress on account of his or her race.”
Lessons about racism or sexism are allowed, but only if they meet the specific inclusions or deletions outlined in the bill – basically statements that the bill suggests will not offend anyone. School or professional instructors can use lesson plans “to address, in an age-appropriate manner, the topics of sexism, slavery, racial oppression, racial segregation, and racial discrimination,” according to the bill. But “classroom instruction and curriculum may not be used to indoctrinate or persuade students to a particular point of view inconsistent with the principles of this subsection or state academic standards,” it states.
The governor explains: “In Florida, we are taking a stand against the state-sanctioned racism that is critical race theory. We won’t allow Florida tax dollars to be spent teaching kids to hate our country or to hate each other. The WOKE Act extends similar means “to protect Florida workers against the hostile work environment that is created when large corporations force their employees to endure CRT-inspired ‘training’ and indoctrination.”
The Bill and Feelings
You can read through Senate Bill 148: It promotes teaching of history and content of the Declaration of Independence, equality of all persons, inalienable rights of life, liberty and property, the Federalist papers and flag education. It includes education about the Holocaust and about slavery, adding that teaching must include that no race is superior to others or inherently racist, sexist or oppressive.
Oddly, it strikes language about mental health from the list of health topics and retains the rights of parents to exempt students from some health topics touching on sex.
This particular bill does not address library books, as in some states, but does repeat the rights of parents to raise challenges.
The governor argues that this bill would build on existing rules that are part of the Florida administrative code. They specifically state that teachings based on CRT, saying, instruction on the required topics must be factual and objective, and may not suppress or distort significant historical events. He offered a curated list of incidents nationally in which he argues the spirit of critical race theory is coloring lessons in school and workplace trainings.
A much different reading is offered by a strident MSNBC columnist Ja’han Jones who argues, “Educating people about the inhumane ways white people positioned themselves atop America’s social hierarchy is a direct threat to the racist power structure. White people are most likely to feel discomforted by these lessons. . . it’s clear that the Florida bill is designed to coddle white people, even though it doesn’t mention them specifically.
The columnist adds, “So, to clarify: Florida conservatives are prioritizing white hypersensitivity over truthful teachings. They’re apparently saying lessons about America’s racist and sexist past are acceptable only if they don’t offend white people.”
A realistic snapshot of America today would reflect lots of race problems, and substantial frustration arising from them in multiple directions.
What I hadn’t really seen was a bill directed at feelings rather than acts. If feelings are the new measure, one might imagine a wholesale remake of our laws.
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The Jan. 6 committee fillets the contemptuous Mark Meadows
It has never been clear how effective a chief of staff Mark Meadows proved to be for Donald Trump. Trump always has been too concerned with self over governing. But it was clear in hearing out the Jan. 6 committee that Meadows came across to that group as a willful buffoon.
The Jan. 6 Select Congressional Committee dramatically dispatched Meadows last night with a recommended 9-0 contempt of Congress vote. It was as dripping in scorn and disappointment for a former colleague’s disrespect to the House as it was filled with questions that go well beyond his failure to testify.
It seems certain that Meadows is headed for a full House contempt vote, which could come as early as Tuesday, and recommended prosecution for refusing to answer his subpoena, as with Trump adviser Steve Bannon. But the case against Meadows suggests actual criminal complicity in a conspiracy to overthrow the government through the subversion of electoral votes.
Republicans and Democrats on the panel made clear that the contempt they felt for a former colleague reflected personal contempt as well as the more official sort.
The committee, with seven Democrats and two Republicans, openly mocked Meadows’ claims of executive privilege clearly thrust upon him by Trump. Meadows already had turned over 9,000 emails, texts, phone calls and records to the panel; he has published and promoted a book purporting to discuss exact topics for which the committee has questions; he took part in television interviews in which he covered similar ground in political cover for his former boss.
Indeed, after the committee had disclosed that the documents included in a Jan. 5 email which, per the White House, said the National Guard was on standby to “protect pro-Trump people.” Anyone following the inquiries into the insurrection attempt would have serious questions about Meadows’ knowledge of events leading to it.
Meadows, Filleted
Before television cameras, the Republicans and Democrats on
the panel made clear that the contempt they felt for a former colleague reflected personal contempt as well as the more official sort. For years, Meadows, former ranking member of the Government and Operations Committee and leader of the House Freedom Caucus until taking over as Trump’s top counselor, was strident in calling out members of the Barack Obama administration who did not satisfy his own subpoenas and questions.
At this hearing, committee members placed Meadows in a central position in dealing with other unnamed Republican Congress members to derail the Jan. 6 election certification; in repeated meetings with conspiracists aiming to overthrow the election results; and as a go-between among Congress members under siege, Trump family members and Trump himself as the Jan. 6 violence continued to play out.
As The Times noted, according to dozens of text messages that members of the panel read aloud, Meadows fielded requests from terrified lawmakers and even members of Trump’s family begging for Meadows to persuade Trump to call off the rioters.
Others noted that he was neck-deep in attempts to overturn election results. He traveled to Georgia on Trump’s behalf before that phone call in which Trump asked the secretary of state to “find” sufficient votes to change the outcome. The committee report detailed communications showing that Meadows met with and coordinated information in a 38-page PowerPoint on how state delegations, Congress members and Vice President Mike Pence could stop the certification by ordering martial law and tossing votes; and he coordinated with Jan. 6 rally organizers.
Even at best, executive privilege is not a blank check to refuse a House subpoena particularly to answer a whole lot of questions that fall outside any direct advisory communications with Trump. For that matter, we’re seeing the same refusal attitude extending now to former trade representative Peter Navarro before a different committee looking at Covid policies.
Meadows, Absent
All there was on the other side was ordered silence – and a legal lawsuit that the subpoena was overly broad. But, to anyone listening to the hearing, the committee’s questions all sounded, well, reasonable.
Of course, the missing link here is Trump himself, who is stopping anyone from testifying whose recollections might show him in an unfavorable light. As I have argued previously, if Trump believes in his own legal cause, it is maddening that he doesn’t stand up and testify proudly about his actions before, during and since.
It all would be absurd if it were not so deadly serious.
Jan 6 was a symptom, not the disease itself. We’re watching our election and voting rights, our democracy itself under continuing attack by a populism that demands authoritarianism – and a Donald Trump who wants to return to don that monarchial crown.
Trump’s PowerPoint coup plotters were crackpots, argues Washington Post columnist Dana Milbank, who adds, “We may not be so lucky next time.”
The hearing itself was only 45 minutes, an effective round-robin of congressional outrage that left only one question: Where is the Justice Department’s parallel investigation of those who led and planned the overthrow of our government?
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Breaking down the mangled history of mainstream media and the Steele dossier
The reason for reconsideration about what was said at the time is the recent indictment of Igor Danchenko, a Russian analyst facing charges of lying to the FBI over information he supplied for the dossier by former British intelligence Christopher Steele and the FBI that was used as justification for initial inquiries into the all-things-Russia links with the Donald Trump 2016 campaign.
The 39-page grand jury indictment of Danchenko for making false statements was the result of more than two years of investigation by a special counsel, John H. Durham. The indictment – there has been no trial yet – is being hailed among conservatives as definitive in defending Trump from any eventual conclusions about the degree to which The Former Guy colluded, cooperated or otherwise was open to arrangements with the Russians.
So, this week, just as the media herd had flocked to the story of the Steele dossier, now the media, herd-like, is taking a step back.
Nevertheless, besides any overreach by the FBI, there are two essential truths here: First, press outlets have been careful throughout to say that large portions of the dossier have remained unverified. And second, the case outlined by Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III outlined lots of contact and arrangements among the Trump campaign and transition team members and Russian operatives.
Adjusting Archived Articles
The Washington Post, Politico and others are adjusting stories in their electronic files to reflect yet more doubt on references to the Steele dossier, first published by BuzzFeed in January 2017. These include rewrites to show new questions or newly created omissions in already published stories to fit with new information.
The dossier contained a range of allegations about candidate Trump that were picked up and amplified in news reports, talk shows and social media.
Steele himself last month offered interviews defending his 17-memo compilation — paid for first by Republican, then-Democratic political opponents of Trump—as apolitical. Last year, Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz found errors in the FBI review of data and its use in obtaining special wiretapping authority for a Trump associate. One FBI lawyer pleaded guilty to a criminal charge.
Former Attorney General William P. Barr appointed Durham to lead a wider investigation into the origins of the Russia connections. That inquiry has produced little until this recent indictment.
How the media acted in all this is now the new focus in articles in:
- Politico, where press critic Jack Schafer discusses media transparency
- The Washington Post, where media critic Eric Wemple has extensively looked at media coverage of the Steele dossier over time
- The New York Times opinion essays, where Bill Grueskin, a Columbia journalism professor, considers the herd response of a too-believing media
- Also, columnist Bret Stephens, an avowed conservative thinker, finds consistent fault with both the FBI and the media for lack of questions.
Most of the important claims in the dossier have not been proven, and some have been refuted.
But No Exoneration
Still, Wemple, among others, conclude that just because all that Steele gathered, including the notorious reports of a Trump pee tape, didn't pan out didn't mean that there wasn't plenty of fishy Russian business during the 2016 presidential campaign.
Despite all the Trump and Republican denials – containing lies and misstatements themselves, the Mueller Report detailed multiple instances of what would constitute bad, even potentially criminal behavior in that presidential campaign and the weeks following the 2016 election.
Trump has never disowned his special regard for Russian leader Vladimir Putin and went to great lengths to align U.S. policies with what have comported well with Russian outlooks over a weakened NATO, concessions in the Middle East and a view toward international chaos that has advanced Russian interests. The Trump position, simply stated, remains all about himself, about America First thinking and disowning leadership in international cooperation.
For the media, the questions raised in the various essays over the dossier are about this industry's responsibility toward rigor and about accountability when there are errors. As columnist Schafer notes, accountability requires journalists to show how their work was flawed if they choose to correct or retract. The current archive changes instead rely on rewriting historical articles to reflect more current doubt – an endless process for sure if applied to all errors with political overtones.
If Danchenko is convicted of lying to Steele and then to the FBI, we must accept that sourcing media stories to those lies creates problems over just what to believe went on in the past. But even without those lies, we should not forget that the Muller Report outlined serious abuses, whether called collusion or cooperation, between an election campaign and a foreign foe.
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This is why a conservative Supreme Court is bad for America
The real disappointing impact of the Supreme Court decision upholding Arizona's voting restriction laws will be in the ripples, of course.
The two specific practices that the Supreme Court ruled as constitutional, overturning both the appeals court and district court that heard the challenge, will likely not change election outcomes in Arizona or other states, but the chill emanating from this case will encourage Republican-led states to crack down faster and harder on limits seen as aimed at minority, Democratic voters.
As The New York Times noted, "The decision suggested that the Supreme Court would not be inclined to strike down many of the measures" now spreading among states with Republican legislative majorities.
Legally, the importance of the decision is further eroding the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and shielding those seeking to make voting harder for minorities in the driver's seat.
Congratulations go to Donald Trump, proponents of the Big Steal, and a compliant Supreme Court bound either by its thinking of its conservative majority or over a reluctance to challenge states' rights. In any case, it has immediately become more difficult to put together challenges to any restrictive voting law.
From a racial viewpoint, the big hit to the Voting Rights Bill had come in 2013, in Shelby County v. Holder, which overturned the law's Section 5 requiring prior federal approval of changes to voting procedures in parts of the country with a history of racial discrimination. But Section 2 had still allowed challenges after the fact.
Narrowing the Focus
This decision involved two kinds of voting restrictions in Arizona. One required election officials to discard ballots cast at the wrong precinct. The other made it a crime for campaign workers, community activists and most other people to collect ballots for delivery to polling places, a practice critics call "ballot harvesting." The law made exceptions for family members, caregivers and election officials.
Lower courts found that there was evidence to show that limits would affect Black and Brown voters more than Whites. The Supreme Court decided the opposite way, 6-3, voted along its own conservative-liberal split. It can only be a signal to Republican legislatures that there is no legal way to support more challenges to suppression laws.
Now, Congress is making clear that it cannot pass a necessarily bipartisan bill to keep these voter restrictions from spreading. By defining the issue before it so literal and legally narrow, Supreme Court justices are making clear that had the Congress passed such a bill, they would have been open to challenging the law rather considering Republican bad campaign practices.
What the Court apparently did not consider is how voting restrictions affect living while Black in America.
The decision, written by Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., argued that the system in Arizona offers ample opportunity for everyone to vote, even if it seems to fall heavier on some people, and concluded that the state's interest in preventing voter fraud outweighs whatever overall disparate impact the law has.
As a Washington Post columnist noted, "The fact that voter fraud is almost entirely fictional did not disturb the justice."
Building a Pattern
Instead, the Court is following a map of reducing laws meant to maintain voting by all.
In 2010, the justices said corporations have the right to use their billions to influence elections. Since 2010, the Court has killed a public financing law meant to allow candidates relying on small donations to compete with self-financed millionaires and billionaires, squashed the heart of the Voting Rights Act, claiming it was no longer necessary because racism is pretty much over, upheld voter purges that disenfranchise thousands of voters and ruled that partisan gerrymandering, no matter how clearly it disenfranchises people, is beyond the ability of the courts to do anything about.
It is now accepted Republican outlook that if elections were fair, they would lose, we need new laws that tilt those states that accept the challenge to tilt the rules to make "voting more cumbersome, inconvenient and difficult, all aimed directly at populations they believe are more likely to vote for Democrats," argued that Post columnist.
On the same day, the Supreme Court decided by the same 6-3 line-up that California legally could not require charities soliciting contributions in the state to report the identities of their major donors. That requirement had drawn a challenge by Americans for Prosperity Foundation, a group affiliated with the Koch family, and the Thomas More Law Center, a conservative Christian public-interest law firm. They said it violated the First Amendment's protection of the freedom of association by subjecting donors to possible harassment by making the information public.
Again, the court is protecting conservative Republicans seeking to influence public elections. And, again, the court is ignoring the role that dark money plays in elections.
Just curious that these are all rulings by justices labeled as conservative.
Noting originalist here.
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Crime looms large in the race to run the Big Apple
New York City's mayoral election is a one of a kind, one that draws more than its share of identifying Democrats both as candidates and voters. Candidates want to run a city that has held what the nation would adjudge to be generally progressive social views.
In a city where a steady hand toward small business recovery, homelessness, public transit, education and housing availability ought to dominate the airwaves two weeks out from the end of voting, crime is the hot topic.
How the city assures public safety is more complicated and nuanced than slogans and sound bites allow. Crime may not be the real issue.
Arguments in commercials, debates and social media home in on crime along with coverage that tries to elevate local crime reports into national questions. Various politicians, parties and -isms are seeking to make this election a wider referendum, pitting "defund police" believers against Back the Blue supporters.
"Fear of crime is back as a political issue in New York City. For the first time in years it could be a prime factor in who voters pick as their next mayor," The Associated Press reported matter of factly.
The lead in this contest is difficult to assess because of the number of candidates and the first-time use of a multi-choice ballot. Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams seems to be ahead. He is a former NYPD captain, who spouts rhetoric about more targeted policing without a lot of specifics.
Several other candidates teeter in agreement to "get guns off the streets," while still trying to adhere to anti-stop-and-frisk thinking.
Of all of them, Maya Wiley, a former legal adviser to current mayor Bill de Blasio and once head of the civilian oversight police board, is most aggressive about looking anew at how police funds are spent.
It has become a slow-rolling sound-bite debate—as if there are only two choices and as if crime is the most important issue facing the city.
Without assured public safety, the general debate goes, we will not see the city fully rebounding from the pandemic.
How the city assures public safety is more complicated and nuanced than slogans and sound bites allow. Crime may not be the real issue.
Crime or Mental Health?
Yes, there is more crime in New York today than a year ago. Of course, a year ago, everyone was locked in at home. Comparisons, particularly when measured by percentages, are skewed.
Year after year, the number of shootings is up. There were 687 injured and 181 homicides as compared with the same period in 2019 (which is described as a whopping 50% increase). By comparison with the 1990s, however, those figures are way down.
Many of the most common types of crime in the city, including robberies, burglaries and grand larcenies, remain near historic lows, AP and others acknowledge.
A few very public shootings, including errant bullets injuring a toddler in Times Square and the fear of random misdoings in the subway, have boosted the public perception of rising crime. A plurality of voters surveyed in a recent NY1/Ipsos poll chose "crime or violence" as the biggest problem facing New York, with racial injustice and police reform also in the top 10.
Police and neighborhood groups are working together to respond to increased reports of guns being delivered into the city by vanloads.
At the same time, the increase of mass shootings nationwide keeps us from accepting that local situations may differ. Through the first five months of 2021, gunfire killed more than 8,100 people in the United States, about 54 lives lost per day, according to a Washington Post analysis of data from the Gun Violence Archive, a nonprofit research organization. That's 14 more deaths per day than the average toll during the same period of the previous six years.
Of course, if we really accept that premise, it begs the question of why we don't do something about limiting guns.
In My Neighborhood
This week, my wife and I dialed into our lightly attended Harlem neighborhood Zoom conversation with two police officers assigned to community outreach. It reflected some of what is going on in a wider sense.
The complaints aired were not so much about crime, or violent crime, as they were about the effects of drugs and homelessness on the streets – incidents of public urination, a guy stripping down, people congregating under the myriad scaffolded areas and a specific corner near three methadone clinics where people from across the entire city seem to congregrate. There were issues of discomfort and feelings of fear, if not actual crime.
Police expressed willingness to respond but did point out that there may be no actual crime involved. There have been nearly 30 arrests at that particular corner for drug selling in recent weeks. But there is an experimental program rolling out in which emergency medical treatment officers are paired with mental health specialists to get those with emotional problems into treatment centers.
Reports of "crime" or bad acts generally have gotten worse with waning pandemic restrictions.
Indeed, the police note that their very presence prompts lingerers at the corner to move onto less-trafficked nearby streets – with further complaints from those residents.The targeted corner resulted from efforts a year ago to clean up a similar intersection a few blocks away.
On the city's Westside, there was a very public debate over the use of an underutilized hotel where the city had sent homeless men. The individuals did not stay inside all the time. Soon normally tolerant Westsiders were complaining mightily about ugly confrontations, thefts and public urination. The city moved the men involved.
Burden on Police
There are no NYPD-equivalent homelessness and mental illness counselors. None of the candidates for mayor is talking about adding thousands of trained personnel to deal with homeless and mental illness.
So the burden for dealing with the results is falling on police to respond or to add lighting or patrols. There is little talk about what to do to reduce the city's 8,900 scaffolds, which keep the homeless out of police view.
Instead, there is fear talk about crime and violence.
The Rev. Al Sharpton, civil rights leader and frequent speaker in the policing issues getting national attention, fully acknowledges that crime and homelessness are issues in the city. "It is not true that those of us that want police reform do not also at the same time want to deal with crime," he told reporters last week.
Candidate Wiley would cut the police budget by $1 billion annually "and invest those funds directly into the communities most impacted by gun violence." A Wiley campaign ad shows police driving into a crowd of Black Lives Matter protesters last year. She says in the ad that it's "time the NYPD sees us as people who deserve to breathe," a reference to the deaths of Eric Garner and George Floyd.
Candidate Scott Stringer, who calls himself a liberal, says he would cut at least $1 billion over four years through measures such as transferring mental health response to non-police crisis teams and reducing police overtime. Kathryn Garcia skips talking about the police budget but says officers' minimum age should be increased from 21 to 25 and new recruits should be required to live in the city. Andrew Yang backs a police residency requirement as well as beefed-up oversight of the department but rejects calls to defund the police.
Adams, an NYPD officer for 22 years talks of having been a victim of police brutality as a teenager. He rejects all calls for budget changes and wants more recruitment of officers of color and less racial profiling.
It's a lively debate, but perhaps unresponsive to what is prompting it.
Trump’s Supreme Court pick has a serious problem with the Constitution
Nomination of conservative Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court makes us think about the role of government in our lives and the Republican majority view of winning vs. fairness.
That her lifetime confirmation will change the direction of the Supreme Court for many years is a given, and, as it happens a sop toward Donald Trump's re-election efforts.
But what is there to learn here?
Here's the good news about nominee Barrett: There will be no nonsense about a woman as the nominee, and minimal attention on her choices about religion, lifestyle and what she wears. She will get the same black robe as the rest.
It finally is a choice that is about ideas and about visions of what we want as a nation – even if it comes as forced march by a Senate that has no time to deal with coronavirus aid.
Her professed allegiance to "originalism" in the law, the mostly conservative but often libertarian view that the original words of the Constitution and the law should suffice for modern challenges—a view she shares with the other recently named justices — is something we need to understand to chart the Court's future.
We can expect that originalism, for example, will become the substantial legal argument that will lead her to vote to overturn the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, over narrow interpretations of tax law, or to eliminate legal abortion as having been argued previously under the "wrong" section of the Constitution. It's not her particular brand of Catholicism that will drive her anti-abortion decision-making – though she is seriously anti-abortion as a person – but her insistence on interpreting the Constitution literally that will lead to the same place.
Barrett's Record
In her record as clerk, law professor and judge, there is evidence of far more – a tendency to view the Bill of Rights as anything but generous for life choices. Mark Joseph Stern, who writes about law for Slate, noted that in reading through all of her written decisions, what comes across is not conservatism as much as a certain meanness about the fate of the individual against business, institutions and government.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg saw the Bill of Rights and civil rights acts as generous guarantees of human dignity that must be read expansively to achieve their purpose. By contrast, Barrett's view of the law is fundamentally cruel. During her three years on the 7thCircuit Court of Appeals, Barrett either has written or joined a remarkable number of opinions that harm unpopular and powerless individuals who rely on the judiciary to safeguard their rights.
"Faced with two plausible readings of a law, fact, or precedent, Barrett always seems to choose the harsher, stingier interpretation. Can job applicants sue employers whose policies have a disproportionately deleterious impact on older people? Barrett said no. Should courts halt the deportation of an immigrant who faced torture at home? Barrett said no. Should they protect refugees denied asylum on the basis of xenophobic prejudice? Barrett said no. Should they shield prisoners from unjustified violence by correctional officers? Barrett said no. Should minors be allowed to terminate a pregnancy without telling their parents if a judge has found that they're mature enough to make the decision? Barrett said no. Should women be permitted to obtain an abortion upon discovering a severe fetal abnormality? Barrett said no."
Per her record, If the case is about religion or guns, Barrett is for the individual; if it is about abortion or gender, Barrett seems to forget about the individual.
Barrett has criticized Chief Justice John Roberts' decisions to uphold narrowly Obamacare, presumably in part out of a belief that the Court is in no position to simply strip 20 million Americans of health care. So, health care rather than abortion undoubtedly will be the key question that Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee find for focus – because Barrett is on the record. There is no Republican legislative remedy for this, and we will have yet more chaos in the midst of a pandemic – for the right to uphold a strict interpretation of Constitutional law.
From past decisions, it is clear that she will uphold the Trump steamroller to obliterate environmental regulations and to monitor labor grievances or regulate Wall Street.
Futile Confirmation Hearings?
With the votes already lined up, the idea of confirmation hearings seems almost futile. Nevertheless, it is a chance for us to feel as if we know what we will be getting into.
My question for Barrett is this: We get the originalism idea, but how does that concept allow us to pick and choose its way about protection of the individual?
I want to know how she matches the specifics of the law – and its legal precedents – with the realities we face in our country.
Do we believe in justice that advances individual rights? If so, why is religion a shield, and consumerist legislation not? Why is legislation that enables government to decide what constitutes marriage OK, and individual rights to health treatments not OK? Why are Americans to be afforded the right to assault weapons but not clean air? What is the role of actions to balance centuries of racial unfairness?
There is a certain sense that the approach is more important than a sense of "justice." These confirmation hearings always are a bit of a crapshoot since the judges won't really talk about their views. But an examination of their records should tell us about how they approach the job.
There will be attempts to ask about her affiliation with People of Praise, a religious group that until recently referred to its female leaders as "handmaids" ― evoking comparisons to Margaret Atwood's dystopian novel "The Handmaid's Tale." I hope they are set aside quickly – other than establishing that personal beliefs are no substitute for creating a legal precedent.
The Court is about to launch a revolution in exact opposition to the majority of its citizenry. We need to understand how we deal with that.

Trump apologist thinks president made ‘huge mistake’ by admitting he won’t peacefully give up power
Is there a Trump win in the Supreme Court mess even if confirmation of a replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg somehow is delayed?
There is a good argument that Donald Trump already got what he wants from the situation: No one is talking about COVID-19, 200,000 dead Americans on Trump's watch, millions still jobless or racial discord.
They're talking about whether Trump is going to pull off a nomination of a decades-long turn in national Supreme Court decision-making and state-sanctioned theft of the presidency in the November elections.
They are talking about him, Donald Trump, not the problems he has brought about in four years.
For a guy who measures victories in minutes won on television ratings, it sounds like Justice Ginsburg's tragic death has delivered Trump a public relations bonanza.
Others may worry about whether it is appropriate for a last-minute nomination to the court, or about the odds that just three or four Republican senators might recognize something like fairness or even about changing the court just as this election delivers a host of sticky, partisan, mechanical voting problems to the ourt.
By this logic, Trump shouldn't care. Of course, he'd undoubtedly like a third successful Supreme Court nomination to cap his four years before the election, but what he likely really wants is the attention on him as the kingmaker of the moment – free of any association with a contagious illness running out of control even as he leans on his own public health agencies to produce a string of positive, if scientifically incorrect, messages and crazy talk about the availability of 350 million coronavirus vaccines in the next 10 minutes.
Substance or politics?
You and I might want to talk about the real effects of a solidly conservative Supreme Court on issues that only start with abortion and immigration, but will extend to worker and consumer rights, fair enforcement of environmental rules and the nation's health systems. If this anticipated new court majority can reinterpret the thinking behind Roe v. Wade, as predicted, why not rethink same-sex marriage, the role of religion in the schools and workplace or about eliminating Congress' role in oversight of executive branch powers.
But for Trump, whose sole concern seems politics and re-election, this death is a happy moment of peace from virus and discord.
Indeed, the louder the voices of Americans demanding a say in the direction of the Supreme Court makeup, the better for Trump.
Why should Trump actually care whether the confirmation hearings and vote come before election day? His work is already about done: Trump just needs a name, and he's got a fistful, regardless of background.
Why should Trump care about whether Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has any trouble rounding up all the votes he needs at the tricky moment either before or after an election that may make McConnell the new Senate minority leader? Even if a confirmation vote should fail, Trump will be the guy who tried to deliver a generational change. He will look great to his base and won't be disliked any harder by opponents.
In the meantime, importantly, he won't be tagged with the multiple simultaneous contagions hitting our society. Trump just gained the political attention-grabbing moment he so craves.
The name, of course
There will be a lot of speculation until the name pops later this week at the White House.
Trump already played political card one by saying he will name a woman. Hmmm, where have we heard that promise before? Oh yes, it was opponent Joe Biden, who named Sen. Kamala Harris as vice president, the same Senator Harris who is on the Judiciary Committee who will now be questioning the candidate in confirmation hearings.
Among the potential candidates is Barbara Lagoa, 52, a Cuban-American judge from Florida, the state that Trump needs to win. She was named and confirmed in a rare bipartisan vote of 80-15 to the federal Court of Appeals 11th Circuit in 2019. Unlike some nominees from this administration, she has an extensive legal background and has been a judge in state and federal courts.
Her background and positions aside, for Trump, Lagoa's potential nomination would be a sure sign that this moment is about politics as much as about the direction of the Court. Among other things, Lagoa could become the second Latino justice, following current liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor, and a direct appeal to Latino voters.
Trump wants Florida, and he sees possibilities among Latino voters. Picking her would assure this is about politics.
It's not the right way to look at a generational change in the Supreme Court, but it does seem the Trump way of making sure this is all about him and re-election – and not about thousands of avoidable American deaths from coronavirus.
Here's why Trump is happy that Justice Ginsburg died
Is there a Trump win in the Supreme Court mess even if confirmation of a replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg somehow is delayed?
There is a good argument that Donald Trump already got what he wants from the situation: No one is talking about COVID-19, 200,000 dead Americans on Trump’s watch, millions still jobless or racial discord.
They’re talking about whether Trump is going to pull off a nomination of a decades-long turn in national Supreme Court decision-making and state-sanctioned theft of the presidency in the November elections.
They are talking about him, Donald Trump, not the problems he has brought about in four years.
For Trump, whose sole concern seems politics and re-election, this death is a happy moment of peace from virus and discord.
For a guy who measures victories in minutes won on television ratings, it sounds like Justice Ginsburg’s tragic death has delivered Trump a public relations bonanza.
Others may worry about whether it is appropriate for a last-minute nomination to the court, or about the odds that just three or four Republican senators might recognize something like fairness or even about changing the court just as this election delivers a host of sticky, partisan, mechanical voting problems to the ourt.
By this logic, Trump shouldn’t care. Of course, he’d undoubtedly like a third successful Supreme Court nomination to cap his four years before the election, but what he likely really wants is the attention on him as the kingmaker of the moment – free of any association with a contagious illness running out of control even as he leans on his own public health agencies to produce a string of positive, if scientifically incorrect, messages and crazy talk about the availability of 350 million coronavirus vaccines in the next 10 minutes.
Substance or Politics?
You and I might want to talk about the real effects of a solidly conservative Supreme Court on issues that only start with abortion and immigration, but will extend to worker and consumer rights, fair enforcement of environmental rules and the nation’s health systems. If this anticipated new court majority can reinterpret the thinking behind Roe v. Wade, as predicted, why not rethink same-sex marriage, the role of religion in the schools and workplace or about eliminating Congress’ role in oversight of executive branch powers.
But for Trump, whose sole concern seems politics and re-election, this death is a happy moment of peace from virus and discord.
Indeed, the louder the voices of Americans demanding a say in the direction of the Supreme Court makeup, the better for Trump.
Why should Trump actually care whether the confirmation hearings and vote come before election day? His work is already about done: Trump just needs a name, and he’s got a fistful, regardless of background.
Why should Trump care about whether Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has any trouble rounding up all the votes he needs at the tricky moment either before or after an election that may make McConnell the new Senate minority leader? Even if a confirmation vote should fail, Trump will be the guy who tried to deliver a generational change. He will look great to his base and won’t be disliked any harder by opponents.
In the meantime, importantly, he won’t be tagged with the multiple simultaneous contagions hitting our society. Trump just gained the political attention-grabbing moment he so craves.
The Name, of Course
There will be a lot of speculation until the name pops later this week at the White House.
Trump already played political card one by saying he will name a woman. Hmmm, where have we heard that promise before? Oh yes, it was opponent Joe Biden, who named Sen. Kamala Harris as vice president, the same Senator Harris who is on the Judiciary Committee who will now be questioning the candidate in confirmation hearings.
Among the potential candidates is Barbara Lagoa, 52, a Cuban-American judge from Florida, the state that Trump needs to win. She was named and confirmed in a rare bipartisan vote of 80-15 to the federal Court of Appeals 11th Circuit in 2019. Unlike some nominees from this administration, she has an extensive legal background and has been a judge in state and federal courts.
Her background and positions aside, for Trump, Lagoa’s potential nomination would be a sure sign that this moment is about politics as much as about the direction of the Court. Among other things, Lagoa could become the second Latino justice, following current liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor, and a direct appeal to Latino voters.
Trump wants Florida, and he sees possibilities among Latino voters. Picking her would assure this is about politics.
It’s not the right way to look at a generational change in the Supreme Court, but it does seem the Trump way of making sure this is all about him and re-election – and not about thousands of avoidable American deaths from coronavirus.
Bill Barr Goes full-on right-wing nutjob
Are you kidding me? Sedition? From 1798?
Just in case someone is not persuaded that this Trump Administration is falling off its rocker, the advice from Atty. Gen. William P. Barr to federal prosecutors to use a two-century-old law to stop people – no, specifically “violent” leftist protests outside federal courthouses – from seeking to overthrow the government should make us stop and scratch our collective heads.
For openers, protesting disproportionate police brutality against Black citizens is not calling for the overthrow of the government.
Secondly, there is actual evidence that groups other than Black Lives Matter or the oft-cited, if unorganized “antifa” are not the only ones in street. You heard nothing from Barr about using sedition laws against actual, organized, gun-toting, right-wing, white supremacist nationals who seem actually to want to overthrow the government – as well as to mix it up with lefties in the streets.
Thirdly, sedition laws have not been used over two centuries for good reason: Their Constitutionality runs very close to the edge of First Amendment rights to free speech and assembly that have protected leftists, neo-Nazis, right-wingers, flag-burners and vocal bayers-at-the-moon.
Looking for a definitive reason to deny the Trump team four more years? How about using the law to declare a virtual shutdown of civil liberties and free speech. Barr’s remarks this week were so outrageous that comparing state orders mandating masks and shutdowns for public health to slavery were not even the top line head-slap.
Aggressive Tactics
This has nothing to do with people who break rules about trespass or fire-setting or bottle-throwing,
No, this is the baring of raw power to shut down dissent. And it is a blatant attempt to use the Justice Department to underscore a Donald Trump campaign promise for Law & Order prompted by several localized protests that turn violent only in the middle of the night – a continuation of absolute reinterpretations of law and procedure to promote Trump’s politics.
The wording of the federal sedition statute says it is a crime for two or more people to conspire to use force to oppose federal authority, hinder the government’s ability to enforce any federal law or unlawfully seize any federal property — elements that might conceivably be made to fit a plot to, say, break into and set fire to a federal courthouse, despite evidence that more than 93% of nearly 8,000 Black Lives Matter protests between May and August this year have been peaceful.
Maybe Barr should be looking at those organized Western ranchers, right-wingers all, when they held off enforcement of federal water law enforcement at gunpoint. Or at organized, armed Trump supporters who entered statehouses to threaten the lives of legislators considering laws to require coronavirus masks.
Or he could be looking at Trump administration officials and Republican supporters calling on people to arm themselves for insurrection in the event that Joe Biden wins the election. Or maybe even at the continued use of federal law enforcement and the Justice Department itself as political instruments to advance the partisan cause of a single sitting president seeking reelection, clearly throwing out any separations of power as constitutionally required to get his way in a wide variety of cases ranging from the misuse of U.S. intelligence to the matters of impeachment.
Just who here is seeking the overthrow of government as we have known it for 200 years? FBI Director Christopher Wray told a House committee it is right-wing white militias. Where’s Barr?
I get that Barr wants prosecutors to be aggressive in the case of Portland’s protests, which have involved the setting of small fires at the federal courthouse. Pursue shooters who have emerged aggressively, please. But moving to sedition and its 20-year sentences in the name of liberty and Law & Order? Are we Belarus or Hong Kong?
Overkill
Actually, coincidental to the disclosures about using sedition laws, came news that federal officials had been stockpiling ammunition and devices that could emit deafening sounds or singe anyone within range feel like their skin is on fire to clear Lafayette Square in Washington for that Donald Trump Bible photo op. The disclosures came in The Washington Post from D.C. National Guard Maj. Adam D. DeMarco, who led the brigade there, and filed them as a whistleblower.
Are we nuts all of a sudden as a nation or can we see this as the excess of a bad political campaign? Does Barr think we are idiots? He actually compared his own prosecutors to pre-schoolers and asserted that he and Trump are in charge, not those career prosecutors who make daily decisions in individual cases.
Barr was wrong in citing “a dozen cases” each year in which Black citizens are mistreated; there are 250 deaths at the hands of police this last year. He and Trump are wrong to deny that there are systemic elements to racism in this country and to our policing practices.
The federal sedition law is rarely invoked, and something that does not seem to fit the circumstances of the unrest in places like Portland in response to police killings of Black men. So, too, would be ordering the arrest of the Seattle mayor for allowing a protest to cool itself in that city.
Promoting sedition laws to stop protests is an extremist Justice Department policy. Barr has no business being attorney general.
Trump's payroll tax ploy ploy endangers Social Security — and it will have to be paid back next year
A passing news item about taxes caught my attention as an example of why people can find government so annoying at times.
Perhaps it’s even more so with this particular White House that promises, but then falters on delivery, spreading distrust for the role of government more generally.
About 1.3 million federal workers, 60% of the total, are about to see an increase in pay as the result of that promised payroll tax deferral – but they will have to repay that tax next year since the deferral is temporary. Only those earning less than $100,000 are affected.
If you’re going to do it, Mr. President, shouldn’t we expect that it will be done completely and not be half-baked?
Donald Trump signed an executive order for this deferral and said he had plans to eliminate the tax altogether. But then, he and Congress are not talking. And, so, any deferred taxes now will have to be repaid later.
Meanwhile, businesses across the country basically are gnoring this order since they don’t want to spend extra money to retool payrolls for deductions that will have to be repaid later.
In other words, this particular proposal – apparently offered both as part of economic stimulus of a seriously weakened economy and election ploy – will do nothing except annoy federal workers.
Now, having looked at it, I’m not a fan of cutting the payroll tax. But if you’re going to do it, Mr. President, shouldn’t we expect that it will be done completely and not be half-baked?
Forget Politics
With all the political division in the country, this one seems pretty simple. This is not pro-Democrat or anti-Trump – or the opposite. It’s a simple plea that we do what we say.
The basics here: The payroll tax is a big support for Social Security and Medicare. It takes 12.4% contribution from tiered portions of salary split evenly between employer and employee to a cap. The deferral applies only to people who earn up to $4,000 on a biweekly basis, and less than $104,000 annually.
When Trump announced that we should have a deferral from September to December payrolls, he said he would seek permanent elimination of this particular tax upon his reelection, which, of course, is not assured. Further, he said he was both for and against cutting funds for Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid.
Unions, business, retirees and a wide bipartisan crowd voiced collective unhappiness with his executive order, and few companies have said they would actually do so for such a temporary situation. What it means is that any gain now will result in lower paychecks in 2021.
Moreover, the payroll tax obviously only affects a tax cut for working employees and does nothing to put people back to work. And, it is a back-handed way to undercut Social Security and health services for seniors and low-income people. If Trump wants to do that, he needs to act more broadly and as a major policy debate, all sides agree.
A statement from the Office of Management and Budget said “The president put forward this action to give relief to all Americans during this pandemic,” adding that the executive branch as an employer is “implementing the deferral to give our employees relief as quickly as possible, in line with the presidential memo.”
Now Comes Politics
At base, the move on payroll taxes seems aimed at snubbing Congress, with which the administration is at an impasse over coronavirus aid, and coming up with something that might appeal to voters who just hear the words “tax cut,” and start clapping and voting.
So far, this tax cut is not a tax cut. It is a deferral. Trump’s insistence on using executive orders rather than legislation to accomplish his goals too often ends up with policies that fall short of whatever he wanted in the first place.
Does he mean to short Social Security? Is he accounting for employees who leave the job before repaying the tax? Can he make the cut permanent?
The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service apparently only issued how-to information four days before the order is to take effect, meaning even businesses wanting to comply won’t possibly know exactly how to change their payment systems. One federal employee union said its members might not be able to support paying a double tax next year.
It does make you wonder whether Trump the politician actually knows Trump the president.
I can understand that Trump wants to act, but not that he does not follow through. Even the smaller government that conservatives want should be effective in what it does.
When a tax cut isn't a tax cut at all
A passing news item about taxes caught my attention as an example of why people can find government so annoying at times.
Perhaps it’s even more so with this particular White House that promises, but then falters on delivery, spreading distrust for the role of government more generally.
About 1.3 million federal workers, 60% of the total, are about to see an increase in pay as the result of that promised payroll tax deferral – but they will have to repay that tax next year since the deferral is temporary. Only those earning less than $100,000 are affected.
If you’re going to do it, Mr. President, shouldn’t we expect that it will be done completely and not be half-baked?
Donald Trump signed an executive order for this deferral and said he had plans to eliminate the tax altogether. But then, he and Congress are not talking. And, so, any deferred taxes now will have to be repaid later.
Meanwhile, businesses across the country basically are gnoring this order since they don’t want to spend extra money to retool payrolls for deductions that will have to be repaid later.
In other words, this particular proposal – apparently offered both as part of economic stimulus of a seriously weakened economy and election ploy – will do nothing except annoy federal workers.
Now, having looked at it, I’m not a fan of cutting the payroll tax. But if you’re going to do it, Mr. President, shouldn’t we expect that it will be done completely and not be half-baked?
Forget Politics
With all the political division in the country, this one seems pretty simple. This is not pro-Democrat or anti-Trump – or the opposite. It’s a simple plea that we do what we say.
The basics here: The payroll tax is a big support for Social Security and Medicare. It takes 12.4% contribution from tiered portions of salary split evenly between employer and employee to a cap. The deferral applies only to people who earn up to $4,000 on a biweekly basis, and less than $104,000 annually.
When Trump announced that we should have a deferral from September to December payrolls, he said he would seek permanent elimination of this particular tax upon his reelection, which, of course, is not assured. Further, he said he was both for and against cutting funds for Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid.
Unions, business, retirees and a wide bipartisan crowd voiced collective unhappiness with his executive order, and few companies have said they would actually do so for such a temporary situation. What it means is that any gain now will result in lower paychecks in 2021.
Moreover, the payroll tax obviously only affects a tax cut for working employees and does nothing to put people back to work. And, it is a back-handed way to undercut Social Security and health services for seniors and low-income people. If Trump wants to do that, he needs to act more broadly and as a major policy debate, all sides agree.
A statement from the Office of Management and Budget said “The president put forward this action to give relief to all Americans during this pandemic,” adding that the executive branch as an employer is “implementing the deferral to give our employees relief as quickly as possible, in line with the presidential memo."
Now Comes Politics
At base, the move on payroll taxes seems aimed at snubbing Congress, with which the administration is at an impasse over coronavirus aid, and coming up with something that might appeal to voters who just hear the words “tax cut,” and start clapping and voting.
So far, this tax cut is not a tax cut. It is a deferral. Trump’s insistence on using executive orders rather than legislation to accomplish his goals too often ends up with policies that fall short of whatever he wanted in the first place.
Does he mean to short Social Security? Is he accounting for employees who leave the job before repaying the tax? Can he make the cut permanent?
The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service apparently only issued how-to information four days before the order is to take effect, meaning even businesses wanting to comply won’t possibly know exactly how to change their payment systems. One federal employee union said its members might not be able to support paying a double tax next year.
It does make you wonder whether Trump the politician actually knows Trump the president.
I can understand that Trump wants to act, but not that he does not follow through. Even the smaller government that conservatives want should be effective in what it does.
The Trump-radical Republicans' convention message: 'It's all wonderful!'
Donald Trump blames the sudden appearance of the COVID-19, and the stubborn effects it has created, for blowing the country’s economic success – and for damaging his promised American Greatness.
As a result, we’ve seen an endless parade of announcements to forego safety concerns to go back to work, of would-be treatments and vaccine possibilities, of re-opening efforts that run aground anew as disease spreads.
A basic message in the Republican National Convention this week is that but for the pandemic, Trump had this country on a roll
A basic Republican message in the Republican National Convention this week is that but for the pandemic, Trump had this country on a roll—without mentioning that the roll had begun under his predecessor. Return him for another four years, wink away the pandemic and all that’s ahead is more economic greatness.
Sure, we had low unemployment, and lots of industries seemed to be doing well, though it was unbalanced and hard for lots of people at the lower end of the economy. The sentiment hardly addresses millions out of work.
In any case, it seems horribly unrealistic to just assert that everything is about to bounce back and keep growing. What will emerge is something new that will take a lot of new plans and promises, not the same old ones—regardless of who wins the election.
Now, even that statement belies a lot of anguish in the system: At its best, the successful Trump economy has been tilted heavily toward those already pretty well off – the wealthy, corporations, financial markets and developers.
So, the natural Trump policy has been to cut taxes, regulations and boost private investment and profits that eventually result in more jobs all through the system. Limit health care to those with jobs, cut food stamps and social services and incent those left behind to take underpaid jobs or part-time work to qualify for health care.
Axios.com published a list of Trump economic promises from four years ago that is a useful gauge of progress – or not. The simple truth here is that we might judge Trump's delivery on those promises even without the effects of the pandemic.
What Trump Promised
It’s a fair question if Trump is seeking another four years since his vague promise is to make more of those achievements in the future. He wants to drop payroll taxes and capital gains taxes, for example, make his tax cuts permanent and repeats never-fulfilled promises for a middle-class tax cut, child-care tax credits, and more economic war on China.
Here is some of what Axios reported:
- Trump vowed to "double our growth and have the strongest economy anywhere in the world.” He promises to grow the economy by 4% per year, though in reality, the U.S. economy grew by an average of 2.5% during Trump's first three years, topping out at 3% in 2018 and falling to 2.2% for 2019.
- Trump said he would reduce the national debt, and eliminate it entirely within eight years. Even before the pandemic, it increased.
- Trade was an important set of promises. Trump did renegotiate NAFTA, a bilateral trade agreement with South Korea, and pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. There is disagreement about whether the changes were as extensive as described. Trump promised to decrease the trade deficit, but the national trade deficit has been larger in each of Trump's first three years in office than it was for 2016, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Trade deficits with both Canada and Mexico grew substantially, while the trade deficit with China decreased slightly.
- Tariffs on Chinese imports and the end of theft of American trade secrets have proved more difficult than promised. After two years of tit-for-tat tariffs and stalled trade negotiations, the Trump administration signed a "Phase 1" trade deal earlier this year short of the administration goals.
- Trump said he would "bring back" U.S. manufacturing jobs. U.S. manufacturing jobs rose from 12.36 million in 2016 to 12.87 million in 2019. It's unclear how many of those jobs came back from overseas, though overall, as of July, there were fewer Americans employed in the manufacturing industry than in 2015. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose and is now contracting.
- Despite promises to put miners and steelworkers back to work, the U.S. coal mining industry gained just 200 net jobs between 2016 and 2019. The number of U.S. steel and ironworker jobs increased by 10.3% in that time. A promise that Apple would start manufacturing here has not come about.
And, so?
Nor has the country been drawing promised foreign investment, nor improved climate control measures, nor appreciably increased the ranks of the middle-class. Poverty numbers are up, hunger is up, health coverage is down. The stock market, which Trump often uses as a measure of success, has proved much more volatile.
I’m one who believes that the president of the United States may be a powerful office, but it may not have full control over whether the economy improves overall. There are too many other factors, from weather to markets to, as we now see, pandemics.
But since these economic matters are the fundamental reason to support Trump in particular, and his Republican supporters, it seems useful to know that the promises are a lot more hit-and-miss than Trump will own.
Pandemic surely has at least temporarily reversed some of Trump’s promised economic advancements.
But overall, there is plenty of objective evidence that the promises – even if they were aimed at creating a certain kind of success that leaves many behind – have not been as good as advertised.
As usual, be careful about what you say you support.
Trump is gathering up an ‘illegal’ army to send to the polls — but not to vote
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It has been declared illegal, inappropriate, vague and not his job, but there was Donald Trump again this week promising to send an army of armed sheriffs, off-duty police, attorneys general to loom over physical voting – a hedge, he said, against the voter fraud he can never show.
What?
Until now, Trump’s been decrying the widespread fraud he thinks is possible – including foreign monkeying with actual votes – from mail-in ballots necessitated by the pandemic. Apparently enough judges, postal officials past and present and state officials have sufficiently debunked that idea that Trump has turned to the actual physical vote to intimidate.
The only thing clear to me in all this is that trashing everyone’s vote unless it is a guaranteed Trump vote is the mission for the season. When Joe Biden or other Democrats this last week were decrying an election that has put Democracy itself on the ballot, this is the stuff they were discussing.
As usual, even this bullying campaign comes with the thunder of words, but just a whisper of what actually is possible to achieve, though it actually appears that his team is taking it seriously.
You probably read his announcement as I did: What is Trump talking about? What would this army do, exactly, other than standing around staring at voters, particularly voters of color, to intimidate them? How would sending this army out actually prevent widespread fraud – are they going to check voter signatures (against what?) or fix voting machines that break during the night?
Don’t state officials run elections? Doesn’t the Justice Department and other independent of bi-partisan groups already check up that, say, a precinct doesn’t report twice the number of tallies as registered voters? What fraud exactly does Trump expect to rebut?
Suppressing Votes
Last week, a federal judge in Pittsburgh, a Trump appointee incidentally, ordered the Trump campaign to produce proof of widespread fraud in its challenge of Pennsylvania’s plans to distribute mail ballot applications. The campaign turned in 500 pages, reflecting almost no fraud.
Other states are lining up behind the nine that have always sent out mail ballot applications, out of consideration of public health issues during coronavirus. Still, Trump has bleated about fraud, apparently unwilling to distinguish between ballot applications and actual ballots, which contain multiple confirmation signatures that are checkable against registration records.
Trump says, wrongly, that people may submit mail-in ballots and still show up to vote physically, effectively illegally voting twice. Again, since he votes by mail, perhaps he doesn’t know about checking in with poll workers with signature books.
Trump’s appointment of Louis DeJoy as postmaster general has resulted in upheaval over slowed mail, just before an avalanche of mail ballots. DeJoy faces Congress this week to explain that this isn’t raw politics at work to suppress votes.
This week too, Politico.com reported that in a private meeting days before his inauguration, Trump told a group of civil rights leaders that lower turnout among Black voters did, in fact, benefit him in the 2016 presidential election.
Now, we’ve arrived at an announced tactic of deploying a Trump army.
The Pattern
It’s a pattern to impede how people vote, with comments and flailing directives to undermine confidence in this election in which Trump is behind. Trump has made false claims about of mail-in balloting, has threatened to delay elections, to withhold money from states that send out mail ballots, to cut money for the Post Office.
As it turns out, the president has limited authority to order law enforcement to patrol polling places. Sheriff’s deputies and police officers are local, of course, and a federal law bars U.S. government officials from sending “armed men” to the vicinity of polling places.
The Washington Post reminded us that nearly 30 years ago, a Republican Party program that dispatched off-duty police officers to patrol polling places in heavily Black and Latino neighborhoods in New Jersey triggered accusations of voter intimidation, particularly aimed at people of color. That practice resulted in a federal court agreement, expired two years ago, that restricted how the national GOP could observe voting. Trump apparently is reviving that idea,
Of course, Trump’s exhortations may prompt local officials to act on their own in states where there already are active voter suppression campaigns, like North Carolina and Georgia.
Officially, Matthew Morgan, general counsel for Trump’s reelection campaign, said that “Republicans will be ready to make sure the polls are being run correctly, securely, and transparently as we work to deliver the free and fair election Americans deserve.” The campaign apparently hopes to recruit 30,000 poll-watchers in battleground states.
The Voting Rights Act outlaws the intimidation or coercion of voters, including tactics to deploy sheriff’s deputies and police officers to the polls.
Under federal law, poll-watching has been done by bipartisan or independent civic groups, with a unit of the Justice Department at hand to enter where problems arise.
With all of this going on, both parties are recruiting lawyers by the dozen for the inevitable set of legal challenges that will come after Election Day.
Obviously, an outcome by a substantial majority will make resolutions easier than a close race.
Nothing about a Trump election is ever clear
What in the world is Trump trying to do with TikTok?
So, let's see what we can learn from this case that might apply more broadly.
Much as we might like to do so, the TikTok story cannot be separated from the flailing around Donald Trump's re-election campaign. Trump grabs for a moment to immigration to urban horrors to a new healthcare system. There is no discussion about effectiveness in government, a subject the White House insists should be handled by only listening to its propaganda, not by results.
Trump first said he wanted to ban TikTok in the United States as a national security threat. He argued, without specific evidence, that the Chinese are using it to harvest tons of personal data of Americans. Then, within a day, he relented to allow U.S. ownership of the company as being sought by Microsoft, even while continuing to wave his powers over all things in America.
TikTok is an object to Trump, useful as a political tool, not an actual service.
For those not familiar with it, TikTok is a social media platform mostly used by young people to post silly videos. Its popularity results from its very silliness, and the ease with which one can distort faces, images and videos—including comedian-author Sarah Cooper's funny impressions of Trump.
TikTok is the most well-known of Trump's China-based targets. The app has more than 100 million U.S. users, many of whom joined very recently. That drew the attention of the Treasury Department's Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) which must approve any sale.
Of course, exactly what the Chinese Communist Party apparatus would do with zillions of personal data entries from teenagers is not exactly clear. But in TrumpWorld, we do not want to lose a good chance to bash the Chinese for using technology as low-effort spying on Americans.
Naturally, the idea that the Chinese are building enormous databases of personal information, particularly about our kids, is frightening on its face. But, then, isn't it just as frightening that Amazon, Google, Facebook and now Microsoft are doing the same?
Funny, neither Trump nor House Republicans in a hearing last week showed any concern about that antitrust issue.
Objections all around
The TikTok case has politicians of all stripes up on their hind legs—providing ways to see this specific case in broader terms.
House Republicans want hearings giving Secretary of State Mike Pompeo a chance to rain on the Chinese, business types are excited that Microsoft might renew itself by entering the social media market and Trump has a re-election cudgel, even if he has taken multiple views here. China is the enemy is the basic message, without regard to how that is supposed to work in this case.
The New York Times' Peter Baker had a smart piece outlining how Trump has overflowed the usual political riverbanks with a pattern of interfering with American businesses as part of his view of running the government as if he were running The Trump Organization. "The events followed a pattern that Trump set early on in his presidency, in which some of the world's most powerful companies have found themselves at his whims. . . . Unlike his predecessors, Trump has frequently waded in to berate or praise executives and try to influence their operations."
That sentiment fits neatly into a continuing concern about Trump's unrestrained broadening of presidential privilege.
And The Washington Post highlighted Trump's remarks that the U.S. treasury should collect a portion of the potential TikTok sale for making it possible (or necessary?) – although it was unclear under what authority the White House could demand such a payment. Trump said at the White House that if that sale to Microsoft goes through, the president said, part of the proceeds should be paid to U.S. taxpayers as compensation for operating in America.
Huh?
It is true that companies do routinely pay the costs of a Treasury/CFIUS review of security, though those are capped. Otherwise, someone should remind Trump that we have a system by which companies pay the government to operate. We call it taxes, though since he believes companies should not pay taxes, perhaps he is not familiar with the concept.
Trump said that the United States "should get a very large percentage of that price" of the sale. It would come from the sale — whatever the number is," the president said. "Which nobody else would be thinking about but me. But that's the way I think."
Neither the Treasury nor the White House could offer an explanation.
Lessons?
Maybe this all will just pass away, as most of the Trump talk does. But it does seem important to take note of the directions in which Trump would lead us.
Trump is going to continue to use China as a weapon in the election. Importantly, he is using his ability to make everything an emergency more routine, allowing for a continuing expansion of his powers to tell other countries or U.S. companies what they can or cannot do, and the rest of us that we cannot stop him. Instead, we can appeal to his whim.
What he is doing about TikTok now follows similar pressures a couple of years ago involving ownership of a tech platform called Grindr and the continuing discord over Huawei and ZTE operating 5G networks outside of China.
It does strike me that just on political grounds, the president would be better served if he thought through the issue before speaking. Taking a popular social program from 100 million young people a couple of months before the election might just backfire politically.
It's all enough to make a video parody. But then that would be posted on TikTok.


